News   Jul 19, 2024
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Sheppard Line 4 Subway Extension (Proposed)

If there has ever been a ridership study that demonstrates a Sheppard subway will have sufficient ridership, especially enough to make it a full-fledged subway, then it must be the most closely guarded secret ever.
Has there been one that shows it wouldn't be?
 
If there has ever been a ridership study that demonstrates a Sheppard subway will have sufficient ridership, especially enough to make it a full-fledged subway, then it must be the most closely guarded secret ever.
And yet, there are more than one that have said it wouldn't be!
 
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You are the one arguing that this would be a good project, so the onus is on you to provide some evidence that it would be.
1) Connection to both sides of line 1, turning ShW into a bigger transit hub / interchange point.
2) Connection to line 2 at McC or STC, same thing.

Bet line 2 wouldn't have been very popular either if it only ran from, say, Yonge to Pape. Sure, maybe still more so than the current line 4, but still little more than a stub.

Oh and line 6 would make a hell of a lot more sense if it didn't stub off of line 1 like line 4 does, but also tied both sides of line 1 together.
 
Bet line 2 wouldn't have been very popular either if it only ran from, say, Yonge to Pape. Sure, maybe still more so than the current line 4, but still little more than a stub.
In 1960, Bloor ran 2 car MU trains on a 2:30 headway, and additional service was provided east of Church street by the Danforth tripper that ran every 4 minutes.

I don't quite get the feeling that service on Sheppard Avenue is on the same level... hard to take seriously the idea that we gotta urgently spend billions of taxpayer dollars to convert a route which doesn't even use artics on its base services (84 and 85) to subway. If this was so badly needed, you'd think that artics would be prioritized for all the Sheppard services, instead of merely the express. 🤔
 
I’m somewhat shocked people are calling for a return to the LRT plan, and making this out to be some massively ridiculous idea to build the full Sheppard Subway from Sheppard W to McCowan/STC.

I’ll chalk up the lack of existing demand east of VP to the suburban character- rather, it is hard to gauge what demand really is for such a large distance when no bus can traverse it quickly. There will also be Line 2 and the Stouffville GO line to interchange with. Furthermore, It’s also not about just Sheppard E; a subway will pull people from Steeles, Finch and Ellesmere- how busy are those corridors?

And, failing all that, I will say this: is it really so bad we build in advance for once in this damn city? Anyone who says we overbuilt it already neglect that we only did so for the fraction we actually constructed. Meanwhile, there is no doubt demand between the two ends of a complete Line 4 will grow steadily if there are connections at both.

Perhaps the extension should not be tunnelled. But is there really a better subway project to prioritize besides extending L4 west, or the Ontario Line north?
 
I’m somewhat shocked people are calling for a return to the LRT plan, and making this out to be some massively ridiculous idea to build the full Sheppard Subway from Sheppard W to McCowan/STC.

I’ll chalk up the lack of existing demand east of VP to the suburban character- rather, it is hard to gauge what demand really is for such a large distance when no bus can traverse it quickly. There will also be Line 2 and the Stouffville GO line to interchange with. Furthermore, It’s also not about just Sheppard E; a subway will pull people from Steeles, Finch and Ellesmere- how busy are those corridors?

And, failing all that, I will say this: is it really so bad we build in advance for once in this damn city? Anyone who says we overbuilt it already neglect that we only did so for the fraction we actually constructed. Meanwhile, there is no doubt demand between the two ends of a complete Line 4 will grow steadily if there are connections at both.

Perhaps the extension should not be tunnelled. But is there really a better subway project to prioritize besides extending L4 west, or the Ontario Line north?
I feel the problem is that there is so much demand that everyone wants it all as fast as possible. They think if we go with the cheapest option that it will be the fastest.
 
In 1960, Bloor ran 2 car MU trains on a 2:30 headway, and additional service was provided east of Church street by the Danforth tripper that ran every 4 minutes.

I don't quite get the feeling that service on Sheppard Avenue is on the same level... hard to take seriously the idea that we gotta urgently spend billions of taxpayer dollars to convert a route which doesn't even use artics on its base services (84 and 85) to subway. If this was so badly needed, you'd think that artics would be prioritized for all the Sheppard services, instead of merely the express. 🤔
There is another way of interpreting this.
The express service sort of mirrors the proposed subway extension - stopping pattern. Express service getting the articulated buses means there is more demand for limited stops service along the corridor.
Part of the argument for LRT tech. along this corridor was to provide enhanced local service. So the observation actually favours the opinion that a grade-separated metro service is ideal for this corridor.
 
The moment this line gets extended, 1000s condos along the line will be built & ridership will increase. Expanding transit should be about capturing new riders, connecting areas/lines all things this line would do...
Except there are already condos sprouting on Sheppard - what an extended subway will do via MTSAs (assuming as I hope that this becomes embedded in our planning rather than abandoned as politically inconvenient) that an express bus doesn’t is push those condos deeper into the surrounding yellowbelt. The yellowbelt residents of North York thought Lastman was getting them a subway other people would pay for without consequences to their lifestyle off Sheppard. For an extension, yellowbelters east of 404 will know what’s coming. Given the bluer political mix north of Eglinton, more heed will be paid to their concerns than say people impacted by Ontario Line construction
 
The moment this line gets extended, 1000s condos along the line will be built & ridership will increase. Expanding transit should be about capturing new riders, connecting areas/lines all things this line would do...

That would go a long way to fixing housing in the area.Picture every station between Sheppard West and the future stop at McCowan having TOD within 500m of the stations. That would be great.

Except there are already condos sprouting on Sheppard - what an extended subway will do via MTSAs (assuming as I hope that this becomes embedded in our planning rather than abandoned as politically inconvenient) that an express bus doesn’t is push those condos deeper into the surrounding yellowbelt. The yellowbelt residents of North York thought Lastman was getting them a subway other people would pay for without consequences to their lifestyle off Sheppard. For an extension, yellowbelters east of 404 will know what’s coming. Given the bluer political mix north of Eglinton, more heed will be paid to their concerns than say people impacted by Ontario Line construction
Ah yes, the NIMBY crowd.They want the finer things, but not the consequences of those finer things. I am not suggesting we tear up the subdivisions, but at the corner of each major street, having condos would not be the destruction of their community.
 
I feel the problem is that there is so much demand that everyone wants it all as fast as possible. They think if we go with the cheapest option that it will be the fastest.
This is true to an extent- there are lots of different things that need to be built because we haven’t kept up with infrastructure demand. I empathize with the argument that there is limited time and money; it is worth asking if Sheppard E needs to be prioritized right now. I would not encourage Sheppard E/W over the OL, Milton GO Exp, or any other high-return project for instance. But frankly, this is competing with the likes of Eg East, not those…

Discussing this extension now also means it won’t start until 2030, when other projects are wrapping up- it’s current demand is not reflective of the environment it will be in. Simply considering network effects alone make it clear this specific project might be crucial by 2040. Same wrt to choosing LRT; do we really believe there won’t be enough E/W demand from every line north of Sheppard? Lines 2 and 5 will be enough? I’m not sold.

Remember everyone, transit is a chicken-and-egg problem; sometimes it’s hard to gauge latent demand with ridership data alone. Sometimes, economic development and ridership don’t come because we didn’t provide a link- it’s not always about providing a link to support a status quo.
 
This is true to an extent- there are lots of different things that need to be built because we haven’t kept up with infrastructure demand. I empathize with the argument that there is limited time and money; it is worth asking if Sheppard E needs to be prioritized right now. I would not encourage Sheppard E/W over the OL, Milton GO Exp, or any other high-return project for instance. But frankly, this is competing with the likes of Eg East, not those…

Discussing this extension now also means it won’t start until 2030, when other projects are wrapping up- it’s current demand is not reflective of the environment it will be in. Simply considering network effects alone make it clear this specific project might be crucial by 2040. Same wrt to choosing LRT; do we really believe there won’t be enough E/W demand from every line north of Sheppard? Lines 2 and 5 will be enough? I’m not sold.

Remember everyone, transit is a chicken-and-egg problem; sometimes it’s hard to gauge latent demand with ridership data alone. Sometimes, economic development and ridership don’t come because we didn’t provide a link- it’s not always about providing a link to support a status quo.
Locally,many may want this line extended whether it be a subway or LRT sooner than later, but, like you, I do feel this line will not be an immediate priority any time soon. Once the existing work is done on Line 2 and the OL has reached Sheppard, extending the Sheppard line would then be a priority. The 2040s does sound more realistic.
 
The moment this line gets extended, 1000s condos along the line will be built & ridership will increase. Expanding transit should be about capturing new riders, connecting areas/lines all things this line would do...
I think we all should know by now that it takes a lot more than the development immediately on the line to justify subway levels of throughput. You need feeder bus routes and a need to travel intermediate distances.
 

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