Recent content by afransen

What you're suggesting would mean having zero subs for a couple of decades, given procurement timelines. We could certainly entertain nuclear attack submarines but that seems like something to pursue later as a nice to have.

Sounds like you're arguing for the split procurement, 212CD for Atlantic/Artic operations and KS-III for Pacific?

I don't think China is ready. But the US is weakening its ability the intervene. China still has to worry about Japan, Korea, etc.

The trouble is it would be off-brand for Carney to engage in nakedly political opportunism by calling an election when it is favourable to his party. You can bet that the Liberals are furiously workshopping narratives that could justify an early election call. Trump making moves to cancel CUSMA...

PP is terrified of an election and his political survival is on the line in avoiding one. It is really telling that he will only act like an adult when he has no alternative.

Is the Hanwha really better? Seems the 212CD is better for patrolling Canadian waters, if that is the priority. I see now that Hanwha plans to build the subs in Canada, I thought they would only be maintained here. That is probably influencing the decision. As far as SAFE goes, there are lots...

I'm curious as the reasoning for this. Carney seems pretty clear eyed about most things, and it seems like the Grippen is not a very good solution for Canada and comes will limited industrial benefits. Better to negotiate participation in one the international 6th gen programs where we can be a...

Splitting the sub order in 2 seems quite unwise. Korea might be complicating matters by offering more substantial industrial benefits and an earlier delivery timeline, but to me it seems like we should go with TK. Perhaps Korea can supply new tanks and artillery systems.

Do lagging left turns even create significant delay for cars? They get the same amount of time, just in a different place in the signal cycle.

At a billion dollars per km for OL, I think we should focus on getting GO Expansion done with strong fare integration and see what that does to travel patterns. That might do a lot to relieve bus lines by intercepting riders in more places. A lot of the suggested alignments are highly...

I think it would have made less of an impression domestically if we didn't see it picked up by foreign press. We are used to Canada getting ignored. And Carney was not really saying anything new in terms of what he calls the 'rupture'. It's what he's been saying for the past year. He was a bit...

That's certainly a take. I think you're filling in a lot of dots that aren't there, though.

You don't get to revise history and say that Carney's Davos speech only had domestic impact. It caused a lot of waves in foreign press and power circles. If it was purely for domestic consumption, he would not have given that speech in Davos.

He would have been hounded by the media until he made a statement. A statement is not really optional for a major military action like this. He cold have been more ambivalent, maybe.

I feel like the era since 2001 has shown that the second order effects are complex and sometimes unpredictable and often make the situation worse. Not to say that we should never intervene, but when we do, we should expect it to be a lot harder and costlier to secure the peace after the fact. If...