2014 Municipal Election: Toronto Mayoral Race

[nfitz]

I think Tory will be the non-Ford candidate most likely to successfully disarm and diffuse the divisions propagated by the Fords, whereas with a Chow mayoralty I think Ford Nation is more likely to re-group and attempt to take power again in 2018.

I certainly agree as well. Tory is most likely to create political peace in this city. He'll surely be a respected and safe figure who won't embarrass Toronto in the way previous Conservative mayors have like Rob Ford, or even Mel Lastman.

 

[salsa]

Most Chow supporters are desperate to paint Tory as some "wolf in sheep's clothing" right-wing nut. They are going all out to equate Tory and Ford. That's the new talking point. You see it everywhere from Chow supporters.

Personally I haven't heard many Chow supporters paint Tory as a right wing nut, and I don't see it that way either. But lets put aside the differences in personality for a moment and look at Tory's platform:

- Keep taxes low
- No new taxes for transit (only fantasy schemes allowed)
- Efficiencies!
- Pandering to motorists
- Anything that removes car lanes is a non-starter
- Against Eglinton Connects
- Against open streets
- Not interested in cycling issues
- Pro-subway in Scarborough, anti-subway where it's actually needed
- Privatise city services

Sound familiar? This is a gravy train 2.0. Ya ok, he's not a right wing nut, but he's a Ford in sheep's clothing, and definitely not progressive. I'm almost tempted to vote for Ari after he pointed that out.

Oh, and Tory endorsed Ford in both words and money, and defended him on his radio show. Same campaign manager too.

 

[Ramako]

Because I believe the cut-off is less than $100K? In that poll above, 24% said $75K and 7% said $60K. That's 31% that agree with me that it's less than $100K. That suggests to me I'm not off the deep end.

No, because you believe that most people would consider multiple children having to live in the same bedroom "comfortable".

 

[GenerationW]

Personally I haven't heard many Chow supporters paint Tory as a right wing nut, and I don't see it that way either. But lets put aside the differences in personality for a moment and look at Tory's platform:

- Keep taxes low
- No new taxes for transit (only fantasy schemes allowed)
- Efficiencies!

Sound familiar?

Yeah, I've heard Chow talk about these ones.

 

[nfitz]

Median family incomes for downtown Toronto are much higher, which would also belie this idea of living comfortably on family incomes that are 40% below average (for the core) or 15% below regional average.

Are downtown incomes that much higher? It's tougher to tell these days since the Conservatives cancelled the 2011 long-form census.

But going back to the 2006 data - Median income in 2005 - Couple households with children Ontario is $87,960.

Downtown Ridings
Toronto Centre - 63,047
Trinity-Spadina - 80,095
Toronto-Danforth - 80,643
Davenport - 68,125

Suburban Ridings
Etobicoke North - 62,070
Etobicoke Centre - 95,976
Done Valley East - 63,081
Scarborough-Rouge River - 65,090
Willowdale - 79,846

The incomes in the core of downtown are as low as some of the outer suburbs. All the downtown ones I checked are lower than the provincial average.

And these are medians. 50% are below!

 

[nfitz]

No, because you believe that most people would consider multiple children having to live in the same bedroom "comfortable".

Might be the definition of "comfortable". Obviously would be tight.

I used $1,400 a month. There are 3-bedroom units in co-ops right in the core of downtown for $1,400. If this issue really is that important, the numbers can still work, and the kids can each have a room.

 

[DarnDirtyApe]

might be the definition of "comfortable". Obviously would be tight.

I used $1,400 a month. there are 3-bedroom units in co-ops right in the core of downtown for $1,400. If this issue really is that important, the numbers can still work, and the kids can each have a room.

co-op?!?! Chow layton subsidized apartment blah blah blah!!!

 

[kEiThZ]

But going back to the 2006 data

You really going to ignore 8 years of inflation, particularly given home price and rent inflation in that time?

Also, you can use the City of Toronto's own fact sheets. National Household Survey Profiles for each Community Council Area:

http://www1.toronto.ca/wps/portal/c...nnel=1e68f40f9aae0410VgnVCM10000071d60f89RCRD

Area C (Toronto and East York) has average household income of $90k. So I guess I was wrong. It's not 40% below average. It's 33% below average.

 

[nfitz]

co-op?!?! Chow layton subsidized apartment blah blah blah!!!

How does one possibly equate "co-op" to "subsidized"? Co-op is merely a legal structure. Aren't many condo buildings run by co-ops? Aren't people who get government subsidies to buy their first home subsidized?

 

[salsa]

Yeah, I've heard Chow talk about these ones.

Me too, in that she chastised Tory about these ones. Last time I checked, she wants to increase the land transfer tax and use part of it to pay for transit, so the first two points does not apply to her. As for efficiencies, "I am promising that no services will be cut if elected. I will keep tax increases at or below the rate of inflation by finding efficiencies and wringing more money for Toronto out of the federal and provincial governments." Would you like to guess who said that?

 

[kEiThZ]

Might be the definition of "comfortable". Obviously would be tight.

I used $1,400 a month. There are 3-bedroom units in co-ops right in the core of downtown for $1,400. If this issue really is that important, the numbers can still work, and the kids can each have a room.

This example perfectly explains why Chow thinks $60k would yield a comfortable lifestyle for a family of four.

What happens to the average middle class family that either doesn't want or would not be eligible for co-op housing? Or heck, can't really endure the near decade long waiting list for many of these places in the core.

And that's aside from the idea that most families would not consider co-op living to be "comfortable".

 

[kEiThZ]

How does one possibly equate "co-op" to "subsidized"? Co-op is merely a legal structure. Aren't many condo buildings run by co-ops? Aren't people who get government subsidies to buy their first home subsidized?

Not that I'm against co-ops, but I'd like to know how they aren't subsidized living? If they weren't co-ops and you were paying market rate, good luck getting a one bedroom apartment for less than 1k with heat, hydro and basic cable included, near the Distillery District? And parking is only $60?

I know people that pay nearly as much to share basements in the core.

They aren't subsidized in the traditional sense (ongoing funds from government), but they certainly gained advantages by having the land to develop endowed to them.

 

[nfitz]

You really going to ignore 8 years of inflation, particularly given home price and rent inflation in that time?

Unfortunately it's the best data out there.

It doesn't change that downtown is below the provincial average though. I hadn't seen those Toronto sheets - and we've all heard stories about the data problems in the National Household Survey with strange results, and certain groups being very underrepresented. Also, I don't see married family breakdowns in it.

Still, looking at Toronto-Centre, downtown - the median family income is $47,675 compared to $58,381 for the city as a whole. So the case that downtown family incomes are much higher isn't supported by the data - if anything they are lower.

Area C (Toronto and East York) has average household income of $90k. So I guess I was wrong. It's not 40% below average. It's 33% below average.

That's the average though. That's hugely mis-leading and is biased by those with huge salaries. Go to page 12, and you'll see though the average is $90,567, the median is only $58,697. Which means 50% are below $58,697!

What happens to the average middle class family that either doesn't want or would not be eligible for co-op housing?

You think a co-op that has a $ requirement would stop a family of 4 earning $60K? I think the co-op I linked has no $ limits. You could earn $1-billion a year. Why do you think co-ops would have a $ limit? It's privately owned, and may not have any government subsidy. I don't think you know what a co-op is!

Or heck, can't really endure the near decade long waiting list for many of these places in the core.

Isn't that exactly how we started this discussion? That voting for someone like Tory who thinks you need $100,000 to live in Toronto is not the direction we should be going?

Not that I'm against co-ops, but I'd like to know how they aren't subsidized living?

What has co-ops got to do with subsidized living? It's simply a building that's owned by a non-profit co-operative rather than a corporation making a profit. Some may be subsidized. Some aren't. Some may have some internal subsidy going on.

Mountain Equipment Co-op is a co-op that runs a store selling things. Do you think it is subsidized?

 

[kEiThZ]

That's the average though. That's hugely mis-leading and is biased by those with huge salaries. Go to page 12, and you'll see though the average is $90,567, the median is only $58,697. Which means 50% are below $58,697!

Again. The question was about living comfortably, not about scrapping by. I highly doubt those families that are below median consider themselves comfortable.

What has co-ops got to do with subsidized living? It's simply a building that's owned by a non-profit co-operative rather than a corporation making a profit. Some may be subsidized. Some aren't. Some may have some internal subsidy going on.

You think a co-op that has a $ requirement would stop a family of 4 earning $60K? I think the co-op I linked has no $ limits. You could earn $1-billion a year. Why do you think co-ops would have a $ limit? It's privately owned, and may not have any government subsidy. I don't think you know what a co-op is!

Please read the rest of my post. I absolutely do know what a co-op is. I just asked a simple question. If your supposedly "market rent" is below what most would pay in that area, how is that not a subsidy? Sure, it's not a direct subsidy (direct injection of government funds offsetting costs). But co-ops getting lands for cheap or free, with discounted CMHC backed loans (especially back in the 70s and 80s) are certainly benefitting from some indirect subsidies. I'll bet a lot of developers would love to have access to those facilities.

I have nothing against it. I'd just like to call it what it is.

And where did I ever say anything about some $ requirement stopping this family of 4 earning $60k? I said that most families would not consider living in a co-op comfortable. To me that's common sense. But feel free to disagree.

Isn't that exactly how we started this discussion? That voting for someone like Tory who thinks you need $100,000 to live in Toronto is not the direction we should be going?

Of course you'd resort to distorting a simple response from him. We can't really expect you to be truthful, can we? He didn't say you need $100k to live in Toronto. He said, a family of four, needs $100k to live comfortably in the downtown core. There's a huge difference between what you inferred he said and what he actually said.

And yes, most Toronto residents would agree with him.

And again I ask, what does it say about Chow that only 7% of those who answered that CTV poll agree with her perception of what the average middle class family needs?

Mountain Equipment Co-op is a co-op that runs a store selling things. Do you think it is subsidized?

This discussion ends if you decide to be patronizing, insulting and/or belligerent. Hope the mods take note.

 

[kEiThZ]

@nfitz

I'm not going back on forth on this anymore.

All candidates make mistakes. And on this one, I do think Chow made a mistake. The only question is, whether it was a genuine mistake (she misunderstod the question) or whether she actually believes that a family of four can live comfortably on $60k per year in the downtown core.

You seem to agree with her. The rest of us seem to think that your definition of comfortable involves quite a few sacrifices from the norms. Whatever.

What matters is what the public thinks, not what we think. And most of Toronto was left scratching their heads at Chow. Politics is about perception. And this could very easily show Chow to be out-of-touch with middle class voters (though I would agree that she's very much in-touch with the needs of the poor). Chow's campaign would be well-served to clarify what she really meant. If not we can take at face-value that she believes $60k is a comfortable living for a family of four in the downtown core. And most voters will weigh that comment, however they will, into their judgement of her.