2026 Toronto Mayoral Race

[ShonTron]

There’s an interesting article in the Star today that spills some tea on how Brad Bradford is seen among the Family Compact elite who backed Lastman and Tory. They really don’t like the guy.

How John Tory’s exit, some bad blood — and a Ford — are threatening to shake up Toronto’s mayoral race

As Brad Bradford moves closer to solidifying himself as the consensus centre-right mayoral challenger to progressive incumbent Olivia Chow, he still has hurdles to clear.

www.thestar.com

The only one to speak on the record is Nick Koulvalis:

Nick Kouvalis, a pollster and key strategist for Tory and Bailão, said Bradford’s public and private criticism of Tory has dissuaded him from supporting Bradford this time.

“His personal attacks against John Tory and unrelenting disloyal behaviour has left a very bad taste in my mouth ... There are other people who feel the same way,” said Kouvalis.

“There is zero chance that I will work for Brad. I would sooner help Olivia defeat Brad,” Kouvalis said.

Though the article goes on to say some of the wealthy backers would like to see Rod Philips run (Doug Ford’s former finance minister who was forced to resign after vacationing at St. Barts during COVID lockdowns) but he has since said he’s not going to run for mayor.

 

[nightstreak]

how Brad Bradford is seen among the Family Compact elite who backed Lastman and Tory. They really don’t like the guy.

A visit to a session of City Council makes it obvious. Sitting in the gallery, you see councillors sit next to others for a chat, including apparent "rivals". Brad Brad walks around aimlessly and goes back to his seat. In a recent session, people dug into their rivals with light jokes. Brad Brad doesn't get it, made an inappropriate comment about the Speaker, everyone gasped and asked him to apologize — he didn't. Nobody likes the guy. He doesn't fit in. I think everyone across the spectrum, will be glad to see him out of there if he follows through on running for Mayor instead of his council seat.

 

[adma]

All the same, here's things looking like a statistical tie, already.

With John Tory Out, Bradford is statistically tied with Chow in Toronto Mayoral Election

My polling shows Mayor Olivia Chow locked in a tight contest with Brad Bradford, whose higher net favourables and room to grow suggest this is a true two-person race.

davidcoletto.substack.com

And it makes sense--particularly when it comes to amalgamated municipal entities, there's always going to be that demo that's *really* antsy about the "socialist hordes", mayorally speaking, and seek to gravitate to the clearest available alternative. (It's why the left's been thwarted over and over again in Winnipeg and Ottawa--and why Andrea Horwath only barely scraped by in Hamilton.)

 

[nightstreak]

All the same, here's things looking like a statistical tie, already.

With John Tory Out, Bradford is statistically tied with Chow in Toronto Mayoral Election

My polling shows Mayor Olivia Chow locked in a tight contest with Brad Bradford, whose higher net favourables and room to grow suggest this is a true two-person race.

davidcoletto.substack.com

And it makes sense--particularly when it comes to amalgamated municipal entities, there's always going to be that demo that's *really* antsy about the "socialist hordes", mayorally speaking, and seek to gravitate to the clearest available alternative. (It's why the left's been thwarted over and over again in Winnipeg and Ottawa--and why Andrea Horwath only barely scraped by in Hamilton.)

It's the Olivia Chow vs the Not Olivia Chow polling effect. Note, about a third of those aren't decided yet. Things will change once there's an actual election and the undecideds see who the choices are. They'll either be impressed by Bradford — probably not given his 1.28% share the last time he ran citywide — or they'll tune out. Many of them won't even vote. Apathy wins elections for the incumbent and this is an apathy cycle. City Hall is boring, the world is a mess and City Hall rarely registers in the list of their worries and blames for the state of the world.

The 2023 by-election was a flaming hot election cycle with tons of media attention and only attracted 38% turnout. Tory vs Ford (first Rob, then Doug) attracted 55%. That's the kind of turnout you need to change the status quo. John Tory's boring 2022 re-election got 29% turnout. That's where I expect this one to land. Chow's built-in turnout advantage as the incumbent means Bradford will need to drive high turnout with whatever resources he can scrounge up, aaaand he will have to win most of the Not-Olivia vote if anyone else notable is running, like Michael Stirpe Ford who would provide enough distraction to relegate Bradford to the 1% pile. I anticipate voter turnout to be fairly low and Chow winning it by a mile, in the 60% range.

 

[adma]

It's the Olivia Chow vs the Not Olivia Chow polling effect. Note, about a third of those aren't decided yet. Things will change once there's an actual election and the undecideds see who the choices are. They'll either be impressed by Bradford — probably not given his 1.28% share the last time he ran citywide — or they'll tune out. Many of them won't even vote. Apathy wins elections for the incumbent and this is an apathy cycle. City Hall is boring, the world is a mess and City Hall rarely registers in the list of their worries and blames for the state of the world.

The 2023 by-election was a flaming hot election cycle with tons of media attention and only attracted 38% turnout. Tory vs Ford (first Rob, then Doug) attracted 55%. That's the kind of turnout you need to change the status quo. John Tory's boring 2022 re-election got 29% turnout. That's where I expect this one to land. Chow's built-in turnout advantage as the incumbent means Bradford will need to drive high turnout with whatever resources he can scrounge up, aaaand he will have to win most of the Not-Olivia vote if anyone else notable is running, like Michael Stirpe Ford who would provide enough distraction to relegate Bradford to the 1% pile. I anticipate voter turnout to be fairly low and Chow winning it by a mile, in the 60% range.

I can still see it being narrower, even if tokenly so--narrower than Miller vs Pitfield in '06--and a big part of it is that for whatever reason (racism, sexism, etc), Chow has always been branded as more "alienating" than Miller. Even when she was leading in the polls going into past mayoral elections (2014 and 2023), it was less through high polling than through opposition splitting. Though yes, it may be different now that she actually *is* Mayor (much like John Tory's '14 victory rid him of the "perennial loser" stigma)--and I agree that if Bradford does make it narrower, it'll be a little by "Not Olivia Chow" default. But of course, it'll only be if he gets Council players in his camp who see a future in serving a Team Bradford mayoralty, whatever his prior mayoral byelection result was...

 

[nightstreak]

But of course, it'll only be if he gets Council players in his camp who see a future in serving a Team Bradford mayoralty, whatever his prior mayoral byelection result was...

That's the thing. Nobody on City Council likes Brad Bradford. Not even those on the right.

Olivia Chow has made some very odd friendships. Do you hear anyone bad mouthing the Mayor besides Bradford? The usual suspects are pretty quiet because she's very easy to work with and surprisingly compromising. City Council aside, who would've thought that Doug Ford would be buddy buddying with Olivia Chow?

 

[toonderly]

Wow. I believe he left provincial politics for health reasons, so I'm surprised he's entering public life again.

I had imagined that the health reasons were because Doug had advised him to lose weight and come back looking slender for a higher office.

 

[thettctransitfanatic]

As I posted in the other thread... new poll is out this morning:

Mayor Olivia Chow has vaulted into a 18 point lead over Councillor Brad Bradford, with Michael Ford in a distant third at just 16%. She has a 58% approval rating, and 50% of Torontonians say the city is moving in the right direction, which is up 1 point. She leads everywhere, even Etobicoke.

"First, the undecided number has jumped 7 points, from 10% to 17%. In that environment, the mayor has gone from 40% to 44%. Most of that 4-point increase appears to be a function of there being fewer decided voters in the pool.

For context, in last month’s fielding among all voters, including undecided, the mayor was at 36%, which is the same number she is at now."

Councillor Brad Bradford is also up this week. Among all voters, he has moved from 16% to 21%, a 5-point increase. Among decided and leaning voters, he is up 8 points, from 18% to 26%.

Regardless, the mayor still holds a double-digit lead in a race where the opposition remains split. Whether that lead is 18 points, 14 points, or 10 points, the result is the same: she is ahead by a lot.

While Tory has exited the race, Michael Ford has signalled he may throw his hat in the ring. The former cabinet minister, former city councillor, and the Premier’s nephew would start from a position of strength in Etobicoke, the heart of Ford Nation. If he runs, 31% of Etobicoke voters say they would support him for mayor.

There is a long way to go until October's vote but for now the mayor is doing well. If an elected were held today she would be easily re-elected."

Toronto: Chow 44%, Bradford 26%, Ford 16%

March 10, 2026 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies survey reveals a major shift in the city’s political landscape following John Tory’s announcement that he will not seek a return to the mayoralty. In a field without the former mayor, incumbent Olivia Chow has established a commanding 18-point

press.liaisonstrategies.ca

 

[txlseries4]

The Mayor has an item in front of executive committee today about paying residents to snow shovel in the event of major snow storms, like was done in NYC a few weeks ago. I can’t get the article now but I read she was told earlier about legal challenges and told staff to find a way around the issue. Guess we’ll see what happens later today.

https://secure.toronto.ca/council/agenda-item.do?item=2026.EX29.13

Bradford had immediately jumped on the idea and I was a little surprised to not hear Chow saying the same (she did a week after). Already I’ve noticed some politicians, and seemingly Chow, shift toward more videos and trying to emulate Mamdani’s messaging style in their social media. Whether they’re as charming is another thing lol

I think it’s a smart play by Chow to adopt good ideas that Bradford has to take wind out of his sails. Will it cause her to call for speeding up platform screen doors as well since that’s a big and popular thing he’s talking about? I hope so

 

[nightstreak]

Looks like Brad Bradford has at least one friend after all. And he milked the hell out of it. Gotta give him props for the effort, this kind of stuff works, it will bump him up a percentage point or two.

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It doesn't change the calculus though. Torontonians are comfortable with the boring state of City Hall. Unless Bradford can motivate turnout, he's not going to win. Olivia just needs to remain boring and she has this in the bag.