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President Donald Trump's United States of America

Full Metal Junkie said:
There are many good reasons to want to see Ayatollahs gone.
But any intervention depends on having good options to get it done. Iran is not Venezuela. I don't think such a quick and easy option is on the table.
And I sincerely wish Iran does not turn into Syria 2.0 for years to come.
Click to expand...

They would need to be hit hard, and hit fast.

The only problem is, if the Ayatollahs or their underlings survive they will be a thorn in the side of whoever takes over. Even still, send a couple carrier groups down there as a show of force and call their bluff.
 
Full Metal Junkie said:
There are many good reasons to want to see Ayatollahs gone.
But any intervention depends on having good options to get it done. Iran is not Venezuela. I don't think such a quick and easy option is on the table.
And I sincerely wish Iran does not turn into Syria 2.0 for years to come.
Click to expand...

I am cautiously optimistic that Iran won't be Syria 2.0. You have a massive and young population who is keen to become a stable democracy. It's a small and ossified regime that is more corrupt and extractive than religious trying to hold on. There's no large religious constituency that could take hold, as in Syria. That's the very people young Iranians are battling. However, there's a risk of ethnic separatism in parts of Iran. And the risk that those regions push to split off. If that happens in Baluchestan, the region bordering Pakistan, there's a risk the Pakistanis jump in.

At this point, there's actually not a lot of kinetic attacks the US could do. A lot of the people doing the oppression (the basij) are in the streets and hiding in mosques. Bombing their headquarters won't change much. What the US could actually do is take down the jammers blocking Starlink, they could actually enable some telecom again with electronic warfare assets overhead. That would enable more news getting out. And of course, any US presence means the basij has to worry about the US, not just the protesters.

All that said, I don't trust this administration to do much for the Iranian people or pull this off.
 
kEiThZ said:
At this point, if the US doesn't intervene, the blood bath from the regime if they get the upper hand would be horrific. This might be the one good thing that Trump does as POTUS.
Click to expand...
...they're too busy intervening in Minnesota.
 
kEiThZ said:
At this point, if the US doesn't intervene, the blood bath from the regime if they get the upper hand would be horrific. This might be the one good thing that Trump does as POTUS.
Click to expand...
If they pull it off, they'd be doing the world a massive favour, and also remove another pesky ally off the chessboard of Russia and China in the process, isolating them even further. This is a golden opportunity decades in the making...
 
...nope, the US in no position playing world cops. Nothing really comes good out of it when they do. Can't believe I am having to say this.
 
kEiThZ said:
All that said, I don't trust this administration to do much for the Iranian people or pull this off.
Click to expand...
That's my worry as well. Can't trust them to ever do the right thing. Ever.
My hope is that there are enough competent grownups left in the Pentagon to actually put together some good options and to pressure, neigh, coerce the administration into accidentally managing not to pick the bad ones.
It's not like anyone in the Trump admin is capable of masterminding the Maduro capture. Someone in the Pentagon came up with the plan and executed it to perfection. So there is that...
 
Towered said:
If they pull it off, they'd be doing the world a massive favour, and also remove another pesky ally off the chessboard of Russia and China in the process, isolating them even further. This is a golden opportunity decades in the making...
Click to expand...

In 2009, Obama abandoned them after encouraging them and they were slaughtered.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2006070573718266170

What's truly ironic is that "Obama" has a meaning in Persian relevant to them:

time.com

Iranians Hope Obama Lives Up to His Name

So convinced was one friend that Barack Obama wouldn't win the U.S.election that she offered to wager money with anyone in the small crowdgathered around...
time.com time.com

Full Metal Junkie said:
That's my worry as well. Can't trust them to ever do the right thing. Ever.
My hope is that there are enough competent grownups left in the Pentagon to actually put together some good options and to pressure, neigh, coerce the administration into accidentally managing not to pick the bad ones.
It's not like anyone in the Trump admin is capable of masterminding the Maduro capture. Someone in the Pentagon came up with the plan and executed it to perfection. So there is that...
Click to expand...

The Venezuela operation is revealing though. It shows that military competence can't make up for strategic incompetence. That SOF pilot who took 3 wounds to his leg and was a lead planner must be wondering what the point was.

They are so obsessed with self-interest that it makes it hard for them to think through strategic gain. And given his preference for dictators he probably low key sympathizes with the Ayatollahs.
 
kEiThZ said:
In 2009, Obama abandoned them after encouraging them and they were slaughtered.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2006070573718266170

What's truly ironic is that "Obama" has a meaning in Persian relevant to them:

time.com

Iranians Hope Obama Lives Up to His Name

So convinced was one friend that Barack Obama wouldn't win the U.S.election that she offered to wager money with anyone in the small crowdgathered around...
time.com time.com



The Venezuela operation is revealing though. It shows that military competence can't make up for strategic incompetence. That SOF pilot who took 3 wounds to his leg and was a lead planner must be wondering what the point was.

They are so obsessed with self-interest that it makes it hard for them to think through strategic gain. And given his preference for dictators he probably low key sympathizes with the Ayatollahs.
Click to expand...
Obama equally screwed the people of Ukraine and its nascent swing towards legitimate democracy, doing nothing to help as Russia invaded Crimea.
 
Posters complain about EBT posting propaganda and then post tweets from a literal genocide supporter.
 
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