My impression of this announcement is bad news for the short term but good news for the long term.
Saying that the work "will allow for 60-minute AD2W service to Kitchener" is effectively announcing that hourly service will be delayed by about a decade compared to its originally-planned start date of September 2023. (I'm optimistially assuming it will take about 8 years to complete all the planning and construction for the widened corridor based on Metrolinx's track record)
That 2023 date might have been thrown out, but I wonder if it was ever seriously credible. Certainly, if a deal had been inked with CN back around 2018-2019 - at the time when Phil Verster claimed it was his highest priority - the most important portion, between Bramalea and Georgetown, might be much further along than now. ML hasn't exactly rocketed ahead with other projects in the same timeframe, so it was probably as wishful a date as lots of others.
It's certainly grating that ML didn't bother doing the work that they knew was necessary on their own portion of the line (although there was some remedial work done back when ML first purchased the Silver-Kitchener portion). No excuse for how long it has taken to execute Breslau, Guelph, and Acton. For that matter, the Harvest Road layover yard was being planned 15 years ago! Nevertheless, the CN portion is the throttling obstacle to any real upgrade, even if other parts fall into place.
The "requirement" to build a dedicated corridor along the CN line is a product of negotiations with CN, not a physical limitation of the track capacity. CN's existing line is fully double-tracked with segments of triple-track, which is already quite generous for the 2 trains per hour per direction we're talking about here (1 CN/Via, 1 GO to Kitchener).To run hourly service all they technically need to do is finish the work they already started:
- Breslau passing track (complete)
- Guelph passing track and second platform (platform complete and connecting track just starting construction)
- Acton passing track (starting construction soon, I think?)
- Georgetown second platform and passing track (in the tender pipeline, but can't remember its status).
- The new double-tracked station in Kitchener is required for the planned/existing half-hourly peak service but isn't technically required for hourly off-peak.
If you scroll up, the procurement on most of those was documented, and has slipped badly. Most of that work has not even started, so it's beyond a "just finish it" proposition.
I can't blame CN for refusing to allow any further upgrade to service without a deal being signed. Too much room for Ontario to back down or defer funding, leaving CN absorbing the added trains and Ontario having no incentive to complete the investment. ML and Ontario are just not trustworthy and a bait-and-switch would have been predictable.
I'm hoping that the announced service upgrades are a sign that CN has found good reason to believe ML will finish this work. I wonder what penalty clauses there might be in event of cancellation or scaleback.
I would have hoped that as part of the "in good faith" short term enhancements, CN would have been asked to allow at least one counter peak trains.... but since ML hasn't done the necessary work on their own section, I suppose that is moot.
The fact that AD2W service is still another decade away makes it especially frustrating that they set up the Breslau passing track such that every train needs to slow down to 72 km/h even when they're not meeting any oncoming train. Trains previously cruised through Breslau at up to 112 km/h. If we're looking for ways to speed up service, eliminating the slow zone that Metrolinx created artificially for no apparent reason seems like fairly low-hanging fruit. They just need to replace the switch west of Breslau so that the main route leads to the south track rather than the north.
I have been led to believe that the east end of that siding was meant to be temporary and the double track will soon extend further east, eliminating the east end diverging turnout. That item is supposedly past procurement, but I'm not totally sure of how quick it is to happen. But yeah, it's a really dumb configuration that never should have been done.
It does sound like the end plan has a "do it once and get it right" theme, which for ML is an achievement.
- Paul
news.ontario.ca
