kEiThZ
Superstar
I think it's important to recognize that polls by are reasonably accurate. Even if they don't nail down the exact percentages and seat counts.
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2022 43rd Ontario general election (June 2, 2022)
- Thread starter W. K. Lis
- Start date
zang
Senior Member
Apathy doesn’t get counted in polls. That’s why Ford won this time around.
adma
Superstar
You're as obsessed with her as Deppistas are with Amber Heard.
Oh, and Doly Begum won, and it looks like the PC ceiling is low 80s, rather than 100 plus. So maybe you're letting your axe to grind go to your head.
Richard White
Senior Member
It's personal. Let's just say we have a history.
kEiThZ
Superstar
It actually does. That's what "Likely Voter" modeling is about.
denfromoakvillemilton
Senior Member
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In what universe is losing 4 elections a good thing?
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Horwath just announced her resignation as leader. Passing the baton, she called it.
Ah crap, Wong Tam won.
adma
Superstar
It's a parliamentary caucus, not a government.
Jonny5
Senior Member
That didn't take long. Horwath quits.
Northern Light
Superstar
A few additional observations:
-A dive into several ridings is intriguing......there are of course some seats the NDP and Libs are just eeking out (though not many in the latter case!) ....
But, the PCs are just barely winning in several 905 constituencies. K-W also shows 2 seats going Conservative, but in very close races.
- The Greens must be heartbroken losing Parry Sound-Muskoka.........they came within ~2,000 votes, and 4%; but under near ideal circumstances (no Liberal running).
- Beaches-East York did not end up showing the Conservatives as competitive, instead landing them a distant third. Mary Margaret McMahon is one of the few 'good news' stories for the Liberals tonight, but it wasn't a romp, tight w/the NDP
- The PCs have a scare on-going in Barrie-Springwater, where the sitting Atty General is leading, barely over a Liberal challenger.
- Mark Saunders career in politics is cut short indeed, unable to win on a very good night for the PCs overall.
- The Ford name in York-South Weston, only good for a ~700 vote margin.
- Edit to add: The Libs at this moment are leading the NDP in popular vote by 0.1%............but the seat totals tell a different story.
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ShonTron
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A couple of shockers in the midst of a not unpredictable result:
- Timmins going PC, dumping long time NDP MPP Gilles Bisson
- Brampton getting swept, after electing 3 of 5 NDP MPPs in 2018. That's not looking great for Jagmeet Singh. Brampton has been screwed by the Ford PCs, so I'm really surprised to see them do well.
- The NDP losing 2 of 3 seats in Windsor-Essex.
Otherwise, an unfortunate, yet mostly expected result.
- Timmins going PC, dumping long time NDP MPP Gilles Bisson
- Brampton getting swept, after electing 3 of 5 NDP MPPs in 2018. That's not looking great for Jagmeet Singh. Brampton has been screwed by the Ford PCs, so I'm really surprised to see them do well.
- The NDP losing 2 of 3 seats in Windsor-Essex.
Otherwise, an unfortunate, yet mostly expected result.
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Jonny5
Senior Member
And there's the other.
denfromoakvillemilton
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adma
Superstar
Hey, I told you that she wouldn't be "pushed"; it'd be at her own pace.
And so many people in here acting as if she was on a fast track to 3rd party status--hey, I warned you something like this *might* happen. (But the real chumps of the evening must be *all* those "vote strategically, vote Liberal" types...)