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President Donald Trump's United States of America

Most Republicans, especially the Senators, fear their primary more than the General Election. That's the reason Trump will not face any consequences. The only way they will fear actual consequences is if Europe imposes damaging economic consequences. Something Europe has not shown a willingness to do till now. Canada imposed more tariffs than Europe the last time. They're caught between Trump and the world and they have regularly seen the world back down.
 
Admiral Beez said:
So, is the US on the way out?

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Interesting thesis. Substantially overstated.

To start with, the military over-reach of the US is always vastly overstated. All those "they have 750 bases overseas" nonsense are in reality mostly something like a Marine platoon protecting an embassy or exchange personnel. By those definitions, Canada has 100+ overseas bases too. Next, the US spends 3.5% of GDP on defence. People here trillion dollar defence budget and think the Americans are crazily overspending. They forget that comes from a $30T economy and that the majority of that money is spent in the US with more than half of that just going to pay and benefits of personnel. This is nowhere the same as the Spanish Crown during the height of Spain's colonial period or the UK during the World Wars and its colonial period. What the US does have, however, is an absolute unwillingness to balance the books. And that could cause a fiscal and even monetary crisis eventually. That I would agree to.
 
kEiThZ said:
Most Republicans, especially the Senators, fear their primary more than the General Election. That's the reason Trump will not face any consequences. The only way they will fear actual consequences is if Europe imposes damaging economic consequences. Something Europe has not shown a willingness to do till now. Canada imposed more tariffs than Europe the last time. They're caught between Trump and the world and they have regularly seen the world back down.
Click to expand...
But as Trump gets more and more deranged, his endorsement is being seen as a kiss of death. A Trump endorsed primary challenge might not be such an advantage; especially amongst swing voters once the election actually rolls around. They'll likely appease until the primaries, then turn before the election. More than half of the primaries in battleground states happen before June. Texas, with 12 of the battleground seats, is just over a month away at the beginning of March.
 
zang said:
But as Trump gets more and more deranged, his endorsement is being seen as a kiss of death. A Trump endorsed primary challenge might not be such an advantage; especially amongst swing voters once the election actually rolls around. They'll likely appease until the primaries, then turn before the election. More than half of the primaries in battleground states happen before June. Texas, with 12 of the battleground seats, is just over a month away at the beginning of March.
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They may pivot for the election. And the day after, they'll go right back to taking orders from Trump. That's the problem.
 
kEiThZ said:
They may pivot for the election. And the day after, they'll go right back to taking orders from Trump. That's the problem.
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Provided they win any primary challenge, they'll now be seen as flip floppers by both those who voted for them and those who went with Trump. Trump's mere presence corrupts everything.
 
kEiThZ said:
Most Republicans, especially the Senators, fear their primary more than the General Election. That's the reason Trump will not face any consequences. The only way they will fear actual consequences is if Europe imposes damaging economic consequences. Something Europe has not shown a willingness to do till now. Canada imposed more tariffs than Europe the last time. They're caught between Trump and the world and they have regularly seen the world back down.
Click to expand...

I think that time is coming.

As Trump continues to spew his rhetoric, the rest of the world is starting to divorce the US. It is not an immediate process but they are starting to do so.

Like I said before if the rest of the world tells Trump and the US to go **** themselves, it will knock the US down a peg. It will force them to realize that they are doing themselves more harm than good.

As others said, self interest is key. If Senators and Representatives think they are heading up Schitts Creek they will start to distance themselves from Trump. If they have their asses handed to them in the midterms, it will force them to rethink Trump.

Honestly, if Europe treated the US like Russia, Iran or North Korea this would be over in an instant. Can you imagine Trumps reaction if Europe placed Sanctions on the US and instituted firm visa requirements. The GOP would turn on him in a second if they thought his actions were causing the NYSE, S&P 500 or Nasdaq to tank.
 
zang said:
But as Trump gets more and more deranged, his endorsement is being seen as a kiss of death. A Trump endorsed primary challenge might not be such an advantage; especially amongst swing voters once the election actually rolls around. They'll likely appease until the primaries, then turn before the election. More than half of the primaries in battleground states happen before June. Texas, with 12 of the battleground seats, is just over a month away at the beginning of March.
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I think you are very optimistic about how many Republican congressman view him as a kiss of death.
 
zang said:
It's GenAI slop from a YouTuber who purely makes AI Slop, so take anything in that video with a grain of salt.
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Fair enough. But i have seen this comparison elsewhere. And the points in the video are half-true. But it almost always devolves down to "The US spends too much on the military and that's why they'll collapse." I just wanted to point how flawed and misunderstood that take is.
 
kEiThZ said:
Fair enough. But i have seen this comparison elsewhere. And the points in the video are half-true. But it almost always devolves down to "The US spends too much on the military and that's why they'll collapse." I just wanted to point how flawed and misunderstood that take is.
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Yes, exactly. As long as other countries want to hold USD, they can borrow money and pay for that military forever. Or even a bigger one.
 
Richard White said:
Like I said before if the rest of the world tells Trump and the US to go **** themselves, it will knock the US down a peg. It will force them to realize that they are doing themselves more harm than good.
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Will the rest of the world do that? So far, it's only really China that has done it.

The Europeans caved so hard the last time. And there's already dissenters (like your motherland) talking about letting Greenland go. So I am not at all confident that the rest of the world will push back enough to give Trump pause. If they actually showed backbone, I would agree with you.
 
Richard White said:
That number is growing.

People are starting to wake up and smell the **** he is shoveling.
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Other than Epstein, what would you say about all the last Congressional votes makes you think there is a substantial number of rebel Republicans?
Right now there are people like Tom Tillis talking about standing up to him, but we have been here before. They talk big on TV before the vote, but once they are on the floor, they vote for his policy agenda.
These people are true believers in him. It will take a major electoral defeat to shake that.
 
kEiThZ said:
Will the rest of the world do that? So far, it's only really China that has done it.

The Europeans caved so hard the last time. And there's already dissenters (like your motherland) talking about letting Greenland go. So I am not at all confident that the rest of the world will push back enough to give Trump pause. If they actually showed backbone, I would agree with you.
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I don't agree with Orban and I am actually voting for the Tisza Party in the upcoming election.
 
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