Candidates and their subway plans... The Star tells you which one is more credible

[Woodbridge_Heights]

Realistically, a Sheppard subway extension is not in the cards for the immediate future regardless. You may be able to push the ridership numbers to show subway-level demand, but is there a good business case for extending the line? Is travel along Sheppard so bad right now that a subway extension is absolutely critical?

It's not really something any politician would want to pin his star too, given the line's troubled reputation. (And, yes yes, I know, it's got great ridership compared to Chicago! It would be better if it had been finished!) The Sheppard LRT is an attempt to provide higher order transit service along this corridor and move on to other, more pressing, transit needs in the city.

People talk about Transit City being a political plan that's motivated by things other than ridership needs, but it's got nothing on the Sheppard subway and Mel Lastman's "A Subway in North York!" campaign when it comes to political baggage.

So what you're saying is that travel along sheppard is not bad enough to justify a subway extension but just bad enough to justify an LRT route????

If you don't mind, where do you stand on the Vaughan and RH subway extensions.

 

[Woodbridge_Heights]

My personal belief is totally irrelvant here. The facts are these:

1) The public overwhelmingly supports transit expansion
2) The public still doesn't really have a firm grasp on what "Transit City" entails, and probably never will because transit nerd stuff doesn't really interest a lot of people.
3) The public does know, however, thanks to some political maneuvering as of late that Transit City represents expanded transit that will happen in the near-term.
4) Anyone running against TC lines already under construction will come off as anti-transit.

The only way a candidate could still come off as pro-transit while trashing the Transit City lines would be to come out with a very detailed proposal for an alternative plan that is deemed realistic and workable. This is very difficult - if not impossible - to do.

FYI there's only one TC line that is currently under some form of construction. Your opinion totally matters because you believe that LRT is the only form of mass transit available.

The point was that Miller ran on a platform of terminating the Island airport bridge and he got elected and he canceled it. So it is not as far fetched as you make it out to be for a candidate to run on a platform of revising the TC plan.

Furthermore it would be silly for a candidate to propose cancelling TC in full (ironic since the RTES was scrapped) but would propose to build something that might better serve the residents of Toronto in the form of other types of mass transit (Bus, Subway, regional rail etc.).

 

[GraphicMatt]

I don't believe either are particularly high priority, but the Vaughan line is paid for and ready to go so I'm not going to kick up a fuss. The need for a RH line is surely dubious, but it looks like it will be an excellent bargaining chip in negotiations with the province about funding the DRL.

Transit is politics.

And, yes, that's what I'm saying about Sheppard. Why is that crazy? LRT is meant to be a technology for intermediate-capacity routes.

 

[Woodbridge_Heights]

I don't believe either are particularly high priority, but the Vaughan line is paid for and ready to go so I'm not going to kick up a fuss. The need for a RH line is surely dubious, but it looks like it will be an excellent bargaining chip in negotiations with the province about funding the DRL.

Transit is politics.

And, yes, that's what I'm saying about Sheppard. Why is that crazy? LRT is meant to be a technology for intermediate-capacity routes.

That's fine, so you're basicaly the status quo guy. Give us transit any transit just give us transit is your mantra without any questioning about the need/demand/or politics in the building of that transit.

Personally I highly doubt that the Vaughan extension will reach subway capacity in the next half century which is why I supported a plan for building the subway to York (or Steeles) and going the rest of the way with an LRT. The LRT would have served more of Vaughan and served it better than a 1 or 2 station stub on the YUS line. But now your going to call me a 905/416 classist so whatever. What the Sheppard corridor has that Vaughan does not is 3 established ridership generators with one more on the way.

chocolate and vanilla are there for a reason right everyone has their favorite.

 

[Justin10000]

You realise the RTP has gone through at least six major interations since Metrolinx was formed? Their goal is to have a plan that covers everything, as things change, they change the plan (for example the delay and phasing to TC). There are two main factors that change the RTP, the supply of funding and the identification of specific needs.

Three years, no provincial elections, and a new board of directors isn't enough time to judge what Metrolinx is capable of achieving. I'd wait until 2013 until saying if they are flexible or not.

I should have made it a litle clearer. I know plans can change, and I have kept track of the revisions. What I am sayng is, I do not believe it's likely Metrolinx will want to cancel projects that are funded, and ready for construction, just because the new mayor of Toronto has a new plan. If Metrolinx were going to cancel the projects in the 5 in 10 plan, it's going to be at the provincial level.
But I just do not see the 5 projects under, or nearing construction being cancelled.

 

[gweed123]

I should have made it a litle clearer. I know plans can change, and I have kept track of the revisions. What I am sayng is, I do not believe it's likely Metrolinx will want to cancel projects that are funded, and ready for construction, just because the new mayor of Toronto has a new plan. If Metrolinx were going to cancel the projects in the 5 in 10 plan, it's going to be at the provincial level.
But I just do not see the 5 projects under, or nearing construction being cancelled.

A change in leadership at any level can put the brakes on nearly any project, no matter how far along it is. The Ottawa LRT v1 is an example of a municipal change. The Eglinton West subway is an example of provincial change. Heck, even the Sheppard subway, which was much further along than the SELRT is now, was drastically reduced. I'm not saying that it WILL happen, I'm just saying, history has taught us that it CAN happen. If history has taught us anything, it's that nothing is a done deal until the project has reached a point where it is significantly underway. Until a project is firmly in the ground, anything can happen. Allocated funding and tendered contracts are just paperwork, and early analysis work is just a few small holes in the ground. Until they start ripping up the street, the project is fair game for the chopping block in the eyes of the politicians.

 

[nfitz]

Estimated ridership is what, 25k/day? In a city of 2.5 million people, that's 1% of the population. Hence 99% of the city will NOT be using it.

What a bizarre comment. The Queen streetcars are only 50k/day ... so 98% of the city doesn't use it. So should we eliminate it? Perhaps we should eliminate the SRT, it only carries 44k/day ... 98% don't use it. Heck, the Bloor-Danforth subway only cares 480,000 per day. 80% don't use it ... actually probably 90% as most people who do use it, would use it twice a day.

And where did you get 25k/day? The existing Sheppard East and Scarborough Rocket buses are over 36k already. Looking at the information in the EA, it looks closer to 50k.

 

[nfitz]

I'm glad I live in Ottawa now, we have a transit plan that actually make sense ...

ROTFLMAO! Yeah, the same LRT tunnel and plan pretty much they had when I lived there in the 1980s. You'd have told me back then that over 2 decades later, that they will would be running buses through downtown, and I'd have thought you were from Pluto.

 

[nfitz]

The one guy who openly supports it has a great shot in winning the election and based on the other weak candidates, Pantalone will most likely win the whole thing in October!

Pantalone winning ... wow, are you trying to hit negative credibility or something? Has Pantalone even expressed any thoughts in this campaign other than keep doing what greater men already started?

 

[nfitz]

I do think there's certainly a chance Transit City could get cancelled and nothing built. The truly unlikely scenario some people here seem to be banking on is that TC lines get canceled, everyone agrees on a subway-based alternative and that plan goes forward quickly and with no funding issues.

To put it more simply:

LIKELY: The TC projects close to or under construction get built (Sheppard, Eglinton, Finch, Scarborough) with perhaps some minor modifications.

POSSIBLE: TC is canceled. We get five or ten more years of studies and research. Maybe a shovel hits the ground for something in 2020.

UNLIKELY: TC is canceled. The new mayor goes "Let's just adopt this plan I found on the internet calling for more subways!" The province says "Here is some cash!" The people across Toronto say "Yay!" The projects start next year.

I've been wading through about 14 pages of comments in the 3 or 4 days since I last read this thread (my gosh, don't you guys know the World Cup is on?). And this is the first sensible post I've seen so far ... about 12 pages in.

 

[rbt]

A change in leadership at any level can put the brakes on nearly any project, no matter how far along it is. The Ottawa LRT v1 is an example of a municipal change. The Eglinton West subway is an example of provincial change. Heck, even the Sheppard subway, which was much further along than the SELRT is now, was drastically reduced. I'm not saying that it WILL happen, I'm just saying, history has taught us that it CAN happen. If history has taught us anything, it's that nothing is a done deal until the project has reached a point where it is significantly underway. Until a project is firmly in the ground, anything can happen. Allocated funding and tendered contracts are just paperwork, and early analysis work is just a few small holes in the ground. Until they start ripping up the street, the project is fair game for the chopping block in the eyes of the politicians.

IIRC, the funds for Spadina are in a non-revocable trust or something similar making it difficult for the province/feds to grab those funds back.

How are the funds for Sheppard being kept as it is both Federal and Provincial funding?

Eglinton is by far the easiest to cancel funding for; and the most lucrative. Dump Eglinton and run LRT along Highway 7 instead; put the other $3B against the debt.

 

[nfitz]

What? You haven't discovered PVR yet?

Why do you say that? I've PVRed every game from this world cup; and many from the last one. Not sure how one watches TV without a PVR ... had one since Rogers introduced them ... what, 2003? I think I'm on my 3rd now.

Juan_Lennon416 and Justin0000000000 are your side's Fresh_Start and LaZ. Enjoy.

Side? I'm not supporting Pantalone. Though I see your point - all 4 have made some very unsupported claims - though only one seems to think it is performance art.

 

[cacruden]

I would prefer the following be done, which I believe would give Toronto a better opportunity to have new lines built.

Implement entry/exit system like most of the rest of the world. Charge by distance - the further you travel on the subway, the more you pay (also used by a lot of the world). Although all the current lines are publicly owned, it would allow individual lines (future) to set there own prices, and allow the proper proportion of revenue to go to each line.

This then allows for a wider set of options for new lines to be considered, and will encourage private business to lobby/bid for new lines. The lines would more likely selected based on actually potential revenue and not some politicians whims on where they want the system extended to (i.e. their own riding).

Now if a private business thought it would good business sense (whether partially subsidized or not), they could lobby - make a proposal on lines - and the government could put out to tender the potential new lines.

All options on funding should be on the table, private, public, naming rights, property development - anything that can make a line worth building.

The way things are going Bangkok Thailand will end up having high-speed rail (talked about at government level), and more subway/skytrain lines than Toronto will have. That just makes Toronto look silly

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Really?


Anyway. We have to do something NOW!!

 

[Juan_Lennon416]

I'm not supporting Pantalone

And who are you voting for?