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Russian-Ukrainian War (2022- )

Sane people would see Obama getting the Peace Prize for doing nothing and conclude the prize is a joke. Trump became hell bent on getting his own because of his irrational hatred for uppity Obama who thought he was better than Trump. I feel like Trump's villain origin story was the Trump roast Obama made at the WH Correspondents Dinner.

Haha, been so long since I saw this. I forgot how pissed he looked.
That being said, for all the people laughing at him, he surely has had a pretty definitive last laugh (for now, I hope).
 
1772852700256.png

Ha! Foreshadowing!
 
I've noticed that Russian athletes have been competing under the Russian flag at the Paralympics.

And there is talk of FIFA allowing Russia to compete again, at least in Youth competitions at first.
 
I wanted to bring a spotlight on a developing story that has a potential impact on Hungarian elections in April, in turn the EU security for the next few years, and in turn has huge implications for Ukraine.

These are the main events over the past few weeks to my recollection:
1. On January 28th, the Russian oil stopped flowing through the Druzhba pipeline to Slovakia and Hungary. The pipeline traverses across western Ukraine.
2. Ukraine claims it's due to Russian strikes on the oil infrastructure near Lviv.
3. There are satellite images of an oil reservoir destroyed near Lviv on that day. It's not clear how/if this could have caused a disruption to oil transit.
4. Orban and Fico are freaking out - a clear case of the Russian oil withdrawal syndrome.
5. Hungary and Slovakia are demanding Ukraine drops everything and fixes the pipeline. Ukraine is saying they are a bit busy fighting the Russians at the moment.
6. Hungary, Slovakia, and EU are demanding their inspectors be allowed to assess the damage to the pipeline. Ukraine is stonewalling.
7. Hungary and Slovakia are trying to convince Croatia to start sending the Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline the other way. Meaning that Croatia should start accepting the Russian tankers in its ports and pump the oil back to Hungary. Croatia is saying "no, thank you".
7. Last week Orban's goons performed a blatant bank robbery. They stormed a Ukrainian armored bank truck that was transporting $40M EUR in cash and gold from Europe to Ukraine, transiting through Hungary.
8. Orban is holding the seized assets as ransom until Ukraine fixes the pipeline. EU is not condemning this, saying that it' Hungary's internal matter.
9. Zelensky got pissed and joked that if Orban keeps this up, Zelensky will share Orban's home address with Ukrainian Armed Forces so that they could have a talk.
10. The joke didn't go over well. Orban's goons are up in arms. Even the Hungarian opposition candidate Magyar sided with Orban on this one. EU leaders condemned the joke.
11. Orban is on a war footing. The speeches he gives make it sound like his country is at war, fighting for it's existence on all fronts, while he is the one-and-only true savior of the Hungarian people. Clearly milking the "rally around the flag" sentiment.

Here are a couple of articles on the topic:

My worry is that Ukraine may overplay its hand. What if this actually plays in Orban's favor and helps him win the election? Before these events, the opposition was comfortably cruising to a win, enjoying a double digit lead in the polls.
 
I wanted to bring a spotlight on a developing story that has a potential impact on Hungarian elections in April, in turn the EU security for the next few years, and in turn has huge implications for Ukraine.

These are the main events over the past few weeks to my recollection:
1. On January 28th, the Russian oil stopped flowing through the Druzhba pipeline to Slovakia and Hungary. The pipeline traverses across western Ukraine.
2. Ukraine claims it's due to Russian strikes on the oil infrastructure near Lviv.
3. There are satellite images of an oil reservoir destroyed near Lviv on that day. It's not clear how/if this could have caused a disruption to oil transit.
4. Orban and Fico are freaking out - a clear case of the Russian oil withdrawal syndrome.
5. Hungary and Slovakia are demanding Ukraine drops everything and fixes the pipeline. Ukraine is saying they are a bit busy fighting the Russians at the moment.
6. Hungary, Slovakia, and EU are demanding their inspectors be allowed to assess the damage to the pipeline. Ukraine is stonewalling.
7. Hungary and Slovakia are trying to convince Croatia to start sending the Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline the other way. Meaning that Croatia should start accepting the Russian tankers in its ports and pump the oil back to Hungary. Croatia is saying "no, thank you".
7. Last week Orban's goons performed a blatant bank robbery. They stormed a Ukrainian armored bank truck that was transporting $40M EUR in cash and gold from Europe to Ukraine, transiting through Hungary.
8. Orban is holding the seized assets as ransom until Ukraine fixes the pipeline. EU is not condemning this, saying that it' Hungary's internal matter.
9. Zelensky got pissed and joked that if Orban keeps this up, Zelensky will share Orban's home address with Ukrainian Armed Forces so that they could have a talk.
10. The joke didn't go over well. Orban's goons are up in arms. Even the Hungarian opposition candidate Magyar sided with Orban on this one. EU leaders condemned the joke.
11. Orban is on a war footing. The speeches he gives make it sound like his country is at war, fighting for it's existence on all fronts, while he is the one-and-only true savior of the Hungarian people. Clearly milking the "rally around the flag" sentiment.

Here are a couple of articles on the topic:

My worry is that Ukraine may overplay its hand. What if this actually plays in Orban's favor and helps him win the election? Before these events, the opposition was comfortably cruising to a win, enjoying a double digit lead in the polls.

Honestly, I don't see Fidesz winning this year and if they do it will be with a minority.

There is a growing fatigue with Fidesz after all these years and the Tisza Party seems to have caught everyones attention. I am voting for them.
 
My worry is that Ukraine may overplay its hand. What if this actually plays in Orban's favor and helps him win the election? Before these events, the opposition was comfortably cruising to a win, enjoying a double digit lead in the polls.

Who knows.

But this one to a wider problem than Ukraine. Putin's henchmen are a massive liability for the EU and NATO at large.
 
But this one to a wider problem than Ukraine. Putin's henchmen are a massive liability for the EU and NATO at large.
Well, cutting Hungary and Slovakia off of the cheap Russian oil will go a long way towards not having Putin's henchmen in EU. Look at the wonders it's done for the German foreign policy after Ukraine blew up the Nord Stream pipelines.
Once Slovakia and Hungary readjust their energy supply lines, the Russian grip on EU politics will be greatly diminished. So in the long run, what Ukraine has done with Druzhba makes complete sense. I'm just afraid they've done it two months too soon. Do it the day after the Hungarian elections, don't do it now, don't give Orban any "election interference" ammunition for his campaign.
 
I wanted to bring a spotlight on a developing story that has a potential impact on Hungarian elections in April, in turn the EU security for the next few years, and in turn has huge implications for Ukraine.

These are the main events over the past few weeks to my recollection:
1. On January 28th, the Russian oil stopped flowing through the Druzhba pipeline to Slovakia and Hungary. The pipeline traverses across western Ukraine.
2. Ukraine claims it's due to Russian strikes on the oil infrastructure near Lviv.
3. There are satellite images of an oil reservoir destroyed near Lviv on that day. It's not clear how/if this could have caused a disruption to oil transit.
4. Orban and Fico are freaking out - a clear case of the Russian oil withdrawal syndrome.
5. Hungary and Slovakia are demanding Ukraine drops everything and fixes the pipeline. Ukraine is saying they are a bit busy fighting the Russians at the moment.
6. Hungary, Slovakia, and EU are demanding their inspectors be allowed to assess the damage to the pipeline. Ukraine is stonewalling.
7. Hungary and Slovakia are trying to convince Croatia to start sending the Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline the other way. Meaning that Croatia should start accepting the Russian tankers in its ports and pump the oil back to Hungary. Croatia is saying "no, thank you".
7. Last week Orban's goons performed a blatant bank robbery. They stormed a Ukrainian armored bank truck that was transporting $40M EUR in cash and gold from Europe to Ukraine, transiting through Hungary.
8. Orban is holding the seized assets as ransom until Ukraine fixes the pipeline. EU is not condemning this, saying that it' Hungary's internal matter.
9. Zelensky got pissed and joked that if Orban keeps this up, Zelensky will share Orban's home address with Ukrainian Armed Forces so that they could have a talk.
10. The joke didn't go over well. Orban's goons are up in arms. Even the Hungarian opposition candidate Magyar sided with Orban on this one. EU leaders condemned the joke.
11. Orban is on a war footing. The speeches he gives make it sound like his country is at war, fighting for it's existence on all fronts, while he is the one-and-only true savior of the Hungarian people. Clearly milking the "rally around the flag" sentiment.

Here are a couple of articles on the topic:

My worry is that Ukraine may overplay its hand. What if this actually plays in Orban's favor and helps him win the election? Before these events, the opposition was comfortably cruising to a win, enjoying a double digit lead in the polls.
Will Orban and Fico invoke article 5.?
 
And while we're on the topic of Ukrainian air defenses, would you look at that, there is finally an appreciation that the U.S. and allies were underprepared for the drone threat

This story just keeps getting more and more ridiculous. Axios now reports that half a year ago the Ukrainians pitched their help to set up an integrated counter-drone system for the Middle East theatre. Trump admin snubbed them.

Original article:
Paywall-free

Key points:
Nearly seven months ago, Ukrainian officials tried to sell the U.S. their battle-proven technology for downing Iranian-made attack drones.
The Trump administration dismissed the Ukrainians, only to reverse course last week
Iran's inexpensive Shahed drones have been linked to the deaths of seven U.S. service members, and have cost the U.S. and its friends in the region millions of dollars to intercept.
The Ukrainians made a PowerPoint presentation to U.S. officials that displayed a map of the Middle East and had this prophetic warning: "Iran is improving its Shahed one-way-attack drone design."
The presentation included the idea of creating "drone combat hubs" in Turkey, Jordan and the Persian Gulf states, where U.S. bases are located, to address the threat from Iran and its proxies.
to build the 'drone walls' and all the things necessary like the radar, et cetera
the Ukrainian leader is seen by some in the Trump administration as too much of a self-promoter of a client state that doesn't command enough respect.
On Thursday, the U.S. formally asked Zelensky for anti-drone help

Hubris and arrogance - the reason for seven US soldiers losing their lives and equipment losses totaling hundreds of millions of dollars in the Iranian conflict so far. If only they gave Ukraine the respect it deserves and recognized that there are lessons to be learned from Ukraine's experience, things could have turned out a lot different for the current war with Iran.
 
This story just keeps getting more and more ridiculous. Axios now reports that half a year ago the Ukrainians pitched their help to set up an integrated counter-drone system for the Middle East theatre. Trump admin snubbed them.

Original article:
Paywall-free

Key points:



Hubris and arrogance - the reason for seven US soldiers losing their lives and equipment losses totaling hundreds of millions of dollars in the Iranian conflict so far. If only they gave Ukraine the respect it deserves and recognized that there are lessons to be learned from Ukraine's experience, things could have turned out a lot different for the current war with Iran.

It's no exaggeration to say that Trump will be viewed as the most incompetent person to ever have held that office. Really validates the custom that Presidents spend careers as Senators, Vice Presidents, Governors or other high office before passing the almost impossible test of nomination by a major party. Tells you everything about what the Republican Party has become.
 
It's no exaggeration to say that Trump will be viewed as the most incompetent person to ever have held that office. Really validates the custom that Presidents spend careers as Senators, Vice Presidents, Governors or other high office before passing the almost impossible test of nomination by a major party. Tells you everything about what the Republican Party has become.

True, but I think the larger issue at hand transcends the Trump administration and the Republican party. To this day, even after the events of the opening days of the Gulf War 3, I see some military analysts arguing that the threat of drones is overrated, that everything is fine, nothing to worry about, that no lessons need to be learned. A lot of times militaries have inertial resistance; they lack the necessary level of forward thinking. The proverbial problem of the militaries always preparing for the last war they already fought, not adapting to the battlefield conditions of a future conflict.
 
Ukraine's approach is a lot more manpower intensive. And very difficult by the sea where said human can't picket further out.
need somebody staying up at night alert to take out the drone.

What do you know, it's almost like Ukrainians realize these limitations and have been actively working on an automated solution to a drone counter problem:


Their new JEDI interceptor drone is said to possess a datalink directly to ground based radar systems, which directs it to a general area. It then has on-board autonomous target acquisition and automated interception smarts. This is probably one of the projects Ukraine's new MoD was touting: the integrated AI-powered interceptor drone.

Brownie points for calling it a Jedi and styling it as an X-wing.

1774323219815.jpeg
 
it's a progressive process to get them ready to throw their lives away:
- recruiting social undesirables (drug addicts, alcoholics, prisoners and criminals, homeless) who have nothing to live for
- intimidation
- physical abuse
- torture
- "the pit": a twisted and sadistic form of punishment widespread on the Russian side since the first days of war
- forced fights to the death between recruits who f-ed up
- "zeroing" - murder/execution of anyone who refuses an order to go on the offensive when commanded

Here is a uniquely Russian method of physical abuse and torture to get their recruits good and ready to sacrifice themselves to the Ukrainian drone gods: tree decorating.
trigger warning: scenes of torture, physical abuse, and unflattering male nudity


This is new low even by Russian standards. I've seen videos of one-two recruits being made into an example for others. I've seen them punish individual soldiers by tying them to a tree at the edge of a forward-facing tree line for the Ukrainian drone target practice.

I've never seen an entire tree alley decorated with Russian recruits like that before.
 
They’re not only disposable cannon fodder, the Kremlin probably calculates that they’re more of a risk to Russia than they are to Ukraine. If the war were to suddenly end, all these angry war-hardened men would be returning to Russian cities with smuggled weapons, without any prospects, without any work, with serious PTSD. The Kremlin would rather them dead than turning on the country. They’ll likely be massacred at their discharge. And they know this, I’m sure they’re told this. It’s a one way ticket and many of them would rather fight to live another day. Glory to Ukraine for putting them out of their misery.
 

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