If the TBMs from Spadina are transferred there, it should make it more cost-effective. I agree that buying TBMs for that little stretch makes no sense though.
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TTC: Sheppard Subway Expansion (Speculative)
- Thread starter LAz
- Start date
If the TBMs from Spadina are transferred there, it should make it more cost-effective. I agree that buying TBMs for that little stretch makes no sense though.
leopetr
Active Member
Well, arguably:
1. Oil production has plateaued and will likely start to decline in a few years. Give that demand is not decreasing, this will drive continue to drive gas prices up. At some point, this will price gasoline out of reach for the middle class and force everyone to transfer to more energy efficient modes of transportation, like mass transit.
2. Everything north of Bloor was a suburb not that long ago. Things change.
Regardless, I do not think a Sheppard subway is a good use of money, but all transit lines could conceivably go over capacity in a few decades.
BurlOak
Senior Member
I would guess that even if you have a used TBM, it may need refurbishing. Also, the cost of launching and extracting the TBM must make up a large portion of the cost if you are only going 1 or 2 km. Look at Eglinton - I believe they have been doing the launching area for over a half a year and it will only be summer before they actually start boring - that is a sunk cost regardless of whether you tunnel just under the 404 or a greater distance.
If you are to do any type of TBM work, I would say go to at least Agincourt GO. That also seems like a better tranfer point than Vic Park.
uptownto
New Member
What if we take into account the increased tax revenues from the new development because of the subway being built when doing this analysis. I imagine the condos just at Bayview+Sheppard (nevermind Yonge, Bessarion, Don Mills, and the general reinvestment in the surrounding neighbourhoods, etc) make up for that $10M a year (in subsidy). These don't get built and the increased revenues are not realized if there's just a bus route.
W. K. Lis
Superstar
Extending the Sheppard Subway would be a waste. Didn't Rob Ford say he was elected to stop the waste? Why create more waste on a subway that can be handled easily by light rail AND could eventually run all the way to the zoo at less cost but serve more transit users?
Palma
Senior Member
BEcause he thinks those Scarborough votes will win him the next election
drum118
Superstar
Just got some 2011 numbers for TTC and some real surprise numbers. I will double check to see what TTC is using as fare recovery per rider to take into consideration of all types of fare.
For now, I will be using $1.70 as fare recovery.
The following figures are based on TTC numbers and only got a few routes in a spreadsheet at this time. Between the $1.70 and the cost per riders per route, TTC is making a profit of as much as $.28 per rider on surface routes. First time I seen these numbers.
Once I do the spreadsheet, will post a link to it.
The figures are rider/hr, rider/km cost/ride, cost/vehicle/km lost or profit.
Sheppard 85 : 63.02, 2.98, $2.16, $6.44, lost $.46
190: 77.76 3.94, $1.76, $6.59, lost $.06
510/509: 123.11, 9.08, $1.42, $12.48, Profit $.28
512: 101.25, 7.36, $1.82, $13.41 Lost $.12
501: 76.32, 5.06, $2.33, $11.79 Lost $.63
Dufferin 29: 77.84, 4.78, $1.61, $7.72 Profit $.09
192: 46.67, 1.27, $3.38, $4.30 Lost $1.68
Bathurst #7: 78.38, 4.42, $1.62, $7.16 Profit $.08
For now, I will be using $1.70 as fare recovery.
The following figures are based on TTC numbers and only got a few routes in a spreadsheet at this time. Between the $1.70 and the cost per riders per route, TTC is making a profit of as much as $.28 per rider on surface routes. First time I seen these numbers.
Once I do the spreadsheet, will post a link to it.
The figures are rider/hr, rider/km cost/ride, cost/vehicle/km lost or profit.
Sheppard 85 : 63.02, 2.98, $2.16, $6.44, lost $.46
190: 77.76 3.94, $1.76, $6.59, lost $.06
510/509: 123.11, 9.08, $1.42, $12.48, Profit $.28
512: 101.25, 7.36, $1.82, $13.41 Lost $.12
501: 76.32, 5.06, $2.33, $11.79 Lost $.63
Dufferin 29: 77.84, 4.78, $1.61, $7.72 Profit $.09
192: 46.67, 1.27, $3.38, $4.30 Lost $1.68
Bathurst #7: 78.38, 4.42, $1.62, $7.16 Profit $.08
Filip
Senior Member
Scrap the 501, it's a drain on taxpayer budgets!!!
Electrify
Senior Member
Check my signature for a creative and affordable solution as for what to do with Sheppard...
Rainforest
Senior Member
These numbers confirm that the most cost-effective routes are those with strong rider turnover: 510 / 509, Dufferin 29, and Bathurst 7 ... as expected in a flat-fare system.
Are the stats available for the Sheppard, YUS, and BD subways?
Rainforest
Senior Member
That route certainly needs better management and perhaps should be split in two. However, the kind of rides (long rides) it serves will always be unprofitable in the flat-fare system; the losses will be just spread between other routes.
Interestingly, the worst is 192 Airport Rocket, despite being quite popular ... which brings a question whether a higher fare is justified on that route.
rbt
Senior Member
Sure. From the perspective of the province I believe the capital has been paid for via indirect tax revenues (income, sales, etc.)
From the perspective of the TTC, which is now having their operating subsidy reduced by the City of Toronto AND the province (both are holding at a specific dollar value; inflation decreases the value of that dollar value) those revenues are not helpful and we get bus route cuts as a result.
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Justin10000
Banned
Scrap the express buses! They're are even a larger drain on taxpayer budgets! Esp. the 145. Waste of money.
drum118
Superstar
I have never seen a breakdown for subway like the surface routes. I have seen ridership numbers, but no cost, hrs and km.
Based on what I have done so far, need to add a few other cost to see what is really going on between the old way and these numbers.
510/509 is lump in as one route and skew both routes out come.
rbt
Senior Member
I don't think you ever will either, especially with capital mixed in.
Bus cost recovery numbers can include capital (we know what York Region is charged for service and we know TTC includes all expenses, operating and rolling stock capital, in that number).
A subway number with capital may well be in the 25% range for everything but the southern tip of Yonge based on direct revenue.
That said, Highway 401 is closer to 1% cost recovery based on direct revenue (service station leases).