Milaisacat
Active Member
We are purposely booking any trip we can on Porter out of Hamilton. We want the service, so we're putting out money where our mouth is.
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Hamilton International Airport
- Thread starter Branden Simon
- Start date
JakeLRS
New Member
I try to do as well, I’m fortunately doing okay in this silent recession and can spend the few extra bucks to fly out of Hamilton. However, I do have some family facing budget tightness and will take the $40 savings per person by flying into Toronto and taking the GO bus back. I’m sure this is the case for many others as well.
JakeLRS
New Member
I can only hope these get going soon…
Outbound YHM-YEG load is 41 (31%).
Spoke with one of the ground crews, states this is the worst time of year for most airlines. Westjet loads also light. There have been some flights that were really bad load factor wise for PD. However, it is the calm before the storm before the holiday rush comes in.
Outbound YHM-YEG load is 41 (31%).
Spoke with one of the ground crews, states this is the worst time of year for most airlines. Westjet loads also light. There have been some flights that were really bad load factor wise for PD. However, it is the calm before the storm before the holiday rush comes in.
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Tim MacDonald
Senior Member
The holiday rush is about three weeks. 30 percent LF shoulder season or not is abysmal - especially when you've got the only metal YHM-YEG. And not necessarily all of those 41 pax are revenue pax. If that is what it is like in a market where they can dictate terms, you can only imagine what its like in markets like YYZ where others are calling the shots and dictating the pricing and you're competing with much larger aircraft with better operating economics. This is unsustainable and points in only one direction. At some point there will be a liquidation. I think they will be lucky if they are not losing 10-15 million a month although it is probably higher with a 48 tail jet fleet. It really is a shame since I've heard that they have a great onboard product.
JakeLRS
New Member
Discussion with the FA, even the YVR load today was abysmal (45%).
Looking at tomorrow, Halifax loads are soft as well.
I recall when Flair was flying into YHM, they would have loads under 50% (I enjoyed my poor man’s business class a couple of times), flair even flew YKF-YEG a few times with a load factor of under 10%, and flairs margins were way less, given they were selling seats at almost zero revenue.
Fortunately for Porter, they have deep pockets and I’m sure the airport is giving them some sort of incentive to fly out of the region this winter.
We’ll see though, I think we’ll see a diminished domestic offering next winter if loads continue to be abysmal. I’m hoping the Sun flying does okay amid the US/CAN tensions, poor dollar value and poor economy.
I decided to mess with AI, and it suggested that Porter needs to make $218 per passenger to break even on a full flight. Definitely not making close to that during shoulder season. I’m impressed they haven’t scaled flights further back.
Porter has indicated they intend to serve Hamilton long-term, but won’t be afraid to scale back or delay service, as we’ve seen here and across their network.
JakeLRS
New Member
Jetbridges still not in operation.
Florida routes start tomorrow, Mexico starts next week!
Decided to dig into some of the load factors for tomorrow since my previous adventure made me curious.
based on the available seats on the porter booking website; actual loads may be slightly higher
Dec 11 YHM-YEG: 45%
Dec 12 YHM-MCO: >80% inaugural
Dec 12 MCO-YHM: ~23% inaugural
Dec 12 YHM-YHZ: ~40%
Dec 12 YHZ-YHM: ~67%
Dec 12 YHM-YVR: ~52%
Dec 12 YVR-YHM: >80%
Dec 12 YHM-YYC: >70%
For comparison, I checked out YKF-YHZ (80%) & YYC (90%) with flair tomorrow, their overall LF is higher, but notably, the fares they charging are significantly less.
Also, the previous president of YHM (and former revenue manager for Lynx) is now a high rank for Flair. I doubt it, but perhaps their could be a Flair return to YHM.
Florida routes start tomorrow, Mexico starts next week!
Decided to dig into some of the load factors for tomorrow since my previous adventure made me curious.
based on the available seats on the porter booking website; actual loads may be slightly higher
Dec 11 YHM-YEG: 45%
Dec 12 YHM-MCO: >80% inaugural
Dec 12 MCO-YHM: ~23% inaugural
Dec 12 YHM-YHZ: ~40%
Dec 12 YHZ-YHM: ~67%
Dec 12 YHM-YVR: ~52%
Dec 12 YVR-YHM: >80%
Dec 12 YHM-YYC: >70%
For comparison, I checked out YKF-YHZ (80%) & YYC (90%) with flair tomorrow, their overall LF is higher, but notably, the fares they charging are significantly less.
Also, the previous president of YHM (and former revenue manager for Lynx) is now a high rank for Flair. I doubt it, but perhaps their could be a Flair return to YHM.
Tim MacDonald
Senior Member
I added some emphasis to your remarks above, @JakeLRS . This is exactly why the E2s are the wrong jet for the Canadian market. With 180ish seats compared to 132 on the E2s, Flair can afford to set pricing lower on a good bucket of seats and still make a good buck due to lower unit costs. Can you imagine trying to compete to Cancun with 132 seats out of YYZ when everyone else is flying much bigger metal?
Those are some pretty horrific numbers. Are you sure that the YHM-MCO numbers aren't reversed? It would be odd to have a high LF northbound this time of year on an inaugural.
The shocking thing about Flair is that they have less than half the tails that Porter does, yet can offer for sale as many seats through daily aircraft utilization rates double Porter. Flair seems to be doing a decent job of flying the airplanes in their fleet. They seemed to have found a new religion after the acting CEO was made permanent.