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November 2020 US Election

Well today is the day. Here's an election prediction from 538.

I'm feeling a strange mixture of excitement and dread in equal proportions.
 
A lot less triumphal feeling than in 2016 where a lot of people were blindsided.
 
I've discussed, in the past, the predictions of 'polly' the artificial intelligence for measuring public opinion by Advanced Symbolics.

For better/worse, right or wrong; here is its final prediction for 2020 U.S. Presidential election.

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Texas flipping seems improbable; but then again, so did a Trump presidency.
 
A 10 percentage point spread seems unlikely. But the election seems to be a bit of a turnout story. Turnout in democratic areas is way up.
 
I hope they don't ever - it's a security nightmare.

AoD

I agree, certainly at the national and provincial level. I know it has been piloted in some municipalities but, although municipal government more closely touches the day-to-day lives of most of us (roads, transit, garbage, etc.), it is not the foundation of our liberal democracy. I have a hard time envisioning a foreign entity, or even a well-heeled developer going to the extent that would be required to hack a municipal election (there are far easier ways to exert that type of influence as we have all witnessed over the years). There is a lot more at stake with the more senior governments.

Online voting at the national or provincial level would require a level of robustness to ensure credibility that I don't think is currently achievable.

Even our mail-in procedure involves a process initiated by the voter which I get the sense is much more regulated than at least some of the US jurisdictions.

For all that's at stake in an election at the national or provincial level, given advanced polls and accommodation for those that require it, a little effort on each of us every few years seems little to ask.
 
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I agree, certainly at the national and provincial level. I know it has been piloted in some municipalities but, although municipal government more closely touches the day-to-day lives of most of us roads, transit, garbage, etc.), it is not the foundation of our liberal democracy. I have a hard time envisioning a foreign entity, or even a well-heeled developer going to the extent that would be required to hack a municipal election (there are far easier ways to exert that type of influence as we have all witnessed over the years). There is a lot more at stake with the more senior governments.

Online voting at the national or provincial level would require a level of robustness to ensure credibility that I don't think is currently achievable.

Even our mail-in procedure involves a process initiated by the voter which I get the sense is much more regulated than at least some of the US jurisdictions.

For all that at stake in an election at the national or provincial level, given advanced polls and accommodation for those that require it, a little effort on each of us every few years seems little to ask.

Agree - something this foundational should not be messed with (how conservative of me!) unless there is a legitimate and justifiable need to do so. Online voting has not been demonstrated to be ready for prime time - and in the absence of any urgent issue, I am not sure why we should deviate from what we are doing now - something that is fast, reliable and efficient. The integrity of the vote is sacrosanct in a democracy - nothing that will put it in doubt should ever be done.

AoD
 
I don't know what to expect. I got some gay friends in the US, they voted Trump. My boyfriend's uncle is an immigrant from India, became a US citizen 20 years ago, and he and his wife voted for Trump.

It is extremely sad that there are millions of people in the US, voting against their own interest simply because they are being misinformed.
 
I don't know what to expect. I got some gay friends in the US, they voted Trump. My boyfriend's uncle is an immigrant from India, became a US citizen 20 years ago, and he and his wife voted for Trump.

It is extremely sad that there are millions of people in the US, voting against their own interest simply because they are being misinformed.

Well, there are always those who believe or dream that they are on the right side of "the other", until they don't anymore.

AoD
 
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Here is my prediction. I have Trump winning Ohio and Arizona. I think Biden ekes out a win in Georgia due to a strong turnout from African Americans. I suspect PA to be very tight but the Dems will do better in the Philly and Pittsburgh suburbs than 2016.

I'm optimistic that the election will be more or less called by morning.

Capturejj.PNG
 
I don't know what to expect. I got some gay friends in the US, they voted Trump. My boyfriend's uncle is an immigrant from India, became a US citizen 20 years ago, and he and his wife voted for Trump.

It is extremely sad that there are millions of people in the US, voting against their own interest simply because they are being misinformed.

Trump and Modi are like jam and peanut butter.
 

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