GO Transit: Construction Projects (Metrolinx, various)

[DirectionNorth]

Just rambling, but ...

To give credit where due, this is one of the more constructive and insightful things I have ever seen come from Metrolinx - this kind of "how to get from here to the goal" analysis has been very much absent to date.

If I recall correctly, one of the big frustrations that led to Deutsche Bahn pulling out, was that Metrolinx had no idea what kind of scope it wanted. Having that now (even if $26 billion for 4TPH to Burlington/Bramalea/Maple/Unionville/Oshawa is a ridiculously high number) will be immensely helpful for future service planning, and hopefully, result in no more unused works sitting for a decade (KI line 401 tunnel) or service cutbacks (Lakeshore lines 15 minute service) because there was something they forgot to do.

There are a couple of small things I would challenge - e.g. 4th track Nickle to Humberview is declared "complete' when in fact the signalling has not been cut in and not one train has ever actually used that segment. But I won't dwell on these.

In general, one has to be cautious in the sense that some of the items listed as necessary to reach the end state are pretty big ticket and long lead time things, so the end state is still a ways off. But it's really good to have this level of candour and detail about what must be done to get there.

And we should all save a copy of this document, so that we can compare it to whatever is issued in a year or two.... ML still needs to demonstrate that it can preserve a previously defined scope and attack it with discipline. Come back in a year and show us that the goalposts haven't moved, and there is substantive progress to move forward, with the longest lead time items getting launched soonest.

- Paul

PS - and please add some general timelines, and show which of these tasks have committed funding and which still need funding approved.

For posterity ... someone (not me) put the 11-page slide deck into the Internet Archive. Link is here. I also downloaded a copy in case that one somehow gets lost.

We shall come back in ~1 year and see how well Metrolinx is doing.

In looking over the document above....it was my conclusion, at first blush, that the Barrie Corridor is closest to achieving improvements that will be substantial and noticeable to the public, followed by K-W.

Electrification aside LSE will have out-of-service track for several years, and the major grade separations in Scarborough remain pending, if increasingly imminent.

LSW requires the O/L work at Exhibtiion out of the way, and probably the rebuilding of the Dufferin/Dowling bridges etc.....so that's at least a couple of years.

Stouffville is question mark.

Thoughts?

Maybe I am missing something (lack of equipment/crews?) ... but I don't see any barriers for 15 minutes to Oshawa and Burlington in the document. Clearly they are capable of it, since that service was run until this weekend.

 

[crs1026]

@crs1026

In looking over the document above....it was my conclusion, at first blush, that the Barrie Corridor is closest to achieving improvements that will be substantial and noticeable to the public, followed by K-W.

Electrification aside LSE will have out-of-service track for several years, and the major grade separations in Scarborough remain pending, if increasingly imminent.

LSW requires the O/L work at Exhibtiion out of the way, and probably the rebuilding of the Dufferin/Dowling bridges etc.....so that's at least a couple of years.

Stouffville is question mark.

Thoughts?

Agreed - if, that is....the work that is needed is executed with dispatch.

Barrie has very few remaining major civil tasks, and there is a lot of lesser tasks that are effectively low hanging fruit that can quickly lead to service improvements. It's on ML to get these finished, and not rest on their oars or drag these out.

Until ML has a firm design for the Halton Sub, there is only so much that can be done along the KW line. Woodbine and St Clair stations will be constraints. But again, there are lesser tasks (Acton, Guelph) that could make a big difference towards the interim state.

Stouffville needs that one big ticket item - West Highland Creek - plus is constrained by the OL work, and perhaps the Scarborough Jct - Kennedy segment. A lot of the early work done on that line is just plain stranded until these get done. There is a political hazard to this line that the others don't have.

- Paul

 

[Northern Light]

Maybe I am missing something (lack of equipment/crews?) ... but I don't see any barriers for 15 minutes to Oshawa and Burlington in the document. Clearly they are capable of it, since that service was run until this weekend.

There's no question that they could do this, in theory; its that they are choosing not to.

The choice they've made is not to run 15M during the O/L work periods excepting rush hours.

If they maintain that choice, we're stuck waiting til the joint corridor works are done, and potentially, there are 3 continuous tracks in service at all times from Guildwood to Oakville.

They could (and should) make other choices......but there ya go.

 

[chrisw]

Interesting that the Barrie corridor got descoped a bit. The original goal was 15 min to Aurora and 60 min to Barrie. The 15 min commitment to Aurora was quite public, repeated everywhere.

They decided on 15 min to Maple, 30 min to Aurora, 60 min to Bradford, 120 min to Allandale.
---
Regarding Stouffville, what's the Turn back Signal at Stouffville Station? That sounds like a small project.

It enables 2 hour off peak to Stouffville Go, and a contra peak trip to Mt Joy.

That's big as Stouffville GO only receives peak trips currently, and the contra peak only goes to Unionville GO.

 

[crs1026]

This kind of thing does happen in construction projects all the time. We are expected to sort it out in days, not weeks or months or, as here, years. I'm certainly not putting this on you, but it's utterly absurd Metrolinx and CPKC are just able to go 'meh, maybe later' on something like this. For the love of god, it's not even on the stupid chart posted above.

If you are going to excavate a site to put in the parking garage under a planned new building, and you discover that the excavation will undermine the adjoining buildings, the path forward is what it is.
But if your neighbour is thinking of adding more stories, but isn't sure how many stories their building needs to add, and if you need to actually remove their building to do your pilings, and your neighbour can't absorb the disruption of moving out for a year, then the problem becomes more complex.
Replacing or strengthening the CPKC bridge is at the high end of complexity. The prospect of Alto or GO adding to the CPKC route adds uncertainty. CPKC may advise that the replacement bridge should be four tracks wide and not the current two. And how to reroute CPKC trains around the construction site while work proceeds.... it's a pretty complicated design. And add in whatever geotechnical issues may have arisen that affected the original plan.... and then the legalities around who pays for what....
I would not downplay the complexity of this bump in the road.
I won't judge whether ML is moving effectively, but it's a big challenge to tackle.

- Paul

 

[PShells]

Regarding Stouffville, what's the Turn back Signal at Stouffville Station? That sounds like a small project.

It enables 2 hour off peak to Stouffville Go, and a contra peak trip to Mt Joy.

That's big as Stouffville GO only receives peak trips currently, and the contra peak only goes to Unionville GO.

It’s a signal that allows trains to return trip south from Stouffville without going all the way to Old Elm.

I believe the second platform/passing track at Mount Joy station is required as well.

I’ve been looking forward for this contract to be awarded on MERX as it’s been in the CPG Pipeline document for years. This latest slide deck suggests the project is already under construction. Perhaps it’s been moved to OnExpress so we won’t see a separate contract for the work and things like utility relocates and surveying has already begun.

 

[chrisw]

I believe the second platform/passing track at Mount Joy station is required as well.

The document suggests that is only required for 60 min off peak service to Stouffville and they can do 120 min off peak service without that. It seems reasonable? The only question is whether running the service is worth it to them, the demand could be low.

 

[Thaboss]

There is a political hazard to this line that the others don't have

What hazard would that be (I'm totally clueless here)

 

[Northern Light]

If you are going to excavate a site to put in the parking garage under a planned new building, and you discover that the excavation will undermine the adjoining buildings, the path forward is what it is.
But if your neighbour is thinking of adding more stories, but isn't sure how many stories their building needs to add, and if you need to actually remove their building to do your pilings, and your neighbour can't absorb the disruption of moving out for a year, then the problem becomes more complex.
Replacing or strengthening the CPKC bridge is at the high end of complexity. The prospect of Alto or GO adding to the CPKC route adds uncertainty. CPKC may advise that the replacement bridge should be four tracks wide and not the current two. And how to reroute CPKC trains around the construction site while work proceeds.... it's a pretty complicated design. And add in whatever geotechnical issues may have arisen that affected the original plan.... and then the legalities around who pays for what....
I would not downplay the complexity of this bump in the road.
I won't judge whether ML is moving effectively, but it's a big challenge to tackle.

- Paul

As ever here, the problem is Mx's opaqueness.

Everyone in this discussion is aware of different mitigation measures that could be taken to secure the existing bridge, and if that is the entirety of the task, that it could be advanced more quickly than it has.

But as you note, we're not sure if that is the entire task. We're not sure if its not, why not. We don't know if replacement has been deemed necessary, or widening, nor minor-realignment, or grading change.

We also don't know if the unexpected scope of work couldn't be reasonably accommodated within available resources, since we neither know the scope of work, nor the resources available.

Being transparent would resolve all of the above. It might get Mx a reprieve from endless criticism/cynicism.... or it might elicit a constructive suggestion from those here or elsewhere that could help resolve the issue.

But sadly, tis not so.

 

[innsertnamehere]

Interesting that the Barrie corridor got descoped a bit. The original goal was 15 min to Aurora and 60 min to Barrie. The 15 min commitment to Aurora was quite public, repeated everywhere.

They decided on 15 min to Maple, 30 min to Aurora, 60 min to Bradford, 120 min to Allandale.
---
Regarding Stouffville, what's the Turn back Signal at Stouffville Station? That sounds like a small project.

It enables 2 hour off peak to Stouffville Go, and a contra peak trip to Mt Joy.

That's big as Stouffville GO only receives peak trips currently, and the contra peak only goes to Unionville GO.

They made a big hoopla of extending 15 minute service to Bradford years ago.. now it's back to Maple?

 

[ARG1]

They have now reposted the documents that were removed. I can't find any changes offhand. The reference to the Dec. 7 Finch LRT opening day is still there. I guess they figured the cat was out of the bag. Aecon also released this press release today about completing the Finch LRT.

Aside from restoring the documents that were removed, they also posted an additional document. I won't post the whole thing (though I have downloaded it), but I will post a few slides.

View attachment 697525
View attachment 697526
View attachment 697527
I will also tag @crs1026 since I know workflows are something he follows.

There's a lot of eyebrow raisers with that first map that I haven't seen people bring up in this thread.

1) It looks like electrification to Bramalea is dead, and the only thing that will be electrified is the UP Express. I know they had issues with getting electrification to Bramalea and were considering stopping at Malton for a bit, but now it seems to be shuttered completely.

2) Barrie frequencies took a hard hit. Metrolinx was promising back in 2021 (there was even a presser from Doug about it) that Bradford would get 15m service, but now their target is every hour. Ouch. https://www.metrolinx.com/en/discover/15-minute,-two-way,-all-day-go-coming-north-to-bradford. Its even harsher compared to the DB plan which had trains to Allandale every 20m, and now its down to every 2 hours.

3) Despite this, it seems they have set the goal of electrifying the line all the way to Barrie which does seem like a curious use of resources. I'm not completely against it, but I'm not sure why electrification to Barrie should be a priority when you're running a train once every 2 hours.

4)It does seem like electrifying under the shed seems to be back on the table as a "USRC Phase 2" which is some sort of silver lining. This could just mean battery, but considering that the only parts of the network that they're "electrifying" are the conventional GO owned sections, I doubt that's what its referring to.

5) Concord GO seems to be completely missing in all of these maps. I wonder what happened to it?

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

They made a big hoopla of extending 15 minute service to Bradford years ago.. now it's back to Maple?

Interesting that the Barrie corridor got descoped a bit. The original goal was 15 min to Aurora and 60 min to Barrie. The 15 min commitment to Aurora was quite public, repeated everywhere.

They decided on 15 min to Maple, 30 min to Aurora, 60 min to Bradford, 120 min to Allandale.
---
Regarding Stouffville, what's the Turn back Signal at Stouffville Station? That sounds like a small project.

It enables 2 hour off peak to Stouffville Go, and a contra peak trip to Mt Joy.

That's big as Stouffville GO only receives peak trips currently, and the contra peak only goes to Unionville GO.

People in Barrie and Newmarket need to make noise about this. They own the whole line. They need to stick to previous commitments and provide 15-minute service to Bradford and 60-minute service to Barrie.

 

[crs1026]

People in Barrie and Newmarket need to make noise about this. They own the whole line. They need to stick to previous commitments and provide 15-minute service to Bradford and 60-minute service to Barrie.

This is why I keep ranting about scope. GO service planning is not like a zoning debate where the number of floors in a tower may be fluid and bounce around until all concerned find an acceptable landing point.
The GO service plan is information given to GTA communities and individuals who rely on these commitments to make many plans. Finding out that your town is ‘t on the 2WAD grid ought to be hugely controversial if the previous iteration declared that it was. The GO service plan is closer to something signed in blood.
I can’t help but wonder why the opposition parties aren’t all over the delays and walkbacks in the GO plan. While the 905 went solidly blue in the last election, one has to think that some of those seats would swing if residents realised that DoFo had just reneged and effectively scammed them. But maybe I am out of touch with 905 and 915 politics.

- Paul

 

[crs1026]

Interesting that the Barrie corridor got descoped a bit. The original goal was 15 min to Aurora and 60 min to Barrie. The 15 min commitment to Aurora was quite public, repeated everywhere.

They decided on 15 min to Maple, 30 min to Aurora, 60 min to Bradford, 120 min to Allandale.
---

Doubly puzzling since the plan describes double tracking being extended from Kirby (ie north of Maple) to "King Lumber" (Dufferin St) - this is already shovels in the ground - and since the stretch from Dufferin to Bathurst has already been widened with subgrade for a 2nd track now in place (less one culvert over Lake Pino) all the way to Bathurst. That would leave only a short stretch of about 2.6 miles of single track north to Aurora - easily handling 15 minute 2- way service.

- Paul

 

[kotsy]

Eastern Bridge/LSE Corridor update: