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Fort York & Music Garden - first area to collapse in C1?

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mig174

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So I was browsing around realtor.ca and took a look at the area that probably has seen the highest number of new condos built in the past 5 years. It's astounding how many of these properties were bought pre-construction just for the purposes of flipping them later. I'll let the screenshot speak for itself:

jrTUr.png


This is using a price range of 150k to 500k. It gets worse if you increase the upper limit. The 66 property bubble is 215 Fort York Blvd and the 54 property bubble is 38 Dan Leckie Way.

This is the amount of listings for rent in the same area (likely underestimates total):

PwdIo.png


Thoughts?
 
the number of properties shown are definitely underestimated ...
for some reason not all listings are posted on MLS's 'public' site but available on MLS's realtor site

btw, what is 38 Dan Leckie Way -- is that Panorama?
 
I'd like to see what those numbers looked like 3 years ago.

That area is renter/buyer central....so I'm not shocked that there's a lot of product. I also think that area gets some good traction as well. A lot of youngn's who are looking to rent without breaking the bank and would like a condo that's new and has a crapload of ammenities will look in this area. I know a number of 1st time buyers who have bought in that area. I also know a few who are renting there as well.

$1100 a month for a 1 bed downtown is a great price.
 
Your number for 215 Fort York includes 219 Fort York listings, which is an older phase of Waterpark City.
 
cdr108 said:
that's for a 500 SF unit ... not exactly huge and comparable to the $2.25 PSF for new rentals in the city based on SF.
Click to expand...

Sadly, that's still a good price.

A 700 square foot unit for $1300 might be a better value but it's still an extra $200 and a lot of renters aren't willing to pay that much.

Don't underestimate the amount of people who will live in 500 sqft.
 
JayBee said:
I'd like to see what those numbers looked like 3 years ago.

That area is renter/buyer central....so I'm not shocked that there's a lot of product. I also think that area gets some good traction as well. A lot of youngn's who are looking to rent without breaking the bank and would like a condo that's new and has a crapload of ammenities will look in this area. I know a number of 1st time buyers who have bought in that area. I also know a few who are renting there as well.

$1100 a month for a 1 bed downtown is a great price.
Click to expand...

You can say I'm one of those "youngn's", but that $1100 is low for a reason. Any decent grocery store is far away and the ones that are close are ridiculously overpriced. This means you either need a car or make multiple trips to far away grocery stores which is painful. Or you eat out. That's extra nuisance and $$ that many people wouldn't like. Until a nofrills/foodbasics/cheap grocery store is built in the area, the $1100/month renting demographic wouldn't find the area too attractive. This also pretty much removes the student as a potential renter - and that's huge! UofT alone has 50k students downtown. If people don't own cars, this means $121/month extra on the TTC at least in the winter months.

I don't see why anybody would rent 500sqft 1 bedroom in that area for $1100/month when they can just as easily pay $1350 at 500 Sherbourne for a bigger apartment, sit on top of nofrills and be within walking distance of everything. Or pay $1450 or so to live on Bay/College and be in the middle of everything.
 
mig174 said:
You can say I'm one of those "youngn's", but that $1100 is low for a reason. Any decent grocery store is far away and the ones that are close are ridiculously overpriced. This means you either need a car or make multiple trips to far away grocery stores which is painful. Or you eat out. That's extra nuisance and $$ that many people wouldn't like. Until a nofrills/foodbasics/cheap grocery store is built in the area, the $1100/month renting demographic wouldn't find the area too attractive. This also pretty much removes the student as a potential renter - and that's huge! UofT alone has 50k students downtown. If people don't own cars, this means $121/month extra on the TTC at least in the winter months.

I don't see why anybody would rent 500sqft 1 bedroom in that area for $1100/month when they can just as easily pay $1350 at 500 Sherbourne for a bigger apartment, sit on top of nofrills and be within walking distance of everything. Or pay $1450 or so to live on Bay/College and be in the middle of everything.
Click to expand...

It's funny you mention those areas, I'm leasing a unit to a student for $1500 at Bay/College.. 500sqft.

With that said...$400 is a lot of money especially if you're a student. Some students/renters just aren't willing to spend the extra money just to be in a better area or close to cheaper grocery stores. No Frills grocery stores tend to be in lower income or transitional neighbourhoods. A lot of people don't want to live in these areas... Cityplace and the surrounding area has some positives that you're discounting. It's right off the highway...it's right by the water, close to the Skydome/CN Tower...close to the entertainment district. You can find cheap groceries in Chinatown and Kensington Market

I have a friend that just bought at Cityplace even though I told him not to. Some people like these buildings and the area....It is what it is.
 
JayBee said:
It's funny you mention those areas, I'm leasing a unit to a student for $1500 at Bay/College.. 500sqft.

With that said...$400 is a lot of money especially if you're a student. Some students/renters just aren't willing to spend the extra money just to be in a better area or close to cheaper grocery stores. No Frills grocery stores tend to be in lower income or transitional neighbourhoods. A lot of people don't want to live in these areas... Cityplace and the surrounding area has some positives that you're discounting. It's right off the highway...it's right by the water, close to the Skydome/CN Tower...close to the entertainment district. You can find cheap groceries in Chinatown and Kensington Market

I have a friend that just bought at Cityplace even though I told him not to. Some people like these buildings and the area....It is what it is.
Click to expand...

you have a point - there is definintely a premium paid to live @ Bay & College. Bay & College is also preferentially situated near expensive grocery stores, like Metro. I disagree that NoFrills is only in transitional/poor neighbourhoods. They're quite common in affluent areas in the suburbs, just not downtown. Also, there literally is NO difference between nofrills and metro in terms of the product you get. You just end up paying 150-200% of the price for no other reason than the place may look nice.

Living East and North of Bay/College puts the student at a "sweet spot" in terms of accessibility to major universities, food, hospitals and the rest of downtown. Places like Radiocity, Tridel, 500 Sherbourne. Anything north of Gerrard is generally quite a good and safe area. I don't know... I'm currently looking for a 1br to rent downtown myself and have decided squarely against CityPlace. Too far from everything. Don't want to spend 40 minutes walking to school/stores or investing $$ into a car + parking or TTC pass. Would rather spend a little more (maybe $100 really, after you factor in the added expense of TTC and car), but not be too inconvenienced.
 
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