Richard White
Senior Member
Placeholder for the 46th Canadian Election
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46th Canadian Federal Election
- Thread starter Richard White
- Start date
afransen
Senior Member
Give it 6 months.
nfitz
Superstar
With the NDP holding the balance of power, I don't see them having any interest in an election for a while, given their financial situation, and their lack of leader - or heck, even a front-runner.
The only name I can think of is Rachel Notley.
(I can't even remember the name of the Ontario NDP leader!)
Richard White
Senior Member
Marit Stiles.
The NDP should be looking at a merger if they were smart.
They lost official party status, their leader is toast and merging with the LPC would guarantee (for the time being) a majority government.
In any case however, with both Pierre Pollievre and Jagmeet losing their seats I don't believe another election is imminent.
T3G
Senior Member
Who exactly would benefit from the NDP merging with the Libs? Let's not move closer to being a two party state.
Northern Light
Superstar
I wouldn't think so; having said that, if they formally prop up the Liberals, their base votes will want to see them get 'something' for it. So something in the NDP platform that was not in the Liberal platform.
Further expansion of pharmacare comes to mind.
Now, being leaderless, and having had a poor electoral result, there isn't much negotiating strength there. But there is some.
I actually think this would be an excellent choice for them, provided her French is sufficient to purpose.
Richard White
Senior Member
Northern Light
Superstar
Good question; I don't see a clear answer; but might argue, based on last night's outcome, that with a less divisive leader, it would be the Conservatives.
I don't agree.
I also don't agree. When you look at many seats where the NDP vote collapsed last night, like Hamilton-East Stoney Creek, like Windsor, and the Sault........ a lot of those votes went to the Conservatives.
The residual NDP vote, 1%, 2%, 3% etc. might do the same if team orange weren't an option, or might just stay home. If they weren't going to vote team red last night, would they ever?
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Northern Light
Superstar
Let me give you an alternative Richard.
If the Reform Party merges with the Conservatives, they'll be unstoppable..........a United Right will hold government indefinitely.
Did it? It turns outs the lesser party in that merger (the PCs) didn't feel welcome in the new party, while some stayed, many left to go to team Red, while others have just been out in the political wilderness.
Richard White
Senior Member
T3G
Senior Member
I think that, considering how much of the vote actually tends to go to the NDP, concerns about splitting the vote are something of a red herring.
As is the idea of giving a more potent voice to those who want a leftist government. I should think it would achieve the opposite. What if you have problems with Liberal governance? Under your proposal, the only recourse such people would have is to vote for the Cons. Having diversity of thought and a plurality of options is always a superior option for a healthy democracy.
In reality, a "merger" of the Libs and NDP would actually result in the NDP just ceasing to exist as a political party. When a merger of a larger and smaller entity occurs, the smaller entity very seldom retains any part of its old identity.
adma
Superstar
Another argument against "uniting the left" (and I'm purposely using quotes here): it dumbs down elections. Whereas in not-so-purely-binary democracy, there's room for weird nuance that makes perusing the polling maps and poll-by-poll stats weirdly fulfilling in a way that offers insight into the electoral-and-beyond genius loci--one which can inform future campaigns and strategies on *all* sides, as well as other extra-political social-geography purposes. Or, regardless of whether I'd *support* the party or not (are you kidding?!?), I'd rather have a 2021-esque election where Maxime Bernier's PPC can get 6.5% in a given riding than a 2025-esque election where all of the LibCon candidates *combined* can't get 6.5% in that same riding.
It's the same reason why when it comes to French presidential and legislative elections, the first round of voting is invariably more "interesting" than the second round of voting, even when the second round is a decisive dead-heat fight-to-the-finish (or when far-right forces dominate the first round). It's like comprehending the richness of a journey as opposed to putting all the onus upon the prosaic dull thud of the destination. Then again, when it comes to those who are geographically, cartographically, and statistically challenged, the journey might be a source of trauma and anxiety: "where am I going, where does this all lead to"...
It's the same reason why when it comes to French presidential and legislative elections, the first round of voting is invariably more "interesting" than the second round of voting, even when the second round is a decisive dead-heat fight-to-the-finish (or when far-right forces dominate the first round). It's like comprehending the richness of a journey as opposed to putting all the onus upon the prosaic dull thud of the destination. Then again, when it comes to those who are geographically, cartographically, and statistically challenged, the journey might be a source of trauma and anxiety: "where am I going, where does this all lead to"...
afransen
Senior Member
When I posted, it looked like they might need NDP+Greens to have a bare majority. Where things landed might be a bit more stable.
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
Probably even more stable than the last parliament - they are short only 3. Perhaps I should be expecting some defections...
AoD
Midtown Urbanist
Superstar
I'm willing to leave my prediction here that this minority government will govern like a majority for the next few years. The NDP financial situation isn't such that they would be able to campaign again for a while, so they will likely end up propping the Liberals for the foreseeable future.