PM has bombed the bridges to the party's past
PM has bombed the bridges to the party's past
By JEFFREY SIMPSON
UPDATED AT 10:59 PM EST         Saturday, Mar. 27, 2004
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We were supposed to have an election. It was to be called at the end of this week, or the beginning of the following one. Instead, we will have Liberal Party advertisements.
Read the Ipsos-Reid poll in today's Globe and Mail. It explains why there will be advertisements instead of an election. The numbers suggest the Liberals can't win a majority.
It wasn't supposed to be this way. The Liberals, with their new Prime Minister, were going to roll to another majority triumph. Not just a routine majority, but a whopper to eclipse any of former prime minister Jean Chrétien's.
The plan was simple, although deeply flawed. Break every link with the previous government. The day the new cabinet arrived would be the first day of a brand new government rather than another day of an ongoing Liberal government.
There would be a breathlessly expressed agenda full of vaulting ambitions, a Speech from the Throne, endless exposure to the popular and unsullied Prime Minister Paul Martin, a popular budget, an unpopular Conservative leader (the stiff Stephen Harper or somebody even less attractive), an election call and maybe 200 Liberal seats.
Gains in Quebec would more than offset Liberal losses in Ontario. They would gain a handful of seats in Atlantic Canada and, for the first time in a generation, penetrate various parts of Western Canada beyond the little Liberal beachheads in B.C.'s Lower Mainland, and in Winnipeg.
When Jean Chrétien left office, the Liberals were safely in majority-government territory. The arrival of Mr. Martin pushed the party's fortunes even higher.
Now Ipsos-Reid puts the Liberals at 38 per cent, minority-government territory. That's exactly where they were in the same poll two weeks ago, after the full force of the sponsorship scandal. The budget didn't help, according to Ipsos-Reid. Nor did Stephen Harper's arrival. Nor did all those seminars and speeches by Mr. Martin across the country.
The Liberals have their own polls, of course. The Martin crowd is transfixed by polls. They don't go to the bathroom without checking polls, holding focus groups. They gather people in rooms for the Finance Minister's budget speech quite literally to monitor their instantaneous reaction to his every utterance. Pardon the borrowed cliché, but this is government of the polls, by the polls and for the polls.
But the polls, at least the public ones, stink. Look a little behind the numbers. Ipsos-Reid asked Canadians if they will "definitely not vote for the Liberal Party under any circumstances." An amazing 47 per cent agreed.
Amazing, because the Liberals used to be the second choice of so many Canadians. Tories who couldn't abide the Reform or Alliance parties could consider voting Liberal. New Democrats who didn't support their party could vote Liberal. A lot of uncommitted and politically uninterested voters, if they bothered to vote, could consider the Liberals.
And yet, almost half the country -- and more than half of Quebeckers (56 per cent) -- tell Ipsos Reid they won't vote Liberal under any circumstances.
The opposition parties have hammered the Liberal brand name. They always do, usually unsuccessfully. This time the Liberals hammered their own brand name, or rather the Martinites did.
They gambled that by making a bad situation (the sponsorship scandal) worse, by inflating the whole affair into the biggest scandal ever to hit Canadian politics, that they would ultimately be redeemed by a grateful public.
If housecleaning were needed, the Martinites bet the government that Canadians would want them do it. We shall see. Ipsos-Reid finds that 45 per cent of Canadians (predictably more in B.C. and Alberta than elsewhere) say they may vote Conservative "to clean house in Ottawa and teach the Liberals a lesson."
Here's the bet. Do Canadians want the opposition Conservatives to clean house, or the Martinites? For the Martinites to win that strange bet, they have to outdo the Conservatives in stoking public anger and suggesting remedies. They have to out-opposition the opposition, a rather bizarre strategy for a government.
These times were supposed to be Liberal times. All the economic indicators were solid, and governments don't lose under those circumstances.
Other countries were sending emissaries to Canada to learn how, alone in the G8 group of industrial countries, Canada eliminated deficits, ran surpluses, reduced unemployment, raised productivity, dropped the national debt, trimmed social programs and maintained social cohesion.
That was yesterday, before the sponsorship scandal, and before the Martinites bombed the bridges to their party's past and the good things it had accomplished.
Now, as Mr. Martin says every day, the government needs a radical shakeup, a completely new way of doing things, a culture "shock" (he used the word yesterday in Winnipeg).
Given the poll results, it's rather his government that needs a radical
shakeup.jsimpson@globeandmail.ca
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