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PM Mark Carney's Canada

PET’s NEP was a disaster which through policies like price caps aimed to take oil wealth out of Alberta rather than boost it up.

Key NEP Issues and Consequences:
  • Western Alienation: The policy was viewed as the federal government hijacking Western wealth to serve Eastern Canada, cementing long-term resentment.
  • Economic Downturn: The policy coincided with a, and contributed to, an economic collapse in Alberta, with unemployment soaring from 3.7% to over 12% and massive rises in bankruptcies.
  • Reduced Oil Revenue: Price controls and new taxes limited profits for producers and reduced royalty payments to the province of Alberta.
  • Industry Flight: The hostile investment climate caused investment to move from Canada to the United States.
  • Capital Cost: The Alberta provincial economy is estimated to have suffered $50 billion to $100 billion in losses.
  • Industry "Canadianization": The policy targeted lowering foreign ownership in the oil sector, which caused conflict with industry players.
It being a disaster is just evidence of Canadians historically being bad at state-owned enterprises.

Evidently the Norway model didn't lead to the same issues and consequences. In a different world where Canada pulled off something like Norway, Alberta would have to be allowed to keep more of its wealth.

Equalization payments are a hot topic even in this world.
 
It being a disaster is just evidence of Canadians historically being bad at state-owned enterprises.

Evidently the Norway model didn't lead to the same issues and consequences. In a different world where Canada pulled off something like Norway, Alberta would have to be allowed to keep more of its wealth.

Equalization payments are a hot topic even in this world.
A bit of apples-and-oranges comparison. Constitutionally, Norway has no sub-national levels of government; although it does have internal administrative areas and municipalities. In Canada, natural resources are within provincial jurisdiction; although anything inter-provincial, like pipelines, are federal.
 
I was in Norway back in 2022. Our young tour guide said they’re proud of the nation’s move to electric cars and renewable energy sources. Of course all this was and is financed by Norway’s petrodollars. I suggested that Norway was sort of like a drug dealer, selling dangerous goods that the market wants, but never tasting the merchandise themselves. If Norway’s oil is so terrible for the environment why don’t they leave it in the ground, oh, right they need the petrodollars. The country is an exercise in hypocrisy that Canada might as well follow.
Not sure I agree that it is hypocrisy. They produce oil to satisfy the demand of other countries, which they would largely consume from different sources if not Norway. Meanwhile, they provide a market for decarbonization technology to develop and be deployed more broadly.
 
Not sure I agree that it is hypocrisy. They produce oil to satisfy the demand of other countries, which they would largely consume from different sources if not Norway. Meanwhile, they provide a market for decarbonization technology to develop and be deployed more broadly.
It's hypocrisy to the people and politicians who railed against Canada expanding LNG exports in the last decade. To the tune of losing $20+ billion a year in LNG exports for BC alone. Delays and cancelled projects galore.


 
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Broadly agree. Think they can put up a fight in Rosemont with the right candidate.
Plus, now that Carney has his majority, I can picture voter cynicism re any overwrought government bid to bolster it; the NDP isn't a force to "stop" in the same way the Cons or the Bloc are; there's no real urgency to cast a protest vote with the Bloc when the NDP's the sitting party; and for all the naysaying re the post-Layton/Mulcair NDP in QC, they actually have *not* done that badly relative to the bigger picture in Montreal, even if they haven't been able to go beyond that single seat--there's definitely an "urban progressive synergy" with QS. You might even say that in a way that even goes beyond Boulerice, Montreal's now a better town for the federal NDP than Toronto is...
 
In line w/all the recent Sovereign Wealth Fund chatter here, the Carney Government has just announced one this morning.

It will directly seed 25B in capital over 3 years, with a mandate to deliver market returns on investments.

In additional there will be some sort of vehicle for public participation in which Canadians can co-invest, with a guaranteed principle.

The announcement is here:


The backgrounder is here:


From the above, in order:

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A bit of apples-and-oranges comparison. Constitutionally, Norway has no sub-national levels of government; although it does have internal administrative areas and municipalities. In Canada, natural resources are within provincial jurisdiction; although anything inter-provincial, like pipelines, are federal.
Well said. That doesn't mean that Ottawa does not have a role to play in Alberta's oil industry, but that should be as booster and problem solver to any barriers, such as negotiating with FNs and provincial legislatures, while promoting Alberta (and Canada) to the world petroleum market. Imagine if instead of a NEP that capped prices and transferred wealth out of Alberta, PET built a NEP in partnership with Alberta with the primary goal of boosting the province's wealth, in the understanding that what's good for Alberta is good for the country. Such a plan might have seen federally-mandated oil pipelines built to the Pacific and more importantly from Alberta to the refineries in Atlantic Canada. This would boost jobs and infrastructure investment across the country - leading Canada into the 1980s with a solid national energy plan, and much less Western alienation. Another objective could be diversifying oil shipments to new markets.
 
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It's hypocrisy to the people and politicians who railed against Canada expanding LNG exports in the last decade. To the tune of losing $20+ billion a year in LNG exports for BC alone. Delays and cancelled projects galore.


The good thing is that it's never too late to correct these historical failures. We're now shipping LNG out of Kitimat, BC and Saint John, NB, with another LNG port building in Squamish, BC.
 
In line w/all the recent Sovereign Wealth Fund chatter here, the Carney Government has just announced one this morning.

It will directly seed 25B in capital over 3 years, with a mandate to deliver market returns on investments.

In additional there will be some sort of vehicle for public participation in which Canadians can co-invest, with a guaranteed principle.

The announcement is here:


The backgrounder is here:
Too long to read.
Is this a rebranded "Infrastructure Bank", or is it a whole new scam that will run in parallel.?
 
In line w/all the recent Sovereign Wealth Fund chatter here, the Carney Government has just announced one this morning.

It will directly seed 25B in capital over 3 years, with a mandate to deliver market returns on investments.

In additional there will be some sort of vehicle for public participation in which Canadians can co-invest, with a guaranteed principle.

The announcement is here:


The backgrounder is here:


From the above, in order:

View attachment 732273

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View attachment 732274
View attachment 732275
View attachment 732276
Cautiously optimistic. I hope it is not overly mandated with trying to build national champions. The retail investment angle is a bit odd...
 
Well said. That doesn't mean that Ottawa does not have a role to play in Alberta's oil industry, but that should be as booster and problem solver to any barriers. Imagine if instead of a NEP that capped prices and transferred wealth out of Alberta, PET built a NEP in partnership with Alberta with the primary goal of boosting the province's wealth, in the understanding that what's good for Alberta is good for the country. Such a plan might have seen federally-mandated oil pipelines built to the Pacific and more importantly from Alberta to the refineries in Atlantic Canada. This would boost jobs and infrastructure investment across the country - leading Canada in the 1980s with a solid national energy plan, and much less Western alientation. Another objective could be diversifying oil shipments to new markets.
Took the words out of my mouth.
 

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