Toronto's Future Population

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Does anyone have an idea of what Toronto's future population is? Or will be?

All I have is this from Ontario.

Region & Census Division 2001 2006 2009 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
Greater Toronto Area (GTA) 5,297.3 5,798.1 6,113.8 6,313.5 6,843.7 7,405.7 7,983.2 8,563.0 9,139.2
GTHA 5,807.4 6,321.9 6,644.2 6,849.4 7,392.6 7,969.7 8,566.7 9,167.3 9,765.3


Toronto 2,584.0 2,610.6 2,677.7 2,737.3 2,854.6 2,965.1 3,071.0 3,171.1 3,267.6
Durham 527.6 584.4 613.7 632.4 691.1 761.5 839.1 920.1 1,002.8
Halton 390.9 457.8 492.3 517.5 589.1 669.6 755.9 845.6 936.3
Peel 1,032.1 1,213.5 1,313.7 1,367.9 1,532.8 1,708.6 1,887.4 2,066.2 2,243.8
York 762.7 931.9 1,016.4 1,058.3 1,176.1 1,300.9 1,429.7 1,560.1 1,688.8
Hamilton 510.1 523.8 530.4 535.9 548.9 564.5 583.4 604.3 626.1

Any differnet projections or sorces out there?

 

[Dan416]

Interesting that Peel is anticipated to add nearly a million people by 2031. Toronto is only expected to add 600,000. (I'm comparing 2009 to 2031).

 

[ladyscraper]

Interesting that Peel is anticipated to add nearly a million people by 2031. Toronto is only expected to add 600,000. (I'm comparing 2009 to 2031).

People are idiots and a lot of idiots can fit generic monopoly homes wherever there is room.

 

[Redroom Studios]

^^^ funny! expanding on your point I was going to say there is no doubt that our population will continue to grow significantly, but the unknown is whether we will build our cities any more intelligently.... ladyscraper thinks not!

p.s. - can you also supply projections for Niagara Region?

 

[Irishmonk]

Who knows, really, by 2036 the mandatory short form census might be gone as well. Anyway, long term population guessing has always been a bit of a mug's game.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

^^^ funny! expanding on your point I was going to say there is no doubt that our population will continue to grow significantly, but the unknown is whether we will build our cities any more intelligently.... ladyscraper thinks not!

p.s. - can you also supply projections for Niagara Region?

Niagara 426.8 442.5 442.9 448.1 463.2 480.8 500.8 521.0 540.5
Dufferin 53.1 56.5 58.0 59.3 63.4 68.6 74.2 79.9 85.4
Simcoe 392.8 438.5 453.7 467.4 508.2 555.0 605.4 656.0 705.8
Peterborough 130.9 137.6 138.6 141.0 147.9 155.8 163.8 171.5 178.
Kawartha Lakes 72.0 76.9 76.6 77.5 80.5 83.6 86.9 90.1 93.1
Waterloo 456.7 498.7 518.2 536.0 583.3 633.5 685.0 736.3 786.8
Wellington 195.0 208.6 214.4 218.8 231.2 244.9 260.2 276.3 292.7

 

[jn_12]

I'm not sure how Niagara is going to grow by 100k over the next 25 years. I'm sure the province would like it to happen but its three biggest cities are in no position to grow that significantly. St Catharines has run out of room to grow and isn't the greatest candidate for intensive urbanization based on the politics of the city. The region has been the hardest hit in the province in terms of the economy, and neither Welland nor Niagara Falls are really in a position to grow immensely (Welland having been stagnant for 40 years). Otherwise, you're pretty much asking Thorold, Fort Erie, Pelham, NOTL (Ha!) and Port Colborne to grow by 50+% each. I just don't see that happening especially with the cancellation of the mid-pen highway.

 

[Rowe]

Won't the Greenbelt help with higher intensification? Only Peel, Waterloo and Wellington Region have a lot of room to grow out.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Waterloo is outside the greenbelt

 

[Rowe]

Waterloo is outside the greenbelt

Well yea, I'm pretty aware of the greenbelt and places to grow plans. I was just pointing out that within the GGH that those Regions have the room to grow out. Halton also has room to grow too.

 

[lead82]

Do you guys thing that all this population growth for the region or do you think our quality of life will suffer with the loss of farmland, greenspace and paralysing traffic and smog?

 

[ssiguy2]

Much of these figures also come down to politics not just economy especially in the GTA. Much of the GTA growth is due to international immigration who's levels depend on the federal government that is in power. Also any renewed separatist movement in Quebec could swell Toronto's numbers at the expense of Montreal.
Economics also plays a part obviously. In SW Ontario up until 3 years ago Windsor was to have outpaced London in growth to 2031 and nearly caught up to it in total CMA population. What a difference a few years can make. Windsor actually declined in population last year and it has just stabilized but no real growth is scene for years to come. CMA London is growing faster now than in the past 20 years at 1.1% or 6,000 people per year.
That doesn't sound like much is well beyond most CMAs in Ontario and is in the same category as Ottawa & KWC.

 

[Rowe]

Do you guys thing that all this population growth for the region or do you think our quality of life will suffer with the loss of farmland, greenspace and paralysing traffic and smog?

It is a huge deal that is hard to address. The issue in this region is they have never really worked together. Toronto and everyone around it did not really focus on regional growth.. just their own. The GTA and the Greater Golden Horseshoe has had such a hard time working together as ONE region. The suburbs need the city and the city needs the suburbs.

Thankfully the GTA and the GGH has one of the first regional plans and the largest greenbelt in Canada (and I think the world). So I don't think that farmland and greenspace will be an issue especially when greenspace is a key factor in quality of life.

As for transportation.. Toronto has the issue of control. Most cities around the world pay for their on systems and upgrades simply because they have more control of their taxes. So unless the Province/Feds are ready to pay for the needs of Canada's largest economic region... Toronto might always have those issues to deal with in the future.

OR becoming the Province of Toronto.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Well yea, I'm pretty aware of the greenbelt and places to grow plans. I was just pointing out that within the GGH that those Regions have the room to grow out. Halton also has room to grow too.

Oh Ok, My town (oakville), is supposed to have 225,000 in 2030.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

http://torontoist.com/2009/03/futurist_toronto_in_2020.php

The City's Urban Development Services Department predicts that by 2020 the GTA’s population will have ballooned to 6.9 million, and that Toronto itself will have grown to approximately 2.9 million [PDF]. Most of this growth will have come from the immigration of visible minorities, who will account for 47.9 to 53.4 per cent of the GTA. Although Toronto will have grown by thirteen per cent, the city is confident that it can add another 187,226 households capable of housing more than 400,000 people [PDF].