News from the Middle East

[Full Metal Junkie]

A US submarine sank an Iranian frigate somewhere near Sri Lanka:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2029197756321956264

Here's my problems with that:
1. This vessel is part of regular Iranian navy (Artesh), it's not an IRGC vessel.
2. It was nowhere near the theater of war.

If the US planners were looking to ferment an internal revolt against the theocratic Ayatollah regime in Iran, they would have been wise to focus their strikes on IRGC and Basij targets alone. They should have left the regular army folks from Artesh alone. However, at this point it's looking more like an all-out war against the people of Iran in general.

And stuff like this is a sure way to rally all Iranians around the flag, whoever is in charge of the country.

 

[kEiThZ]

Here's my problems with that:
1. This vessel is part of regular Iranian navy (Artesh), it's not an IRGC vessel.
2. It was nowhere near the theater of war.

Hate to say it. Legitimate target. That ship was on exercise in India. They could have pulled into port and sat out the war. For whatever reason that Captain chose to put out to sea, knowing full well that the Americans are out to sink the IRIN.

Also, I doubt anybody would say it wasn't legitimate if say that ship sank an American vessel.

This is war. And it sucks.

If the US planners were looking to ferment an internal revolt against the theocratic Ayatollah regime in Iran, they would have been wise to focus their strikes on IRGC and Basij targets alone. They should have left the regular army folks from Artesh alone.

They can't take the risk. Not when Iran is openly saying they want to close the Straits of Hormuz. And even attacking ports in Oman, on the Arabian Sea. That ship is capable of holding ship at risk, and/or attacking USN assets. The Americans would never accept it sallying out.

If the Artesth is to be left alone, they basically have to demonstrate they aren't actively assisting the regime. Ie. Stay home. Leave the ship in port. Leave the aircraft on the field. Etc.

However, at this point it's looking more like an all-out war against the people of Iran in general.

And stuff like this is a sure way to rally all Iranians around the flag, whoever is in charge of the country.

I am not sure one can draw that conclusion from this attack. But broadly there are several goals here. The Americans want to substantially disarm Iran. That can or cannot be considered hostile against the Iranian people based on how they feel about getting disarmed. Similarly, I suspect where one sits on the Clerics and IRGC being culled, depends on how sympathetic one is to that structure.

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

Hate to say it. Legitimate target.

Not saying that it was illegitimate.

They can't take the risk. Not when Iran is openly saying they want to close the Straits of Hormuz.

It was near Sri Lanka. If it was clearly headed for the straight of Hormuz, then take it out.

If the Artesth is to be left alone, they basically have to demonstrate they aren't actively assisting the regime.

It's a chicken-and-egg problem. They can't sit it out if they are also being attacked from day 1, so now they are forced to assist the regime whether they wanted it or not.

Anyway, it's a sh!tshow out there.

 

[kEiThZ]

It's a chicken-and-egg problem. They can't sit it out if they are also being attacked from day 1, so now they are forced to assist the regime whether they wanted it or not.

The Artesh is not being attacked across the board. Mostly their warehouses, ammo dumps, etc. The navy, air force and missile units are not targets that are going to be passed up though. Not in the least because forces can actually pivot and help the IRGC anytime.

If you're an average infantry unit in the middle of Iran, nobody is going to waste ammo on you.

The US and Israel are going to have pared down missile launchers, major regime figures and infrastructure in a week. We're going to see if the people come out. If not, this will be a failure. The Americans will have to cut a deal. But if I was in the IRGC, I wouldn't negotiate until I have used all my missiles and done maximum damage possible.

 

[Towered]

The Artesh is not being attacked across the board. Mostly their warehouses, ammo dumps, etc. The navy, air force and missile units are not targets that are going to be passed up though. Not in the least because forces can actually pivot and help the IRGC anytime.

If you're an average infantry unit in the middle of Iran, nobody is going to waste ammo on you.

The US and Israel are going to have pared down missile launchers, major regime figures and infrastructure in a week. We're going to see if the people come out. If not, this will be a failure. The Americans will have to cut a deal. But if I was in the IRGC, I wouldn't negotiate until I have used all my missiles and done maximum damage possible.

I read something about the US pouring arms into western Iran to arm the Kurds, who apparently have agreed in return to move on the regime.

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

I read something about the US pouring arms into western Iran to arm the Kurds, who apparently have agreed in return to move on the regime.

Yeah, CNN is claiming the CIA are arming the Kurds:

https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/03/politics/cia-arming-kurds-iran

I feel bad for Kurds. They've been the most reliable ally in the Middle East that has been used up, screwed over and abandoned at every turn. The fact they are still willing to talk to Americans after all they've suffered because of them - that's a miracle.

 

[Towered]

Yeah, CNN is claiming the CIA are arming the Kurds:

https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/03/politics/cia-arming-kurds-iran

I feel bad for Kurds. They've been the most reliable ally in the Middle East that has been used up, screwed over and abandoned at every turn. The fact they are still willing to talk to Americans after all they've suffered because of them - that's a miracle.

It is a bit of a miracle, but I'm sure they sense a historic opportunity here to maybe, possibly, be able to finally carve out an independent homeland. They truly deserve it. That's probably why they're pragmatic about playing ball with a treacherous foreign power...

 

[lenaitch]

This is war. And it sucks.

But it's not a war. Just ask them.

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

But it's not a war. Just ask them.

Yeah, they're not helping themselves with the narratives. They are literally using the playbook Putin used to sell the war in Ukraine to his people. The parallels are uncanny.

The are refusing to call it a war. It's a "major combat operation (MCO) in Iran".
Russians literally jailed people for calling it a war. They called theirs a "special military operation (SMO) on the territory of Ukraine".

They are both calling for "demilitarization" of Iran/Ukraine.

US is calling for the removal of a terrorist regime, yet Hegseth is saying it's not a regime change.
Russia is calling for "denazification" of Ukraine because according to them the Ukrainian government consists exclusively of nazis, yet they refuse to officially admit they want a subservient puppet government in Kiev.

US is saying that Iran can never obtain nuclear weapons.
Putin actually claimed that Ukraine was about to obtain nuclear weapons as one of his excuses mere days before he started his war.

US is doing it to protect itself from any threat of Iranian ballistic missiles hitting America.
Russia started its invasion so that Ukraine never has the ability so send a ballistic missile Moscow's way.

Most laughably, Leavitt claimed today that Iran was about to attack them, so they attacked first.
All of Putin's lackeys to this day maintain that Ukraine was about to attack Russia in 2022, so they just had to attack first in order to defend their sovereignty.
Lukashenko even promised to show everyone on a map where Ukraine was preparing to invade Belarus:

And now I will show you where the attack on Belarus was prepared from - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

A pretty damming and conclusive report from GeoConfirmed based on fresh satellite imagery regarding the girl's school strike in Iran. The damage signature is consistent with the rest of the strikes on the IRGC compound next door, meaning that it was mistakenly included as an intended target of the bombing by US/Israel:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2029325062336106724

 

[Richard White]

I read something about the US pouring arms into western Iran to arm the Kurds, who apparently have agreed in return to move on the regime.

Three words.

Bay of Pigs.

 

[kEiThZ]

I read something about the US pouring arms into western Iran to arm the Kurds, who apparently have agreed in return to move on the regime.

I honestly don't buy that the Kurds are going to do this. How many times have the Americans betrayed them? And the IRGC is far stronger. And they have Turkey watching next door.

At this point, the Americans seem to be trying to manifest a Kurdish uprising. And that might only get the Kurds attacked.

 

[kEiThZ]

Three words.

Bay of Pigs.

That would be if the diaspora mounted up and returned to fight. For all the partying all over the globe, I don't actually see a lot of them willing to do that.

 

[lenaitch]

Yeah, they're not helping themselves with the narratives. They are literally using the playbook Putin used to sell the war in Ukraine to his people. The parallels are uncanny.

The are refusing to call it a war. It's a "major combat operation (MCO) in Iran".
Russians literally jailed people for calling it a war. They called theirs a "special military operation (SMO) on the territory of Ukraine".

They are both calling for "demilitarization" of Iran/Ukraine.

US is calling for the removal of a terrorist regime, yet Hegseth is saying it's not a regime change.
Russia is calling for "denazification" of Ukraine because according to them the Ukrainian government consists exclusively of nazis, yet they refuse to officially admit they want a subservient puppet government in Kiev.

US is saying that Iran can never obtain nuclear weapons.
Putin actually claimed that Ukraine was about to obtain nuclear weapons as one of his excuses mere days before he started his war.

US is doing it to protect itself from any threat of Iranian ballistic missiles hitting America.
Russia started its invasion so that Ukraine never has the ability so send a ballistic missile Moscow's way.

Most laughably, Leavitt claimed today that Iran was about to attack them, so they attacked first.
All of Putin's lackeys to this day maintain that Ukraine was about to attack Russia in 2022, so they just had to attack first in order to defend their sovereignty.
Lukashenko even promised to show everyone on a map where Ukraine was preparing to invade Belarus:

And now I will show you where the attack on Belarus was prepared from - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The word "war" is coming out in press conferences, etc., probably because maintaining the necessary level of speech discipline is difficult when not working off prepared text (and I suspect Hegseth does see is as a war of righteousness and the rest of them aren't all that bright), but official statements are not using the word since they know the President can't unilaterally declare war. Putin has no such constraints.

 

[Richard White]

official statements are not using the word since they know the President can't unilaterally declare war. Putin has no such constraints.

This may also have to do with the upcoming midterms.

They know long drawn out wars in Iran will not go over well and the fact the GOP has been drinking the Kool-Aid doesn't help. They are trying to spin this as a short term minor concern so it will not anger alot of their base.

It's more likely that if this drags on for an extended period and more nations get involved that they will not be able to control the messaging. If that happens, the GOP is toast.