The one nitpick I would make (without disputing your end result) is the sequence and history .....in fact the Ontario plans were hatched before VIA HFR had gained attention, and came about for the very reason that at that moment Ottawa was clearly not interested in H(anything)R and Ontario realised that if it was going to solve its transportation problems it would have to go it alone.
And then, once Ontario played its willingness (at least superficially, Wynne never actually put skin in the game) to back HSR, Ottawa for a time concluded that they could back away and let Ontario knock themselves out. And after that, when interest sprouted for HxR, Ontario then backed away as they read potential for Ottawa to take up the task.
What has since changed as Alto has gone over the top into general public acceptance is the political realization in Ottawa that there are too many votes in Southern Ontario to exclude it from Alto....and the need is there.....but having put a line in the sand as a federal project, the only way to launch and build is to focus on T-O-M first and promise SW Ont later.
I continue to believe that if the issue were measured empirically, the need for HSR is most acute west of Toronto and growing, but not acute, to the east. So actually I would build Mtl-Ottawa and Toronto-KW-London in parallel, and let the others follow. Possibly Ontario should be contributing to the cost of that. But that's an academic perspective based on numbers and degree of current congestion alone, not politics.... the politics will override.
And to be fair to Metrolinx, none of this was their doing.... only recently did ML have a mandate to look beyond the GTA. At the time they were too busy failing at other projects to get involved here. So while I blame them for plenty, failing to plan or execute HSR isn't on them.
In the end, it is what it is, and the current plan will go forward while SW Ont waits.
- Paul