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In store for '04: Politics
Forget the island airport. The booby traps with the potential to disable David Miller lie elsewhere
By John Barber
UPDATED AT 2:38 PM EST         Saturday, Dec. 27, 2003
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'Last year, it was as if we were standing on the edge of a cliff," the father of our modern municipality, Frederick (Big Daddy) Gardiner, once said, assessing a difficult past in light of a promising future. "But this year I feel as if we have taken a huge step forward."
Yes, predictions are perilous. But let's not shirk our civic responsibility by failing to leap boldly into the unknown this New Year. We're going there anyway -- and fast, given the pace of this amazing city -- so we might as well try to keep up.
The easiest prediction is that Toronto will continue to thrive. Given the snowball-like accumulation of municipal policy disasters over the past decade, it's hard to appreciate how heedlessly positive life in this city continues to be for the majority of citizens.
But after a huge, confidence-shaking downturn in the early nineties, our can't-lose boomtown is back on track. Every economic indicator, from job growth to housing starts to vacancy and interest rates, is locked on positive and shows no signs of change.
Even the marvellously transformative condo boom, despite persistent rumours of a looming bust, rumbles on. Cranes and earthmovers are busy on every other corner throughout the central city and beyond, eliminating the scourge of surface parking lots and promoting urban life with a degree of conviction unimaginable a decade ago.
Meanwhile, the city region as a whole continues to attract newcomers as fast or faster than any other on the continent. Drawing on a hinterland that has made the quantum jump from regional to global, Toronto is less a place now than it is an unstoppable social reaction. If the 20th century belonged to Canada, the 21st century is Toronto's.
With the help of even a modest dose of political leadership, which is not too much to hope for, the city is set to soar.
Just as certainly, though, the storm clouds of everyday strife will quickly close in to obscure the sunny big picture. We now know that the leadership emanating from Dalton McGuinty's Queen's Park will be modest indeed and that, as a result, there will be no swift action to relieve Toronto's fiscal crisis. Expect the usual budget hysteria this spring, resolved by the usual last-minute bailout along with the usual dark warnings about unsustainable finances. That won't change. And expect the premier to take more of the blame than the mayor. That won't change either.
That two cents of the gas tax for transit? Its delivery will get all tangled up with long consultations to establish a new regional transit authority, and that's where the money will end up -- subsidizing money-losing bus routes in the 905 belt -- leaving Toronto transit riders twisting from their straps as usual.
Maybe it's just pathetically gullible to put more faith in Paul Martin, but faith is all we've got. It's not as if we can threaten to withhold our votes in the federal election expected this spring. The latest Alberta invasion, this one in the sheep's clothing of the new Conservative Party, promises to be as weak as the last, leaving only Jack Layton's New Democrats with any hope of stealing a seat or two in Toronto and Southern Ontario. But the odds still favour solid red.
That won't stop Mr. Layton from putting up a strong fight in his rematch against popular incumbent Dennis Mills in Toronto-Danforth. Working as usual in concert with wife, Olivia Chow, who is likely to seek her own rematch against Tony Ianno in Trinity-Spadina (and to parachute gracefully back into city council in the event that she loses), the NDP leader wants to change Canada by creating a new urban base for his party.
But the fight to export Jack and Olivia to Ottawa full-time will be intensely local, focusing on the waterfront and Mr. Mills's role in the parenting of the Toronto Port Authority, which has emerged as a major irritant in local public life -- both in fact and as a symbol of general federal fecklessness.
In that respect, the federal election campaign could prove uncomfortable for Mayor David Miller, who is bound by party loyalty to support Mr. Layton but, like the rest of us, is bound equally to trust the potentially non-feckless Mr. Martin.
But don't expect that to spoil the new mayor's honeymoon, which looks fair to last at least a year. Thanks to the island airport issue, he has already forcefully demonstrated his political mastery and exposed the weakness of his opposition on council. Neither the upcoming budget crisis nor the tax hike that will result will weaken the ardour. Toronto is proud to have a competent and principled mayor.
And fuggedabout the city being sued by the port authority, the would-be airline or anybody else over the cancellation of the island-airport bridge. The port authority is now on a short leash and will remain there at least until Mr. Mills's fate is decided -- perhaps, if there be justice under heaven, forever.
Meanwhile, airline promoter Robert Deluce is threatening to extract untold millions from city coffers by suing the federal government. The dispute will continue to be messy, but increasingly trivial.
Any booby traps with the potential to disable Mr. Miller probably lie elsewhere. One lying in full view is the city's fair-wage policy, which ensures that non-union city contractors pay wages equivalent to union contractors. Whether he likes it or not, Mr. Miller's followers are organizing a move to extend the policy to cover all contracts issued by the city's new housing company. That will cost millions. Just wait till The Toronto Sun gets back from vacation -- assuming it ever does.
Then there is the police service, its board temporarily deadlocked and Chief Julian Fantino ostentatiously refusing to play ball with the new regime: an almost certain recipe for consternation.
All that aside, the mayor's greatest challenge in 2004 will be to demonstrate progress on the waterfront. Getting rid of the port authority could well become a crusade, but it won't create visible changes. He needs to cut some ribbons -- and as luck would have it, there are now several in the final stages of preparation. The big story of 2004 could well be the emergence of the Toronto Waterfront Revitalization Corporation as a functioning agent of positive change.
Ah, what lovely vistas open up on the edge of a cliff.
© 2003 Bell Globemedia Publishing Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Forget the island airport. The booby traps with the potential to disable David Miller lie elsewhere
By John Barber
UPDATED AT 2:38 PM EST         Saturday, Dec. 27, 2003
Advertisement
'Last year, it was as if we were standing on the edge of a cliff," the father of our modern municipality, Frederick (Big Daddy) Gardiner, once said, assessing a difficult past in light of a promising future. "But this year I feel as if we have taken a huge step forward."
Yes, predictions are perilous. But let's not shirk our civic responsibility by failing to leap boldly into the unknown this New Year. We're going there anyway -- and fast, given the pace of this amazing city -- so we might as well try to keep up.
The easiest prediction is that Toronto will continue to thrive. Given the snowball-like accumulation of municipal policy disasters over the past decade, it's hard to appreciate how heedlessly positive life in this city continues to be for the majority of citizens.
But after a huge, confidence-shaking downturn in the early nineties, our can't-lose boomtown is back on track. Every economic indicator, from job growth to housing starts to vacancy and interest rates, is locked on positive and shows no signs of change.
Even the marvellously transformative condo boom, despite persistent rumours of a looming bust, rumbles on. Cranes and earthmovers are busy on every other corner throughout the central city and beyond, eliminating the scourge of surface parking lots and promoting urban life with a degree of conviction unimaginable a decade ago.
Meanwhile, the city region as a whole continues to attract newcomers as fast or faster than any other on the continent. Drawing on a hinterland that has made the quantum jump from regional to global, Toronto is less a place now than it is an unstoppable social reaction. If the 20th century belonged to Canada, the 21st century is Toronto's.
With the help of even a modest dose of political leadership, which is not too much to hope for, the city is set to soar.
Just as certainly, though, the storm clouds of everyday strife will quickly close in to obscure the sunny big picture. We now know that the leadership emanating from Dalton McGuinty's Queen's Park will be modest indeed and that, as a result, there will be no swift action to relieve Toronto's fiscal crisis. Expect the usual budget hysteria this spring, resolved by the usual last-minute bailout along with the usual dark warnings about unsustainable finances. That won't change. And expect the premier to take more of the blame than the mayor. That won't change either.
That two cents of the gas tax for transit? Its delivery will get all tangled up with long consultations to establish a new regional transit authority, and that's where the money will end up -- subsidizing money-losing bus routes in the 905 belt -- leaving Toronto transit riders twisting from their straps as usual.
Maybe it's just pathetically gullible to put more faith in Paul Martin, but faith is all we've got. It's not as if we can threaten to withhold our votes in the federal election expected this spring. The latest Alberta invasion, this one in the sheep's clothing of the new Conservative Party, promises to be as weak as the last, leaving only Jack Layton's New Democrats with any hope of stealing a seat or two in Toronto and Southern Ontario. But the odds still favour solid red.
That won't stop Mr. Layton from putting up a strong fight in his rematch against popular incumbent Dennis Mills in Toronto-Danforth. Working as usual in concert with wife, Olivia Chow, who is likely to seek her own rematch against Tony Ianno in Trinity-Spadina (and to parachute gracefully back into city council in the event that she loses), the NDP leader wants to change Canada by creating a new urban base for his party.
But the fight to export Jack and Olivia to Ottawa full-time will be intensely local, focusing on the waterfront and Mr. Mills's role in the parenting of the Toronto Port Authority, which has emerged as a major irritant in local public life -- both in fact and as a symbol of general federal fecklessness.
In that respect, the federal election campaign could prove uncomfortable for Mayor David Miller, who is bound by party loyalty to support Mr. Layton but, like the rest of us, is bound equally to trust the potentially non-feckless Mr. Martin.
But don't expect that to spoil the new mayor's honeymoon, which looks fair to last at least a year. Thanks to the island airport issue, he has already forcefully demonstrated his political mastery and exposed the weakness of his opposition on council. Neither the upcoming budget crisis nor the tax hike that will result will weaken the ardour. Toronto is proud to have a competent and principled mayor.
And fuggedabout the city being sued by the port authority, the would-be airline or anybody else over the cancellation of the island-airport bridge. The port authority is now on a short leash and will remain there at least until Mr. Mills's fate is decided -- perhaps, if there be justice under heaven, forever.
Meanwhile, airline promoter Robert Deluce is threatening to extract untold millions from city coffers by suing the federal government. The dispute will continue to be messy, but increasingly trivial.
Any booby traps with the potential to disable Mr. Miller probably lie elsewhere. One lying in full view is the city's fair-wage policy, which ensures that non-union city contractors pay wages equivalent to union contractors. Whether he likes it or not, Mr. Miller's followers are organizing a move to extend the policy to cover all contracts issued by the city's new housing company. That will cost millions. Just wait till The Toronto Sun gets back from vacation -- assuming it ever does.
Then there is the police service, its board temporarily deadlocked and Chief Julian Fantino ostentatiously refusing to play ball with the new regime: an almost certain recipe for consternation.
All that aside, the mayor's greatest challenge in 2004 will be to demonstrate progress on the waterfront. Getting rid of the port authority could well become a crusade, but it won't create visible changes. He needs to cut some ribbons -- and as luck would have it, there are now several in the final stages of preparation. The big story of 2004 could well be the emergence of the Toronto Waterfront Revitalization Corporation as a functioning agent of positive change.
Ah, what lovely vistas open up on the edge of a cliff.
© 2003 Bell Globemedia Publishing Inc. All Rights Reserved.