PM Justin Trudeau's Canada

[afransen]

End of the day, the fact that you (a successful middle class professional) are kicking the tires on a screwball (politically and culturally) state like Texas, says a lot about the current state of Canada.

It was an impromptu vacation. I would not consider living there, but I was curious about the much ballyhooed better quality of life in Texas. Maybe Austin could tempt me, but that's not where I was (closer to Dallas). The people are friendly, but the preponderance of gated communities, megachurches, giant vehicles did not make me gravitate to the area. One interesting thing was seeing the kids get out of school. The youth were overwhelmingly hispanic. I guess that is the future of Texas.

 

[picard102]

I recently spent a week in Texas. I was assessing cost of living and pay in the area. Groceries were about the same. Some things more expensive than Canada, others cheaper. Lots of 'help wanted' signs, advertising low pay ($11/hour at a dairy queen). Home prices are much lower than here (<300k USD), but I get the sense that this area was not very economically active. The built form is a bit odd: Wide lots, single story ranches, often no gutters. No tax base to support road maintenance so the roads are terrible. Pickup trucks and full-size SUVs everywhere.

and that's before you go bankrupt for a medical emergency.

 

[kEiThZ]

and that's before you go bankrupt for a medical emergency.

Weird how so many people still move to the US despite this apparent risk. It's almost like the middle and professional class in the US are protected against this outcome but some kind of plan that covers for such risks.

 

[picard102]

Weird how so many people still move to the US despite this apparent risk. It's almost like the middle and professional class in the US are protected against this outcome but some kind of plan that covers for such risks.

Weird, it's almost as if people are really bad at risk assessment and don't realize that over half of all bankruptcies in the US are for medical bills, most of which are from middle class american families that had coverage.

 

[Brands]

The US did a good job the inflation reductions act and it is Canada's job to keep up. It is not all peaches and cream in the US. Look at New York City, if you want to see a city of contrasts visit New York City, I have family there so I should know.
You have places overrun by gang violence and extreme poverty, then up the street you have the land of the billionaires.

I am not here to kiss the governments ass. I have been very critical of the government not implementing their clean investment tax credits, because I know that this will grow our economy.
The clean tech industry is a trillion dollar industry, and we must not be left behind, our future depends on implementing these clean investment tax credits.

 

[lenaitch]

I saw this in another forum:

FIRST READING: Liberal plan to quietly delay election would secure millions for their doomed MPs

If held on its originally scheduled date, as many as two dozen Liberal MPs face defeat without qualifying for a gold-plated pension

nationalpost.com

Someone did the math and it would apparently advantage more Conservatives than Liberals. Either way, this smells like fish.

 

[kEiThZ]

Weird, it's almost as if people are really bad at risk assessment and don't realize that over half of all bankruptcies in the US are for medical bills, most of which are from middle class american families that had coverage.

Weird. It's almost like you don't understand statistics and why people don't see that as a huge risk. Half of bankruptcies being medical doesn't mean that half of all people who move to the US, or even half of all people in the US end their life bankrupt. Go ahead, calculate the actual probability of an individual experiencing bankruptcy in the US and then adjust for income level (just Canadian immigrants to the US have higher than average wages).

 

[afransen]

Weird how so many people still move to the US despite this apparent risk. It's almost like the middle and professional class in the US are protected against this outcome but some kind of plan that covers for such risks.

I think private insurance is a false comfort. Lots of horror stories of people who supposedly had insurance being left with large medical bills because they had to go out of plan/network, or went over their maximums.

 

[kEiThZ]

I think private insurance is a false comfort. Lots of horror stories of people who supposedly had insurance being left with large medical bills because they had to go out of plan/network, or went over their maximums.

Quantify "lots".

On balance a middle class professional moving to the US has a much higher chance of leaving behind generational wealth than they do in Canada right now.

I don't think this was necessarily the case for Boomers or even Gen X in Canada. There was a certain trade off. Lower material wealth in Canada for substantially better public services and security. These days you get some horrendous wait times and you might be locked out of the housing market forever, which also happens to be the primary wealth creation and preservation mechanism in Canada. But if you're not inheriting half a million from your parents in Canada, you and your kids are basically hooped in Canada. Might as well take your skills and go to a market where you have a better shot.

Does that mean everything is 100% better in the US? Definitely not. I've lived there. I'm well aware of the advantages and pitfalls. I also know that it's always Canadians who have never actually lived in the US talking about healthcare costs and usually as some kind of defensive response to any other economic comparison. There's a reason so many of our most talented leave. Or are we to believe that all these smart people are just statistically ignorant morons who don't understand the risks they are taking?

Are we going to be saying, "But healthcare...." right as we get doctor and nursing shortages like the 90s? Or we going to have start making tech undergraduates sign contracts like the tech CEOs keep demanding because they don't want to compete with American salaries?

 

[goreckm]

Part of improving quality of life is actually implementing their climate plan. They have 80 billion dollars budgeted over ten years that should be helping to grow our economy.
They need to have a sense of urgency in implementing their clean investment tax credits. It is a major part of rebuilding our economy and creating good paying jobs.

As for polls? The Liberals were leading in the polls in June 2023, then the Bank of Canada started hiking interest rates again, and all the rats started to coming out.

The Liberals need to focus on the economy, and a major part of that is implementing their clean investment tax credits.

No, this isn't going to change anything materially. I think the pandemic showed that solving the climate problem is intractable, especially solving it before the worst impacts hit. If people can't mobilize to deal with an imminent threat, no chance it happens for something that is an undetermined point in the future with unknown impacts. It's horrible, since in reality, it's sentencing billions of people to death, but Europe (and America) will eventually spend trillions on building armed walls / borders to keep climate refugees out over any spending on actually solving the crisis, but you're not going to change human nature. Action will only be taken when people are sufficiently comfortable to not feel the impact of any extra money going towards mitigation, and that's not happening with the slow decline the west is experiencing now.

Also, tax credits and slightly better jobs aren't going to cut it. Right now, the problems are much more deep seated and emotional. People are angry that they can't afford to buy a house where their family or friends live, they're angry because they feel like they won't be able to provide the same life for their kids like they were provided by their parents, and a whole host of other things. You're not getting elected with, "here's a cheque for $200", or offering people some laughable retraining courses. Telling people with a smile on your face that the GDP going up, or some other metrics getting better is just going to get them angrier. To win in these times, you need to speak to peoples' fears, but the libs seem aloof and completely divorced from anything resembling reality.

 

[goreckm]

Weird. It's almost like you don't understand statistics and why people don't see that as a huge risk. Half of bankruptcies being medical doesn't mean that half of all people who move to the US, or even half of all people in the US end their life bankrupt. Go ahead, calculate the actual probability of an individual experiencing bankruptcy in the US and then adjust for income level (just Canadian immigrants to the US have higher than average wages).

It's a risk and a trade-off like any other. Most people, especially young professionals that make the move, are extremely unlikely to suffer medical issues and conditions that are severe enough that they can't do their job, for example. If you have a medical condition that is easily managed with medication and check-ups, that's fine, but, anything requiring time off work, and you're in trouble.

Personally, I have two reasons which are higher up on the list for me for not making the move (and I had a chance several times where I would be paid more than double my existing salary).:
- guns. I can't imagine having my kids go through constant active shooter drills at school, and just be way more worried in general about any person on the street carrying a gun
- work life balance is worse in the states. I guess you have a higher chance at making a lot more money living in the states, but, to what end? You can't take it with you. Nobody wishes they spent more time working while on their death bed. Most things that will make you "rich" in the US will still give you a good life here.

 

[Brands]

s.No, this isn't going to change anything materially. I think the pandemic showed that solving the climate problem is intractable, especially solving it before the worst impacts hit. If people can't mobilize to deal with an imminent threat, no chance it happens for something that is an undetermined point in the future with unknown impacts. It's horrible, since in reality, it's sentencing billions of people to death, but Europe (and America) will eventually spend trillions on building armed walls / borders to keep climate refugees out over any spending on actually solving the crisis, but you're not going to change human nature. Action will only be taken when people are sufficiently comfortable to not feel the impact of any extra money going towards mitigation, and that's not happening with the slow decline the west is experiencing now.

Also, tax credits and slightly better jobs aren't going to cut it. Right now, the problems are much more deep seated and emotional. People are angry that they can't afford to buy a house where their family or friends live, they're angry because they feel like they won't be able to provide the same life for their kids like they were provided by their parents, and a whole host of other things. You're not getting elected with, "here's a cheque for $200", or offering people some laughable retraining courses. Telling people with a smile on your face that the GDP going up, or some other metrics getting better is just going to get them angrier. To win in these times, you need to speak to peoples' fears, but the libs seem aloof and completely divorced from anything resembling reality.

Housing is very important, so is the economy. The inflation reductions act is boosting the US economy, and without it Joe Biden would be losing badly to Donald Trump.
I cannot stress enough about the importance the clean investment tax credits is to the Canadian economy. Honda Canada wants to use one of the tax credits to build an
18 billion dollar EV plant in Ontario. That would be the largest investment in North American history, you see how important it is to implement these clean tax credits.

 

[kEiThZ]

It's a risk and a trade-off like any other.

And one that way too many of our best and brightest are doing. The only reason you don't notice it more, is because the flood of immigrants replaces those who leave. But that's not exactly a recipe for prosperity.

Most people, especially young professionals that make the move, are extremely unlikely to suffer medical issues and conditions that are severe enough that they can't do their job, for example.

Tell that to the folks who these people are statistically illiterate. In the most extreme cases, they can do what all those Canadians of convenience in Lebanon or Palestine or Hong Kong do. Come back to Canada and have us pay the most expensive healthcare bills.

I can't imagine having my kids go through constant active shooter drills at school,

They don't have those here? My kids have had lockdowns and drills. Less common than the US. And far less worrisome. But also not zero.

But again, if this is a driver, you can do what a lot of these families do. Return to raise kids in Canada. By that point, they are already a decade ahead (economically) of their peers in Canada.

work life balance is worse in the states.

Very much debatable. While I was there on a military academic exchange and my wife was working, we really didn't find that. Leave entitlement and working hours were similar.

Arguably, this one is going out the window in Canada for younger Canadians. How many folks you know in their 30s? Multiple jobs is way too common. In the US, I've only seen this hustle in the most expensive cities (New York and SF). And when engineers are doing Uber or real estate on the side, to get ahead, we have a problem. And if they aren't doing multiple jobs, they are constantly job hopping in their careers, to try and get ahead, because that's the bare minimum to simply be able to own a home someday.

Why should we be worried about this? After all, most of our young people won't or can't (wouldn't qualify to) leave. If we replace a talented young Canadian with two immigrants with 50% of the wage potential, not only do average wages drop, but the tax base (thanks to progressivity) deteriorates, and demand for housing and social services goes up. All while they go on to make another country rich. Ultimately, the smartest folks leaving create shortages in professional labour and devastates the tax base the government relies on to give us all the social services we want. This is only going to make the young people left behind here, more angry and resentful. And we're going to see this reflected in our politics.

 

[kEiThZ]

No, this isn't going to change anything materially. I think the pandemic showed that solving the climate problem is intractable, especially solving it before the worst impacts hit. If people can't mobilize to deal with an imminent threat, no chance it happens for something that is an undetermined point in the future with unknown impacts. It's horrible, since in reality, it's sentencing billions of people to death, but Europe (and America) will eventually spend trillions on building armed walls / borders to keep climate refugees out over any spending on actually solving the crisis, but you're not going to change human nature. Action will only be taken when people are sufficiently comfortable to not feel the impact of any extra money going towards mitigation, and that's not happening with the slow decline the west is experiencing now.

Fundamentally, Canadians don't have to care about climate change. That's the truth that nobody talks about. We live in one of the few countries that could potentially be a net beneficiary from climate change. We don't have to worry about mass migration. We don't have to worry about our agriculture getting devastated. They might end up with longer growing seasons! We don't really have to worry about any of our major cities getting flooded. Etc. All of this makes it hard to convince Canadians that climate is a major threat. Very different that say if you live in Europe or the coastal US. So climate action is seen as optional when times are good. That's said. But it's reality.

Also, tax credits and slightly better jobs aren't going to cut it. Right now, the problems are much more deep seated and emotional. People are angry that they can't afford to buy a house where their family or friends live, they're angry because they feel like they won't be able to provide the same life for their kids like they were provided by their parents, and a whole host of other things. You're not getting elected with, "here's a cheque for $200", or offering people some laughable retraining courses. Telling people with a smile on your face that the GDP going up, or some other metrics getting better is just going to get them angrier. To win in these times, you need to speak to peoples' fears, but the libs seem aloof and completely divorced from anything resembling reality.

The LPC Climate policy was one of the few competently executed bright spots and ultimately one of the policies easiest to undo. It gave provinces flexibility. And it rebated 90% of revenue in the backstop provinces. But unfortunately for them, it got put into place just as the worst of cost of living crisis since the 80s hit. In hindsight, the best climate policy would have been to do what BC and Quebec did. Implement carbon taxes and offset other taxes, so that the government is dependent on carbon tax revenue. Very hard to reverse. A $100/tonne carbon tax could completely replace the GST, for example. And it could be increased by $10/yr to overcome declining revenue. Future governments would have found this exceptionally difficult to reverse. The LPC were a bit too innocent to play the long game on this one. They thought sizeable rebates (my family is getting $800+ this year) that pay more than the carbon tax most pay would be enough. Unfortunately, it's easy to put up misinformation that conflates inflation with carbon pricing, that makes those cheques look inadequate.

Ultimately, as you point out, the best thing the Liberals could have done to build support for climate policy is address the most pressing concerns of Canadians. But 8 years in office and they didn't do much about housing while sending immigration rates to the moon.

 

[lenaitch]

We don't have to worry about our agriculture getting devastated.

I largely agree with most of what you say but there is much debate on this part. Climate (temperature, rainfall, etc.) are only part of it; suitable soil is the other part. Warmer temperatures might expand the crop range for places like the Ontario Clay Belt or the Peace Valley areas, but you're not going to turn the Shield or Boreal areas into significant agricultural zones. What limited soil exists is far too acidic except in small pockets. Even now, parts of the Palliser's Triangle in the prairies dances on the limits of being arable.