MoveOntario 2020: GO Transit Electrification

[nfitz]

I don't recall it exactly but didn't the big move declare the GT line the 2nd highest density transit corridor in the study area (behind only the Bloor subway).....perhaps that is why it is getting the investment it is now and also being prioritized for electrification?

In terms of hard numbers, if you look at AM Peak Hour, Peak point riders in the Big Move 25-year plan (presumably 2034), the biggest 12 projects are:

1. Lakeshore East - 26,300
2. YUS Subway - 25,400
3. Lakeshore West Express Rail - 23,000
4. Brampton Express Rail (Georgetown GO line to Brampton) - 19,800
5. Richmond Hill Express Rail - 18,100
6. Downtown Core subway line - 17,500
7. Mississauga Express Rail (Milton GO line to Cooksville) - 17,000
8. BD Subway - 16,400
9. Yonge Subway extension to Richmond Hill - 8,800
10. Barrie GO Train (full service to Bradford) - 8,700
11. Eglinton LRT - 7,800
12. Crosstown GO (Milton line from Dundas West station to Summerhill Station) - 7,500

So not 2nd, but quite a respectable showing. In terms of densities, it looks like 3rd to me, after YUS and Downtown Core Line.

 

[M II A II R II K]

If feasible additional stations could be added with sidetracks so not all trains have to stop at them. And with a fare system there could be two separate metropasses such as a cheaper one that doesn't include the GO System and a more expensive one to include it.

 

[Dan416]

I don't understand how Lakeshore East can beat Lakeshore West. Or how Richmnd Hill can beat Mississauga (or BD for that matter). Is it just me or do these numbers seem rather strange.

 

[superman]

I don't understand how Lakeshore East can beat Lakeshore West. Or how Richmnd Hill can beat Mississauga (or BD for that matter). Is it just me or do these numbers seem rather strange.

The Mississauga numbers are split into two line it appears - the express rail and the crosstown line.

 

[nfitz]

I don't understand how Lakeshore East can beat Lakeshore West. Or how Richmnd Hill can beat Mississauga (or BD for that matter). Is it just me or do these numbers seem rather strange.

The reason could be, is that when you look at the entire network, the load from the west, get's distributed over 3 different Express Rail routes, while in the east and noth there is just the one. Though I'd think the error on any of these would be easily 10% to 20% - but it certainly gives a flavour for the magnitudes involved.

Also, it appears that the model shows a lot of people not travelling all the way to Union from Lakeshore West - perhaps getting off where Lakeshore West intersects the Downtown Core subway line.

Also note that while the Richmond Hill peak point (presumably approaching Union Station) exceeds anywhere on the BD line, the BD line travel is very well distributed, with many people travelling a short distance, and few travelling the entire route. So the AM Peak Hour boardings on the BD line are 70,000 compared to only 19,600 on the Richmond Hill Express Rail. And the annual riders per year on the BD is 143.5 million compared to only 31.9 on Richmond Hill.

Ranking by AM Peak Hour Boardings you get:

1. YUS Subway - 106,100
2. BD Subway - 70,000
3. Downtown Core subway line - 57,100
4. Lakeshore West Express Rail - 53,500
5. Brampton Express Rail - 38,100
6. Lakeshore East Express Rail - 34,100
7. Eglinton LRT - 30,700
8. Hurontario LRT - 27,400
9. Mississauga Express Rail - 25,800
10. Richmond Hill Express Rail - 19,600
11. Don Mills LRT - 19,200
12. Highway 407 BRT - 16,300
13. Viva Highway 7 - 16,100
14. Scarborough RT - 15,300
15. Waterfront West LRT - 14,200

Now I bet that's more the order you were expecting.

 

[TOareaFan]

So not 2nd, but quite a respectable showing. In terms of densities, it looks like 3rd to me, after YUS and Downtown Core Line.

Thanks, I just recalled the density number being surprisingly high......so, third overall but #1 of the GO lines so makes a bit of sense that it would be near/at the top of the electrification priority list (to bring it back to topic)?

 

[nfitz]

Yes, I'd think it would ... though Richmond Hill, Brampton,and Mississauga all are about the same. Brampton does double duty with the Airport Rail Link though ... and Lakeshore clearly will continue to move a lot of people. All 5 really should be done.

 

[Dan416]

The reason could be, is that when you look at the entire network, the load from the west, get's distributed over 3 different Express Rail routes, while in the east and noth there is just the one. Though I'd think the error on any of these would be easily 10% to 20% - but it certainly gives a flavour for the magnitudes involved.

Also, it appears that the model shows a lot of people not travelling all the way to Union from Lakeshore West - perhaps getting off where Lakeshore West intersects the Downtown Core subway line.

Also note that while the Richmond Hill peak point (presumably approaching Union Station) exceeds anywhere on the BD line, the BD line travel is very well distributed, with many people travelling a short distance, and few travelling the entire route. So the AM Peak Hour boardings on the BD line are 70,000 compared to only 19,600 on the Richmond Hill Express Rail. And the annual riders per year on the BD is 143.5 million compared to only 31.9 on Richmond Hill.

Ranking by AM Peak Hour Boardings you get:

1. YUS Subway - 106,100
2. BD Subway - 70,000
3. Downtown Core subway line - 57,100
4. Lakeshore West Express Rail - 53,500
5. Brampton Express Rail - 38,100
6. Lakeshore East Express Rail - 34,100
7. Eglinton LRT - 30,700
8. Hurontario LRT - 27,400
9. Mississauga Express Rail - 25,800
10. Richmond Hill Express Rail - 19,600
11. Don Mills LRT - 19,200
12. Highway 407 BRT - 16,300
13. Viva Highway 7 - 16,100
14. Scarborough RT - 15,300
15. Waterfront West LRT - 14,200

Now I bet that's more the order you were expecting.

Thanks for the explanation. Those numbers make more sense to me.

 

[yyzhyd]

In terms of hard numbers, if you look at AM Peak Hour, Peak point riders in the Big Move 25-year plan (presumably 2034), the biggest 12 projects are:

1. Lakeshore East - 26,300
2. YUS Subway - 25,400
3. Lakeshore West Express Rail - 23,000
4. Brampton Express Rail (Georgetown GO line to Brampton) - 19,800
5. Richmond Hill Express Rail - 18,100
6. Downtown Core subway line - 17,500
7. Mississauga Express Rail (Milton GO line to Cooksville) - 17,000
8. BD Subway - 16,400
9. Yonge Subway extension to Richmond Hill - 8,800
10. Barrie GO Train (full service to Bradford) - 8,700
11. Eglinton LRT - 7,800
12. Crosstown GO (Milton line from Dundas West station to Summerhill Station) - 7,500

So not 2nd, but quite a respectable showing. In terms of densities, it looks like 3rd to me, after YUS and Downtown Core Line.

Shocked that Stouffville GO is missing from that list!

 

[nfitz]

Shocked that Stouffville GO is missing from that list!

It was 3,100. AM Peak Hour boardings was only 3,600. Yes, does seem a little low, lower than many other non-Express Rail GO services ... given the integration at Kennedy, I'm surprised it doesn't carry a lot more traffic between Kennedy and Union.

 

[gweed123]

The reason could be, is that when you look at the entire network, the load from the west, get's distributed over 3 different Express Rail routes, while in the east and noth there is just the one. Though I'd think the error on any of these would be easily 10% to 20% - but it certainly gives a flavour for the magnitudes involved.

Also, it appears that the model shows a lot of people not travelling all the way to Union from Lakeshore West - perhaps getting off where Lakeshore West intersects the Downtown Core subway line.

Also note that while the Richmond Hill peak point (presumably approaching Union Station) exceeds anywhere on the BD line, the BD line travel is very well distributed, with many people travelling a short distance, and few travelling the entire route. So the AM Peak Hour boardings on the BD line are 70,000 compared to only 19,600 on the Richmond Hill Express Rail. And the annual riders per year on the BD is 143.5 million compared to only 31.9 on Richmond Hill.

Ranking by AM Peak Hour Boardings you get:

1. YUS Subway - 106,100
2. BD Subway - 70,000
3. Downtown Core subway line - 57,100
4. Lakeshore West Express Rail - 53,500
5. Brampton Express Rail - 38,100
6. Lakeshore East Express Rail - 34,100
7. Eglinton LRT - 30,700
8. Hurontario LRT - 27,400
9. Mississauga Express Rail - 25,800
10. Richmond Hill Express Rail - 19,600
11. Don Mills LRT - 19,200
12. Highway 407 BRT - 16,300
13. Viva Highway 7 - 16,100
14. Scarborough RT - 15,300
15. Waterfront West LRT - 14,200

Now I bet that's more the order you were expecting.

Interesting that the only item on that list not shown on the 15 year plan is #3 on the list. Mixed up priorities much? (Note: Mississauga Express Rail and Richmond Hill Express Rail are only shown as local rail in the 15 year plan, but they are still at least shown).

 

[nfitz]

Interesting that the only item on that list not shown on the 15 year plan is #3 on the list. Mixed up priorities much? (Note: Mississauga Express Rail and Richmond Hill Express Rail are only shown as local rail in the 15 year plan, but they are still at least shown).

Quite interesting. Also interesting how high the Don Mills compared to the funded projects on Finch West and Sheppard East. Though I expect the peak point is between Eglinton and Danforth which might be better served by extending the Downtown Line north to Eglinton, given they'd likely have to tunnel/bridge about 50% of the way anyways.

 

[gweed123]

Quite interesting. Also interesting how high the Don Mills compared to the funded projects on Finch West and Sheppard East. Though I expect the peak point is between Eglinton and Danforth which might be better served by extending the Downtown Line north to Eglinton, given they'd likely have to tunnel/bridge about 50% of the way anyways.

Yeah, I think the section south of Eglinton kinda skewed that number to make it look more used than it would be if it was only north of Eglinton. And I agree, it makes very little sense to build a 50+% tunnelled/bridged LRT along a route that clearly has subway-level demand, and that would end up being a linear transfer onto a subway. It's like the Sheppard Subway to LRT transfer, only worse, because it would see 3x the number of people transfering at it to keep going the exact same direction. I have no problem with it being LRT north of Eglinton (although I think BRT in the short term would be a better solution), but don't try and shoe-horn an LRT into the stretch of a corridor that should clearly be subway.

Going back to the DRL though, I wonder if now that the TTC is being forced to be less pro-LRT, and coupled with the near completion of the DRTES, if the DRL will quietly make its way up into the 15 year plan in Metrolinx' updated RTP.

 

[nfitz]

And I agree, it makes very little sense to build a 50+% tunnelled/bridged LRT along a route that clearly has subway-level demand, and that would end up being a linear transfer onto a subway.

If it had subway-level demand, yes. But the Metrolinx peak-hour prediction is only 5,000; which is less than their prediction for the Scarborough RT, the Eglinton LRT, the Hurontario LRT, and even the Waterfront West LRT. So it may be hard to justify on strictly a demand basis.

Going back to the DRL though, I wonder if now that the TTC is being forced to be less pro-LRT, and coupled with the near completion of the DRTES, if the DRL will quietly make its way up into the 15 year plan in Metrolinx' updated RTP.

It's difficult to predict what's going to happen in the next 6 weeks, let alone the 15-year plan!

 

[gweed123]

If it had subway-level demand, yes. But the Metrolinx peak-hour prediction is only 5,000; which is less than their prediction for the Scarborough RT, the Eglinton LRT, the Hurontario LRT, and even the Waterfront West LRT. So it may be hard to justify on strictly a demand basis.

The outer portiosn of subway lines always have lower ridership numbers than the sections closer to the core. But yes, I agree, it may not be a slam dunk just by looking at the demand numbers. I think the case is a combination of network connectivity (or preventing network discontinuity), the projected ridership, and the relatively little cost differential there would be between the two options.

It's difficult to predict what's going to happen in the next 6 weeks, let alone the 15-year plan!

Good point, haha. However, once the new plan is released and adopted into the new RTP, and if the RTP manages to survive the next provincial election, then it's a pretty decent bet that the plan will unfold as proposed. You can't get much more anti-transit than Rob Ford, and you can't get much more unwilling to fund transit than the PCs. You can't go much further right than what those two are, and if the plan can survive them, it can certainly survive a swing back to the political left (when/if that does happen).