There's an increasingly good chance that Trump finally met his match. He has no way out of this. If he persists, Americans are going to die in an unpopular war while Iran hunkers down on the Strait and gas prices continue to escalate exponentially. Trump's position back home becomes untenable. If he gets out without re-opening the Strait, Iran holds the trigger on the gun over the world economy, pulling it to hurt Trump towards the Midterms out of revenge or strategy, or both. He loses either way.
If this war is still going in November and gas is at $5 or $6 a gallon and electricity is expensive through the Summer, the Senate is in play. Without his influence to keep Republicans in power, Trump loses leverage over House and Senate Republicans. I could see things turning really quickly. The only way out of this war is for Republicans to take the old man out back by the shed. Vance is widely known to be against this war and has remained uncharacteristically quiet throughout it. If anti-war Republicans were to join the Democrats to impeach and convict Trump, as President, Vance would have the standing and mandate to maneuver the US out of this quagmire. He doesn't care what happens to Iran, he just wants out of it even if Israel and the Middle East are left to deal with Trump's mess.
The fortified IRGC agrees to re-open the Strait of Hormuz, because they're now in charge without the need for a civilian leadership veil, they get to get rid of Trump and they can dominate the Middle East and hold the West hostage once they've rebuilt, accelerating towards a nuclear weapon unimpeded. They'll take the deal with Vance.
I'm not particularly looking forward to Vance as POTUS but he's not insane or dangerously unpredictable and he doesn't command the MAGA movement nor does he have the charisma to take it over. By 2028, Vance would be toxic — Trump would destroy him from the outside if he supported his impeachment or even just stood by and took Trump's place.