urbanclient
Active Member
I never claimed 15,000 would be the demand on Day 1, I simply pointed out that was the eventual target route capacity, not demand. The concept that population numbers blowing past projections 5-10 years early would have some impact on demand in the regional network is not something you appear to grasp. I even countered my own argument for you with the fact RTO has not fully happened and subway ridership is still down. All you have done is be stubborn, strawman and ad hominem attack people without making a single cohesive argument to support your conclusions.I'm not sure what population numbers have to do with much; whether Milton doubles or quadruples does nothing for Line 5 demand. Nor do I see any differing PPHPD estimates in this TLDR full of tangents. I certainly don't see the 15,000 demand that I think you mentioned here.
Agree to disagree sure. But twisting all sorts of technical stuff to make different conclusions than the experts come across as the same kind of conspiracy theorist nonsense as the nutters who think vaccines are harmful, or keep trying to prove to us with "science" that the USA blew up the World Trade Centre themselves.
I tried to be civil and engage in reasonable debate, but you have misunderstood or misrepresented my argument multiple times over several threads—at best because you do not or cannot read, at worst you intentionally misrepresent what I say.
Here is my first post on route capacity:
https://urbantoronto.ca/forum/threa...ne-5-m-s-metrolinx-arcadis.11782/post-2304066
Regarding demand, I speculated it would be higher than originally predicted because those predictions were made a long time ago with data dating as far back as the 2001 and 2006 Censuses (see sources cited by TTC/Toronto in 2010 and Mx 2012). These population projections that were the basis for ridership projections and route capacity significantly underestimated the actual population we would have by today. I also never claimed a number for demand because: A. I haven't bothered to dive that deep and create a model to simulate demand. B. because they cannot run 15,000 or even much lower passengers per direction per hour capacity on opening day. Right now, I can roughly calculate route capacity with info @smallspy has kindly provided, but this napkin math would be highly speculative because we don't know the spare ratio and ultimately how the TTC will operate the line. If capacity were the limiting factor for peak ridership, it doesn't matter what peak demand is.
The assumption I made is that anyone willing to dismiss my argument offhand would have bothered to make sure they knew what they were talking about. Besides calling people "morons" and "conspiracy theorist", have you said anything of substance? Misrepresenting my argument and calling people names doesn't logically or empirically prove your point. Not being able to or not bothering to read someone's argument before calling them a conspiracy theorist sounds like emotional thinking instead of rational debating to me.
TTC/Toronto in 2010 and Mx 2012:
https://www.metrolinx.com/en/projects-and-programs/eglinton-crosstown-lrt/studies
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