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2014 Municipal Election: Toronto Mayoral Race

It's cute how this has devolved into a Munro thread :)

My take on the guy is that he is very smart and knowledgeable and this is always welcome. But the real point is that he is not tapped into some deep vein of objective knowledge about what our transit system should be. He has his own biases and, germane to this discussion, has always been very Toronto-centric (as opposed to regional) in his view, IMHO. He also tends to be a bit retrograde, rejecting some ideas because they're not the way they've always been done.

I'm generalizing and I wouldn't get into a point-by-point discussion with him on any topic but the real point here, is I think, that his opinions be they on SmartTrack or DRL RER, are not reflective of an absolute truth. They're better-informed opinions than most of us have, but they're still just the opinions of an "amateur."

(I don't mean "amateur" offensively. Heck, Olympians are still "amateur" athletes but the fact remains he hasn't worked in any professional capacity as a transit planner etc., as far as I know. On balance, we are still lucky to have him, but he's not infallible.)
 
Not sure if it has been posted, but Global shows a poll-by-poll view of who won each area of Toronto. It shows Chow with a bit higher than the other Ward map showed.

http://globalnews.ca/news/1647117/poll-level-maps-show-torontos-election-in-extreme-detail/

Spacing also had some nice diagrams showing the degree by which the candidates won each Ward.

http://spacing.ca/toronto/2014/10/29/torontos-mayoral-election-four-maps/
http://spacing.ca/toronto/2014/10/30/torontos-mayoral-election-five-maps/
 
BurlOak said:
Not sure if it has been posted, but Global shows a poll-by-poll view of who won each area of Toronto. It shows Chow with a bit higher than the other Ward map showed.

http://globalnews.ca/news/1647117/poll-level-maps-show-torontos-election-in-extreme-detail/

Spacing also had some nice diagrams showing the degree by which the candidates won each Ward.

http://spacing.ca/toronto/2014/10/29/torontos-mayoral-election-four-maps/
http://spacing.ca/toronto/2014/10/30/torontos-mayoral-election-five-maps/
Click to expand...

There's a slightly prettier map here:

http://bigcitypolitics.cartodb.com/viz/c58cc9fc-6136-11e4-a5bb-0e9d821ea90d/public_map

map.JPG


It took me a second to realize that big north pocket of Olivia's support was York U. So, there and the islands are her big strongholds; too bad there aren't more hippies and leftist undergrads spread out across town! Not surprising to also note her strong pull in hipster neighbourhoods. It amuses me she got 81% of the islands and it tells you something that York U went 60% Chow and the adjacent 'hoods went 50-75% for Ford. The university, it's fair to say, is not well-integrated with its surroundings.

As for the fact that around 70% of people in Jane/Finch think Doug Ford would have made the best mayor...it would be easy to insult them but my real takeaway is we need to do a lot more to bring those people into "our" city, because right now they are not feeling part of it.

I'm a bit surprised how much the Fords intruded into the fringes of North York, especially on the Scarborough side.

there's also a funny little Tory stronghold, way up at the top, that I'm pretty sure is the Gates of Bayview apartment complex; rich seniors.

I'm still stunned how Doug pulled in 30-40% in those suburban areas....I really don't think I know anyone who'd even consider voting for Doug but, wow.

Also interesting that as well as the Fords did in Scarborough and Etobicoke, Tory did better along the lake. I guess that's the wealthier part of those burbs.

Probably all sorts of more clever things to take away but those are a few I noted.
 

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I remember canvassing in Wards 4 and 5 with Soknacki, they absolutely hated Ford there and had no clue how Ford Nation got such a strong hold over Etobicoke. Many seemed almost embarrassed that Ford came from their neck of the woods too.

Not surprised they went with the anyone but Ford option.
 
TJ O'Pootertoot said:
It amuses me she got 81% of the islands and it tells you something that York U went 60% Chow and the adjacent 'hoods went 50-75% for Ford. The university, it's fair to say, is not well-integrated with its surroundings.
Click to expand...

Maybe the website has more info, but the legend "Tory Support" is a bit deceiving because you can't show 3 peoples results for the same are (everyone got at least 5% in each zone). I think they mean "margin of victory".

It is also interesting that the inner harbour all voted Chow, even though there are no people on the water. The purple colour should have been only for the islands themselves.
And if the inner harbour was purple, why was the outer harbour not Tory green. This is the colour of the rest of lake Ontario.
 
BurlOak raises an interesting point actually.

The outer harbour evidently doesn't care or is for the airport expansion. It seems as if only the Toronto Islanders are against it.
 
WislaHD said:
BurlOak raises an interesting point actually.

The outer harbour evidently doesn't care or is for the airport expansion. It seems as if only the Toronto Islanders are against it.
Click to expand...

Because airport expansion wasn't the only issue they voted on?
 
BurlOak said:
Maybe the website has more info, but the legend "Tory Support" is a bit deceiving because you can't show 3 peoples results for the same are (everyone got at least 5% in each zone). I think they mean "margin of victory".

It is also interesting that the inner harbour all voted Chow, even though there are no people on the water. The purple colour should have been only for the islands themselves.
And if the inner harbour was purple, why was the outer harbour not Tory green. This is the colour of the rest of lake Ontario.
Click to expand...

The purple poll is for the people on the islands and that green poll is the condo dwellers across the way. The purple doesn't touch the mainland at all and, really, it's such an atypical population there, I think that's what accounts for it.

The islands went 81 Chow/16 Tory/2 Ford and that Green one was 50 Tory/40 Chow/9 Ford.

If you click on the actual map, it shows you the detailed results than answer your Qs. The way the lines are drawn is perhaps a bit confusing but obviously no one is living in the water. :) The darker the colour, the greater the margin of victory, which is why I noted the two areas where she really trounced the others were York U and the islands both of which, I think it's safe to say, are hugely atypical of the rest of the city. I think her failure to appeal to the rest of the city (e.g. everywhere hipsters and students don't live; the people who were obviously voting for her anyway) is what damned her campaign more than strategic voting or anything else. She was given those neighbourhoods as a headstart and she totally failed at her goal of breaking out of them. Looking at North York, she's a pretty consistent 3rd choice (which, as a native NYer, I find wholly depressing) and that's where she really lost. I feel like North York is to Toronto the way Ohio and Florida are in US elections. If you want to win, that's where you have to win.

EDIT: Just to add this map from the 2003 election. Interesting to note that 2 key Ford areas way out in the corners (Ward 1, Ward 42) went to Miller in 2003. Wards 9 (Jane/Finch) and 15 also went heavily from Miller to Ford. Makes you wonder what's alienated those people over the past decade...

Torontowards_-_2003.PNG
 

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I dunno why y'all are taking BurlOak's snark over "no people on the water" seriously--he's just grasping any trolly axe-to-grind-with-the-left he can get.

For balance, might as well snark over the "deceiving" expanses of Ford blue that encompass industrial sprawl and Rouge parkland, okay?
 
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