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Alberta...usurps Ontario's job title

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samsonyuen

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From: www.theglobeandmail.com/s...TPBusiness
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Alberta usurps Ontario's job title
HEATHER SCOFFIELD
ECONOMICS REPORTER
Alberta has usurped Ontario's position as the top creator of high-quality jobs, a new study suggests.

"Like in many other economic indicators, Alberta has emerged as the nation's leader in terms of the level of the quality of its labour market," says an analysis of an employment quality index by CIBC World Markets.

The index for the country as a whole slid in the last half of 2005, despite rampant job creation that drove unemployment to a 30-year low. But since January, the index has picked up, with high-paying jobs outpacing the creation of low-paying jobs, says economist Benjamin Tal.

The index is now at its highest since 2002, and the rate of improvement is the fastest since the index was created in 1994.

On a provincial level, Ontario's index is rising, but not nearly as strongly as Alberta's. The resource-rich province was 7.6 points above the June national average, while Ontario was just 2.4 points above the national average.

The explanation lies, of course, in oil. The boom has led to a 15-per-cent rise in high-quality jobs over the past year, Mr. Tal said. And as the engineers and financiers move in, they demand services, leading to the creation of lower-quality jobs. Low-quality jobs have been increasing at a 12-per-cent pace.

"Not only is the level of Alberta's job quality the highest among the provinces, but it is also improving at the fastest pace," the paper says.

In Ontario, however, the manufacturing sector has been shedding jobs. Also, self-employment has been on the rise in that province, and typically, self-employment does not pay as well nor is it as stable as paid employment. Elsewhere in the country, self-employment has been declining.
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Is it just me, or is the Globe's sucking up of the West getting annoying?
 
The sales rep from the printer I use is from Alberta. He says the Wendy's in Red Deer is paying $14 an hour to their workers. Crazy!
 
It is getting annoying not a day passes without an article of this nature.
 
McDonald's had to shut down a couple of restaurants because they couldn't find people to work.
 
Of course, only Eastern Bastards like Eric Reguly could write articles like this one, from the Globe Business section:

ENERGY
Time for a reality check, Alberta

ERIC REGULY

Alberta is the epicentre of unbridled optimism. With high oil prices and a resource touted as second only to Saudi Arabia's, anything is possible, even sating the continent's voracious energy appetite. That's because oil sands output is set to soar, so keep buying SUVs!

If there were any time for a reality check, this is it. Yes, oil has climbed into the mid-$70s (U.S.); yes, oil sands production is rising with it; yes, Alberta continues to promote itself as an endless oil gusher. The great flaw in the scenario is costs. They are monstrously, laughably, direly out of control. Imagine budgeting $200,000 for a house reno and the final bill comes in at $1-million. That's the oil sands in financial shorthand.

If prices continue to rise, the Alberta production forecast will turn into a farce, if it hasn't already. The oil sands are expected to pump out three million barrels a day by 2015, up from about 1.1 million today, according to the National Energy Board. The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers says total Western Canadian output will reach 4.7 million barrels a day by 2020. The figure includes some conventional (non-oil sands) production, which is in rapid decline.

Good luck. Outrageous costs, a chronic lack of workers and unproven technology for heating the tarry oil underground are creating bottlenecks. Projects are being delayed or put on hold. And all this is happening with oil near record prices. Imagine the potential production crunch if prices drop. In a world of $40 to $50 oil, some of the newer projects would make dubious returns, energy analysts and consultants say.

The Athabasca Oil Sands Project, owned by Shell Canada, Chevron Canada and Western Oil Sands, is latest example of runaway costs. Last week, Western announced the cost of adding 100,000 barrels a day of production would rise by about 50 per cent, from $7.3-billion (Canadian) to $11-billion. The expansion's original estimate was $3.3-billion. Western shares fell by more than 13 per cent in the two days after the warning about "unprecedented increases in capital costs."

Why have costs gone from expensive to outrageous? Labour costs are up about 50 per cent in the past five years. Worse, the quality of the workers is not necessarily improving with the price. Demand for skilled workers, such as pipe fitters, is so strong that inexperienced tradesmen and women are getting hired. The steep learning curve creates delays, which in turn puts more pressure on costs. Then, once they're trained, they get raided by a rival operator.

Infrastructure prices, from steel to truck tires, are rising in tandem. The Alberta government is partly to blame for the infrastructure shortage. If there's one part of the planet that seems ideally suited to a railway, it's the 435-kilometre stretch between Edmonton and Fort McMurray, the boom town in the heart of oil sands country. Forget it. The Ralph Klein government has taken a hands-off approach to infrastructure development and the highways to the oil sands are clogged with trucks. Small wonder that some of the big projects are billions of dollars over their original estimates.

While the oil producers are making heroic efforts to reduce or eliminate costs, the outlook is not encouraging. That's partly because the next wave of development is underground. This means burning a fuel, typically natural gas, to create steam, which is injected underground to heat up the guck so it can be pumped to the surface. This process is much more expensive than using giant shovels to scrape the oil sands from the surface. Since the technology hasn't been perfected in some of the underground recovery schemes, production can suffer. The output from Suncor's big Firebag project, for instance, is about one-third less than originally expected. Shell's Peace River project has experimented with various technologies for the better part of three decades.

In spite of the horrendous costs, the oil sands operators are pushing ahead, using brute force to finish expansions and start others. They can do so because oil prices are going their way. Oil at $73 (U.S.) a barrel allows investors to tolerate cost overruns. What if oil drops by $20 or $30? That would hurt profit margins, of course, because the rising costs have altered the economics of any project for the worse.

Biggies like Imperial Oil, Shell and Suncor are fully financed and fully committed to their expansions. The mid-tier players -- among them Petro-Canada, Husky Energy and Devon Energy -- might see their oil sands operations under severe financial pressure if oil hit $40. Sales or mergers would not be out of the question.

Investors should beware the rising costs and the potential for lower production growth rates even if oil prices don't fall. If they do fall to the price levels of 2004 and 2005, share prices will be sure to follow.

AoD
 
I seem to recall reading that Eric Reguly is from out west.
 
These kinds of articles can be categorized in two ways. There is the jealous eastern who think believes Alberta is somehow ignorrant to its own situation and seems to somehow hope that everything will implode on them. Then their is the westerner who gloats about their good fortunes and trumpets the west as some economic super power above all laws of economics that will eventually come to rule Canada.

Coming next week...an article about a different shitty fast food place paying $13/hour and an article on why Alberta will implode and how only King Ontario will be able to save it from ruin.
 
Ed,

Not sure where he was born, but he's living in Toronto now in the Beach (the Globe real estate section did a profile of his home reno project awhile ago). Regardless, he's still an Eastern bastard working for a "national" newspaper based in Toronto :p

AoD
 

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