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2025 44th Ontario general election (Feb 27, 2025)

Doug will likely win again, but all that good will and support he gained after speaking out against Trump and threatening to shut off the electricity to the US has evaporated.

I’ve seen a few of his interviews on American news channels and this recent trip to Washington, and I must say….the guy is an absolute suck up to the Yanks. Have some dignity and self respect for goodness sake. He has this hard on for “AmCan” or whatever the heck he’s trying to sell to those warmongering melts down south. Keeps on harping about how “China is the enemy”, when they have literally done nothing to Canada….if anything, China is going to be Canada’s lifeline with the way things are looking down south. And his weird takes on Mexico to, a country that Canada will have to work with in order to put the screws on Washington.

If he had just kept his mouth shut and continued on with his “Canada is not for sale” motto, there’s a very good chance he would have won the election by a good margin. It reminds me of how everyone rallied behind Bush after 9/11….not saying I support either of them, but he played all his cards right for two weeks and then he remembered his head is made of limestone.

Instead, now he’s looking like an absolute buffoon with that silly “Premiers Trip” to Washington. What an embarrassment. They were literally insulted and humiliated and then sent back to Canada with their tales between their legs. No diplomatic courtesy whatsoever from the Yanks.

It’s doing rounds on Tik Tok right now….I must say, this might be one of the highest voter turnouts in recent history. A lot of people are charged up, and Dougy better strap his seatbelt on because I think he blundered here big time.

Just like how PP’s cratered in the polls, Doug is starting to slip up (and rightfully so).
 
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This debate is ... interesting. From Bonnie's vacant unbreakable stare into the camera when someone is talking to her, to "where would you go on a day off in Ontario" as a pressing debate question.
 
This debate is ... interesting. From Bonnie's vacant unbreakable stare into the camera when someone is talking to her,

Poor awareness in debates....and involuntary facial expressions, while unfortunate.......are understandable at some level...

to "where would you go on a day off in Ontario" as a pressing debate question.

That question, however, was intentional..........and therefore unforgivably vapid and idiotic.
 
I really don't see how Doug loses this election.
After this debate, I like Bonnie less and I already didn't like her Ford lite soundbites, Stiles about the same and would vote NDP despite of her handling of Jama if they weren't 3rd place in my riding, and Mike's flip flop on catholic schools was disappointing.

How long are we giving Crombie after the election?
 
I am not a Doug Ford supporter, but during the 2025 Ontario election, I keep receiving this text message:

Doug Ford here. I will stand up and fight US tariffs to save Ontario jobs.

REPLY > YES if you're with me and the PC team.

stop to stop

I deleted the text message first thing.

I searched online and I found that many others are receiving the same text message:


I find it extremely suspicious given that I never give the Ontario PCs (or any other political party) my phone number.

Note the complete lack of Bonnie Crombie or Marit Stiles equivalent text messages.
 
I really don't see how Doug loses this election.
After this debate, I like Bonnie less and I already didn't like her Ford lite soundbites, Stiles about the same and would vote NDP despite of her handling of Jama if they weren't 3rd place in my riding, and Mike's flip flop on catholic schools was disappointing.

How long are we giving Crombie after the election?
I found Crombie strident in comparison to Ford's smarminess. She came across as nervous. The other 2 candidates were pretty much as expected. Nevertheless, I picked up a sign for my local Liberal candidate and hope it's still standing by election day.
 
Judging by the number of KWT signs in my neighbourhood I think Toronto Centre is a lost cause, but I’m going to vote for the OLP so to hopefully put them into opposition now for the 2029 election.
Generally-speaking, signs are not a good barometre for determining who might win a riding. I believe Xiao Hua Gong had a good number of signs during the last mayoral election and that was all for naught.

I will be going to my nearby advance poll tonight to cast my vote and I encourage everyone else to go out and vote whenever possible. Don't care who you vote for but go out and vote!
 
I toyed with the vote simulator and seat projections over at 338.

I found its estimation most curious.....
(this is with me having adjusted the popular vote, modestly)
1740169156496.png


Does anyone remember a party getting 41% of the vote and a minority?

Feel free to have your own fun:

 
I toyed with the vote simulator and seat projections over at 338.

I found its estimation most curious.....
(this is with me having adjusted the popular vote, modestly)
View attachment 632266

Does anyone remember a party getting 41% of the vote and a minority?

Feel free to have your own fun:


It's fascinating to see just how inefficient the Liberal vote is across the province. Makes me wonder if the Liberals regret Dalton McGuinty's decision to not take a formal "pro-reform" position
during the 2007 Mixed-member proportional representation referendum.
 
It's fascinating to see just how inefficient the Liberal vote is across the province. Makes me wonder if the Liberals regret Dalton McGuinty's decision to not take a formal "pro-reform" position
during the 2007 Mixed-member proportional representation referendum.

Hmmm, in the above scenario, the most efficient vote is NDP, that is to say they end up, in that model with 25% more seats than their share of the vote would suggest.

The least efficient vote is the Greens, in that 6.4% of the vote should net 8 seats, but shows 2 instead. 75% below their share of the vote.

The Conservatives end up with about 10% more seats than their vote share would suggest.

While the Libs end up 4 seats light or about 10% light.

Thing is...Team Red and Team Blue rarely have since reform interest, because they both gain excess votes when they lead the polls.

Neither is particularly keen on power sharing, historically, especially with the other.

The Greens are whole hearted sponsors of PR.

The NDP when given a chance, have usually been less than enthusiastic too...... Curiously here, they are over represented in this model; but it has often gone the other way for them too.
 

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