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Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (nCoV-2019)

Richard White said:
I'm expecting restrictions on gatherings shortly. Yes ICU admissions are low but nobody wants 2000 cases a day.
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It is probably still ok if it stays at 1K/d - but the European experience should teach us caution. The problem is probably going to be people letting their guards down during the holidays.

AoD
 
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AlvinofDiaspar said:
It is probably still ok if it stays at 1K/d - but the European experience should teach us caution. The problem is probably going to be people letting their guards down during the holidays.

AoD
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I'm a Site Admin in a Downtown Condo and agree with you 100%.

Our Party Room is open and people have been booking it constantly even though there is a $1000 dollar certified cheque as a deposit. My Gym is also fully booked on the regular.

People are itching to socialize and I see it daily.
 
Richard White said:
Like I said just watch. There will be a 2 week emergency brake for the Christmas holidays.

I can't see them keeping capacity limits at the same levels if cases keep rising. At this rate we will be at 2000 cases by January.
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You need to look at numbers in hospital. People being (only) sick at home does not really affect others, hospitals being overwhelmed was what caused the first lock-downs. So far, numbers in hospital are fairly flat. Will it last? We will see soon enough!
 
DSC said:
You need to look at numbers in hospital. People being (only) sick at home does not really affect others, hospitals being overwhelmed was what caused the first lock-downs. So far, numbers in hospital are fairly flat. Will it last? We will see soon enough!
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Honestly, do you think the average person knows the difference between case numbers and ICU admissions? The media only states the case numbers which have been over 1000 for the past few days.

That being said, people see high case numbers and think the sky is falling. Ontario could have 1 ICU admission but if 2000 people have cases.....
 
Richard White said:
Honestly, do you think the average person knows the difference between case numbers and ICU admissions? The media only states the case numbers which have been over 1000 for the past few days.

That being said, people see high case numbers and think the sky is falling. Ontario could have 1 ICU admission but if 2000 people have cases.....
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If there is a lock-down it will not be imposed by "the average person" so I fail to understand what the point of your post is. Yes, cases are clearly increasing and that may cause the average person to stay home and that may cause cases and hospitalizations to fall but the imposition of a legal lock down will only happen if the experts strongly recommend one as Doug Ford certainly does not want one, for reasons including the 2022 election.
 
Richard White said:
Honestly, do you think the average person knows the difference between case numbers and ICU admissions? The media only states the case numbers which have been over 1000 for the past few days.

That being said, people see high case numbers and think the sky is falling. Ontario could have 1 ICU admission but if 2000 people have cases.....
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We had a grand total of four ICU admissions today, and zero deaths.

The media failing to explain that the vaccines have made the dangerous numbers less dangers is on the media. But people demanding a lockdown without fully grokking what the numbers mean is on the people. We were told case numbers would rise, regardless. We were told this over and over again. Every talking head doctor put on news programs has said "we need to look at the hospitalizations and ICU admissions". If people didn't hear that, it's kinda on them. It means they aren't paying attention, or are doomscrolling conservative media. But I have the feeling the latter are a small, small number as you can't be afraid of what you believe is fake.

We can tighten some loopholes up, for sure, and better enforce the rules we have. But we also aren't (yet) seeing the effects of 5-11 vaccinations (even single dose) kick in, and they are a big portion of the unvaccinated cases now.

We were told repeatedly there'd be a seasonal uptick and we are seeing a seasonal uptick. But deaths and hospitalizations aren't growing at the same rate, and are flat in regards to the fully vaccinated.

And I hate to say it, but a lot of the "sky is falling" in this forum is coming from you. Whether you realize it or not, predicting higher numbers and tying it with lockdowns every other day is part of the problem. It dilutes the data with opinion, and just ends up being fear mongering.
Richard White said:
At this rate we may be heading back towards restrictions again unless things take a nosedive rather quickly. With winter and the Christmas Holidays coming up no doubt the numbers will pass 1000 daily in the near future.
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Richard White said:
Any bets on when we hit 4 digits again?
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Richard White said:
Watch Ford use this to engage the emergency brake and have a lockdown light for Christmas
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Richard White said:
If case numbers top 1000 again I can see restrictions being put in place to prevent another mass spread and exponential growth.
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Richard White said:
I'm expecting restrictions on gatherings shortly.
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It seems to me the rapid spread of the omicron variant is the main factor here. There are reports it is much more contagious than the delta variant; there have already been superspreader events in fully vaccinated people in Norway and Denmark. Seeing as 20% of Ontario's eligible population remains unvaccinated, and people are definitely less careful, it is not that far-fetched to think we might be facing more restrictions within a few weeks.
 
Bayer said:
It seems to me the rapid spread of the omicron variant is the main factor here. There are reports it is much more contagious than the delta variant; there have already been superspreader events in fully vaccinated people in Norway and Denmark. Seeing as 20% of Ontario's eligible population remains unvaccinated, and people are definitely less careful, it is not that far-fetched to think we might be facing more restrictions within a few weeks.
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Again, the data though—while showing more contagiousness—has yet to show it as more virulent. Zero attributed deaths yet, and even though it’s still early and data is lumpy, it’d be expected that we’d see one death so far. For all we know, omicron is the best-case scenario of being highly transmissible and relatively benign, which would likely end the pandemic much, much faster. It certainly seems that it may be more benign from all we know thus far. Until we know more, leaning to the negative is again, just fear mongering.
 
If Omicron is responsible for the recent rise in cases it would have shown up in the genomic data - not as individual reports here and there of the variant cropping up. Not to say that it won't get to that point in the (near?) future, but it isn't the case yet.

AoD
 
zang said:
Again, the data though—while showing more contagiousness—has yet to show it as more virulent. Zero attributed deaths yet, and even though it’s still early and data is lumpy, it’d be expected that we’d see one death so far. For all we know, omicron is the best-case scenario of being highly transmissible and relatively benign, which would likely end the pandemic much, much faster. It certainly seems that it may be more benign from all we know thus far. Until we know more, leaning to the negative is again, just fear mongering.
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It is entirely possible that the omicron variant will be less dangerous, but that remains unknown. I don't know why the issue of fear is consistently raised. This isn't about fear, it is about acting when it is relevant to do so based on past experience instead of, as our solicitor general once said, waiting to make sure people show up in our hospitals.
 
Bayer said:
It is entirely possible that the omicron variant will be less dangerous, but that remains unknown. I don't know why the issue of fear is consistently raised. This isn't about fear, it is about acting when it is relevant to do so based on past experience instead of, as our solicitor general once said, waiting to make sure people show up in our hospitals.
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Because if it turns out it's less virulent and more contagious, the last thing you want to do is restrict its ability to overtake Delta in the unvaccinated crowd.
 
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