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Toronto Police Service Reformation

Police carding should be banned in Ontario, independent review says

After a recording breaking year for homicides, this judge winds up looking like a complete idiot.

That's incredibly lazy reasoning. Correlation is not causation. We've had record breaking gun/gang crime years when carding was still in place, and there's absolutely zero reason to believe the lack of it had anything to do with the spike last year. We already know the gun problem is cyclical, and last year fits within the same pattern.
 
Police carding should be banned in Ontario, independent review says

After a recording breaking year for homicides, this judge winds up looking like a complete idiot.

There is no logic whatever to your statement.

First off, the murder/homicide rate is not at a record high, even when the 'van attack' is included.

Toronto's record for homicides was 1991, when there were 89 homicides; at a time when the population was 2.2 million. That indicates a homicide rate of slightly over 4 per 100,000

By contrast, 2018 will show a rate of 3.5 as the larger number of homicides is against a population of 2.8 million.

The Van attack being a complete outlier, and one that would not have been addressed in any way by carding, let's remove it from the numbers.

That reduces the homicide rate to 3.1 per 100,000

There is one further anomaly for this year, and that is the serial killer's numbers, most or all of which pre-date the current year, but which show up as homicides on this year's books, because they were discovered this year and charges laid this year.

Remove those and you get a homicide rate of 2.9.

That's still high by recent Toronto standards, but not near as staggering as the numbers seem at first blush.

Moreover, the remaining homicides are largely the result of gang conflict, and there is no material evidence to suggest that carding would any way suppress turf wars or revenge killings

That is not to suggest there is no value in carding, ever.

However, the value is often limited, if any, and rarely bares on the homicide rate.

This must be balanced against the social ill of over policiing and harassing certain groups and individuals in our city, based on race, geography and social-economic status.

It is an entirely reasonable conclusion that the social ill is greater than any marginal benefit.

You have been asked repeatedly to put thought into your posts; that might mean something as simple as reading an entire article, rather than just the headline; or questioning some of your knee-jerk assumptions.

I will ask again, please put in the work before making extreme statements that only serve to marginalize you as a poster.
 
Here is a list of homicides in Toronto in 2018.
https://homicidecanada.com/toronto-homicide-victim-list-2018/

Here is the list of alleged victims of Bruce McArthur
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010–2017_Toronto_serial_homicides

You will note that all the charges were laid in 2018, but since the homicides occurred in previous years, not a single name appears on the list of 2018 homicides. I am not sure if police update the homicide numbers from the previous years, but they should. The police website doesn't list names, so it is difficult to tell.
https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJr...jNDMtNDc0Yy04ZmI0LTBmNDA5NWFlOGQ1ZCIsImMiOjN9

What I do note, is that Selim Esen and Andrew Kinsman were listed as a 2017 homicide (charges laid in January 18, 2018) - and they show up in the list of 2017 homicides (but this isn't the official police site). https://homicidecanada.com/toronto-homicide-victim-list-2017/ . A third person, Dean Lisowick, was not reported missing. He was last seen in 2016, but his date of murder was not yet confirmed. He showed up on the 2017 list. https://homicidecanada.com/bruce-mc...ontinues-into-torontos-alleged-serial-killer/ . This likely confirms that the proper way to record statistics is to attribute the crime to the year it occurred.
 
Thing is North you are missing out on the dozens of more murders that happen in the burbs. Peel had more murder then 2017 by July this year.

I dont think this is a blip, GTA has massive poverty, marginalized communities and a police force that can only do reactive policing anymore and leaders who are less concerned about fixing the issue and being just politically correct.

I am unsure carding will fix things but my cousin who is a cop says that the police is simply not interested in proactive policing anymore as the community does not want it and this is the consquecnce.
 
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Here is a list of homicides in Toronto in 2018.
https://homicidecanada.com/toronto-homicide-victim-list-2018/

Here is the list of alleged victims of Bruce McArthur
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010–2017_Toronto_serial_homicides

You will note that all the charges were laid in 2018, but since the homicides occurred in previous years, not a single name appears on the list of 2018 homicides. I am not sure if police update the homicide numbers from the previous years, but they should. The police website doesn't list names, so it is difficult to tell.
https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJr...jNDMtNDc0Yy04ZmI0LTBmNDA5NWFlOGQ1ZCIsImMiOjN9

What I do note, is that Selim Esen and Andrew Kinsman were listed as a 2017 homicide (charges laid in January 18, 2018) - and they show up in the list of 2017 homicides (but this isn't the official police site). https://homicidecanada.com/toronto-homicide-victim-list-2017/ . A third person, Dean Lisowick, was not reported missing. He was last seen in 2016, but his date of murder was not yet confirmed. He showed up on the 2017 list. https://homicidecanada.com/bruce-mc...ontinues-into-torontos-alleged-serial-killer/ . This likely confirms that the proper way to record statistics is to attribute the crime to the year it occurred.

There is merit in what you are saying but one problem is that back-reporting a death to the year it occurred makes annual statistics always conditional. Every now and again, police will solve/close a death that occurred 10, 15, 20 years ago. Trying to report the data to the year of occurrence would be quite combersome and ultimately meaningless, even more so if the death was not considered culpable at the time.
Under normal circumstances, out-of-year numbers are sufficiently low to not skew the overall data. It can be argued that the in-year numbers of the 'Yonge St. van attack' has more impact on the overall numbers in terms of police/social/community response to homicides in the city. The numbers traditionally reported to the public are high-level numbers; the more detailed data reported to Statistics Canada (and I assume held by the police service) have sufficient detail attached to fully explain them.
 
i think the issue is what happens in 2019, if its July 2019 and we are pacing for 80-100 murders, we have a problem folks.
 
i think the issue is what happens in 2019, if its July 2019 and we are pacing for 80-100 murders, we have a problem folks.
Well the 3 highest homicide years in the past decade are the last 3. 75, 66, and 96. It would be nice to be in the low to mid 50's like we were not that long ago.
 
Thing is North you are missing out on the dozens of more murders that happen in the burbs. Peel had more murder then 2017 by July this year.

I dont think this is a blip, GTA has massive poverty, marginalized communities and a police force that can only do reactive policing anymore and leaders who are less concerned about fixing the issue and being just politically correct.

I am unsure carding will fix things but my cousin who is a cop says that the police is simply not interested in proactive policing anymore as the community does not want it and this is the consquecnce.

I'm not missing that there was an upswing in gang violence across the GTA in 2018.

I am also unclear on how that relates to carding, something even you concede you have no evidence would make an iota of difference.

Poverty is not resolved by carding. Demographics (number of men of crime-committing age (14-29 for the most part), is also not affected by carding.

Carding does not change the number of weapons on the street or access to them.

I think your cousin, to be charitable, is misreading the public mood; and is also making an excuse for police and government inaction.

People are plenty happy to support thoughtful investigation into gangs or weapons smuggling.

I haven't heard of protests against analytics or deep-dives on data either.

Nor an opposition to better gun control etc.

What people object to is any 'arbitrary' stop by police.

That's perfectly reasonable.

Never mind politically correct. If police stopped me to ask questions or take my name more than once in a decade (and maybe even once) without just cause.........they might expect me to raise something of a fuss.

Of course, it has never happened to me, even once.

But there are people in our region it happens to with some regularity and little or no evidence of 'just cause'; or for that matter even any utility.

I'm content to debate the virtues of various policing strategies at some length. There is a reasonable basis to discuss alternate strategies and options.

I am not content, however, to see a poster here call a judge, an author of a 300 page report an idiot, because he (the poster) disagrees with the report's thesis.

All the more so, when said poster is regularly guilty of posting thoughts without citation, or any evidentiary basis; and would appear not to have read the report he is criticizing.
 
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i think the issue is what happens in 2019, if its July 2019 and we are pacing for 80-100 murders, we have a problem folks.

Fair that we may well have a problem.

But I don't think there is any reason to believe carding is the solution, or any meaningful part thereof.

Let's tackle the issue logically.

Where are new gang members being recruited from? Lets target those schools and communities with a mix of quality programs, targeting young men, and offering supervision, recreation, mentorship and opportunity.

Let's equally target the problem gangs, the ones that are being violent in a more public fashion that endangers or scares the community at large. Make life less pleasant for them and make clear that this level of violence is bad for business.

Let's also tackle the issue of guns, particularly straw-man purchases, but also cross-border smuggling, legal-owners who have been stolen from more than once.

Poverty-reduction, job opportunity, education are key in the medium and long-term; while selective, targeted enforcement rather than a wide net affecting whole communities is the way to go in the shorter-term.
 
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Good thing we just voted in a provincial government that has already started to cut the types of programs that helped keep kids out of gangs.
 
I'm not missing that there was an upswing in gang violence across the GTA in 2018.

I am also unclear on how that relates to carding, something even you concede you have no evidence would make an iota of difference.

Poverty is not resolved by carding. Demographics (number of men of crime-committing age (14-29 for the most part), is also not affected by carding.

Carding does not change the number of weapons on the street or access to them.

I think your cousin, to be charitable, is misreading the public mood; and is also making an excuse for police and government inaction.

People are plenty happy to support thoughtful investigation into gangs or weapons smuggling.

I haven't of protests against analytics or deep-dives on data either.

Nor an opposition to better gun control etc.

What people object to is any 'arbitrary' stop by police.

That's perfectly reasonable.

Never mind politically correct. If police stopped me to ask questions or take my name more than once in a decade (and maybe even once) without just cause.........they might expect me to raise something of a fuss.

Of course, it has never happened to me, even once.

But there are people in our region it happens to with some regularity and little or no evidence of 'just cause'; or for that matter even any utility.

I'm content to debate the virtues of various policing strategies at some length. There is a reasonable basis to discuss alternate strategies and options.

I am not content, however, to see a poster here call a judge, an author of a 300 page report an idiot, because he (the poster) disagrees with the report's thesis.

All the more so, when said poster is regularly guilty of posting thoughts without citation, or any evidentiary basis; and would appear not to have read the report he is criticizing.

As I said frankly the police and community relations in Toronto have gone down the drain and the police are mostly at fault.

There are a lot of issues to solve on the community level but due to either poor decisive leadership, the police force in Toronto according to him is rather demotivated and is just a reactive entity.


So yes we can simply say "fuck the police do your jobs' but I feel that the seeds are being sowed for a big problem for Toronto and the local area.
 
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i think the issue is what happens in 2019, if its July 2019 and we are pacing for 80-100 murders, we have a problem folks.
80-100 murders in a city of nearly 3 million isn't a problem. When you factor out the gangsta-on-gangsta killings and statistical aberrations like the 10 killed in the van attack; to the regular, law-abiding Torontonian, this city does not have a murder problem. If you're not involved in gangs, drugs or violent crime, your only remotely likely risk of being murdered is through domestic violence (by your spouse, partner, parent, etc).

And, provided no bystanders are killed, do we really care if the gangstas kill each other? And as for the police, their job is not crime prevention, it's enforcement. It's the justice system, not the police that is failing Torontonians, by releasing the violent gang members after each arrest. How can witnesses safely give testimony to police when they know the perp. will be out shortly looking for revenge? Anyone convicted of a gun crime should do hard time and anyone not born here (like me, arrived at age 5) should have their citizenship or landed status revoked and be deported.
 
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80-100 murders in a city of nearly 3 million isn't a problem. When you factor out the gangsta-on-gangsta killings and statistical aberrations like the 10 killed in the van attack; to the regular, law-abiding Torontonian, this city does not have a murder problem. If you're not involved in gangs, drugs or violent crime, your only remotely likely risk of being murdered is through domestic violence (by your spouse, partner, parent, etc).

And, provided no bystanders are killed, do we really care if the gangstas kill each other? And as for the police, their job is not crime prevention, it's enforcement. It's the justice system, not the police that is failing Torontonians, by releasing the violent gang members after each arrest. How can witnesses safely give testimony to police when they know the perp. will be out shortly looking for revenge? Anyone convicted of a gun crime should do hard time and anyone not born here (like me, arrived at age 5) should have their citizenship or landed status revoked and be deported.


How about we have an honest discussion on this forum and just pretty much say its black killing blacks who gives a shit?

That is what it comes down to it seems sadly?
 
How about we have an honest discussion on this forum and just pretty much say its black killing blacks who gives a shit?

That is what it comes down to it seems sadly?

In fairness to @Admiral Beez that's quite a read-in there.

He certainly didn't say that explicitly and I think that's a pretty brutal implication.

I don't mind if you take issue w/the Admiral, I don't agree with everything he said.

But I think it would serve the debate well not to infer in others the worst, without supporting evidence to that effect.

What he and others, myself included have said is that the murder level has not reached nor is at the tipping point to become a 'crisis'.

Its a matter of concern. Yes, as a community we should contemplate actions that might help reduce this, my suggestions having been outlined in a previous post.

I happened to feel the evidence does not support carding; and that heavy-handed policing is unlikely to be productive either.

That doesn't mean don't care or do nothing.
 
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