Silly estimation. The cost of owning a car is 2-3x what it was 20 years and that’s not about to change
I am as skeptical as anyone of the eventual cost of Alto (not saying that I have a better estimate, I simply accept that these numbers are at best shots in the dark)
but I think we have indeed turned a page.
The cost to the consumer of operating a vehicle is not the deciding factor. It is the increasing congestion of roads and the cost of doing anything about that. And, the increasing cost of adding new airport capacity for intercity corridors. I expect people will continue to own automobiles. But the utility of those vehicles for specific travel needs, in the presence of attractive competing options, is what is changing, and not raw cost,.
Timing is everything:
- One does not have to be a Liberal supporter to appreciate that federal politics have changed and the current Cabinet is taking a more deliberate, targeted approach to nation building - and the new relationship with the US is adding urgency - leading to an appetite for federal spending on clearly defined projects.
- The Opposition and its current leader have now had plenty of opportunity to aggressively oppose Alto - in their somewhat churlish style of late - and all we are hearing from them is.....crickets. They may choose to sit back and throw darts as costs rise or things fall behind schedule, but they are not making a fundamental case against the plan. Perhaps they realise that if they do form the next government, they may be wise not to have drawn a line in the sand that they may have to walk back.
- The issue for government is not really the voter directly, but where they raise money for infrastructure. A financing plan that pulls in private investment (even if in some obscure way) seems to be doable here. The angst for government is how they would explain huge investment in highways and airports in an environment where private involvement in these is less welcome and direct user fees for these are a third rail proposition. (ask Doug Ford about that one).
- It's remarkable how VIA pitched its original HFR based on the lowest possible capital cost, out of fear of taxpayer resistance - yet the plan has morphed to a much higher cost estimate for something that even a decade ago was seen as a bauble. The government's observation that a branding strategy was needed has worked - "Alto" seems to be sticking. The voters have not revolted. Alberta has bigger things to grind an axe over, and may be eager to have an Alto of its own.
- Air travel has pretty much lost its attractiveness for corridor length travel. Porter may still be a conspicuous exception, but Westjet is reducing seat pitch and removing reclining seats. The public's appetite for something better is growing and may have passed a tipping point.
- The urban construction industry, which was perking along nicely, has stalled. A lot of construction workers and their unions are wondering where the next project is going to come from.
A long rant but I think it's time to accept - this thing is going to happen.
- Paul
