GO Transit Electrification | Metrolinx

[crs1026]

At least, even if slower than planned, projects get done. There's a dozen or so major projects under construction - which is unprecedented. I fully expected them to cancel GO Expansion, Finch West and Hurontario, and not start anything else.

I fully expected the same. However, having been reaffirmed by the original Ford cabinet, very little has reached the finish line, and lots has quietly slipped in timing or vanished altogether.
I would actually suspect the Ford government to be losing enthusiasm for transit projects, as they have never produced victories that Ford can brag about.
Hence the much greater profile that highway projects have received lately.
Sure, DoFo will take credit when anything good happenns, but I bet he has stopped counting on transit to give him any political benefit.

- Paul

 

[junctionist]

A cynical but interesting theory that I recently heard on the street was that with new condo sales floundering, Doug Ford no longer sees value in new transit projects in terms of currying favour with the business community. Transit spending may therefore be reduced by his government going forward.

 

[nfitz]

I fully expected the same. However, having been reaffirmed by the original Ford cabinet, very little has reached the finish line, and lots has quietly slipped in timing or vanished altogether.

I wouldn't say lots have vanished altogether. With dozens more project planed in the 25-year planning timeframe, we all know that projects will slip in timing. We saw this under the Liberals as well - perhaps even worse.

 

[sixrings]

Didn't DoFo call the election early? Which means he'll probably do the same again? So maybe less than 4 years.

Yes but he called the election knowing he was going to win. Doug’s not bright but he did figure out something justin couldn’t.

 

[Amare]

Yes but he called the election knowing he was going to win. Doug’s not bright but he did figure out something justin couldn’t.

Kathleen Wynne wasnt able to figure it out either and she's the big reason we have Doug Ford today. Had she done what Trudeau did and resign when everyone was demanding her to (with her 16-18% approval rating at the time), we'd be in a whole different situation today.

Nevertheless though, GO Expansion as we knew it is complete vapor now. I honestly dont think we're going to see any form of electrification before 2050. Frankly i'll go as far as saying 2060, and that's me being optimistic.

 

[ARG1]

Kathleen Wynne wasnt able to figure it out either and she's the big reason we have Doug Ford today. Had she done what Trudeau did and resign when everyone was demanding her to (with her 16-18% approval rating at the time), we'd be in a whole different situation today.

The only reason why Trudeau resigning worked was because they managed to find a complete outsider to take the reigns. Had they chosen someone like Freeland to be leader, there's no chance they would've won. This was not a luxury that the OLP would've had access to back in 2018.

Nevertheless though, GO Expansion as we knew it is complete vapor now. I honestly dont think we're going to see any form of electrification before 2050. Frankly i'll go as far as saying 2060, and that's me being optimistic.

This is baseless fearmongering, there is literally no evidence to back this claim up. Even if we talk about the recent contract fall out with ONXpress OOI, that's literally just the operations division, and even then the more I talk with people that were involved with Metrolinx, the more I hear that it was very much a situation where no one group is directly responsible for the fallout. It was Canadian Risk Aversion butting heads with German Arrogance. The rest of DB that's involved with things like infrastructure and electrification is moving ahead just fine, the events that happened last week should be seen more as a contract rescoping rather than a complete fallout.

 

[Sunnyside]

I would actually suspect the Ford government to be losing enthusiasm for transit projects, as they have never produced victories that Ford can brag about.
Hence the much greater profile that highway projects have received lately.
Sure, DoFo will take credit when anything good happenns, but I bet he has stopped counting on transit to give him any political benefit.

- Paul

I hope they aren’t so short-sighted that they don’t realize the political gains come from a project until it’s done.

It might be that the Eglinton debacle, among others, is that much of a headache to deal with. And, that funding isn’t as plentiful as appears anymore. Imagine as Premier that your transit file(s) nearest to completion are complete disasters, and there’s nothing you can [edit: or will] do (I’m sure they’ve tried)?

Transit isn’t a loser, it’s unproven. It was not supposed to take a 3rd term to see their political value.

 

[Amare]

The only reason why Trudeau resigning worked was because they managed to find a complete outsider to take the reigns. Had they chosen someone like Freeland to be leader, there's no chance they would've won. This was not a luxury that the OLP would've had access to back in 2018.

I recall at the time, polls were saying anyone asides from Wynne would've given the OLP a fighting chance. She was indenial and wouldnt concede until the very end, and at that point it was far too late for them. But yes in regards to the Feds, I agree if it wasnt for Carney there's no chance they would've won.

This is baseless fearmongering, there is literally no evidence to back this claim up. Even if we talk about the recent contract fall out with ONXpress OOI, that's literally just the operations division, and even then the more I talk with people that were involved with Metrolinx, the more I hear that it was very much a situation where no one group is directly responsible for the fallout. It was Canadian Risk Aversion butting heads with German Arrogance. The rest of DB that's involved with things like infrastructure and electrification is moving ahead just fine, the events that happened last week should be seen more as a contract rescoping rather than a complete fallout.

I dont think it's fearmongering at all actually. Yes there have been provisions put into place in new infrastructure builds for things such as catenary poles (ie: at Whitby Maintenance facility, Davenport Diamond, etc.) there's still a whole hell of a lot of work to do in order to get anywhere close to electrifying even parts of the network. And the way Metrolinx has been working at their snails pace, do you honestly believe they will get around to completing all that work and then going ahead and procuring whatever equipment they choose, testing it, and running it in the next 25 years?

We have enough evidence with the current structure of Metrolinx, they are unable to deliver anything on time or on-budget.

 

[Sunnyside]

I recall at the time, polls were saying anyone asides from Wynne would've given the OLP a fighting chance. She was indenial and wouldnt concede until the very end, and at that point it was far too late for them. But yes in regards to the Feds, I agree if it wasnt for Carney there's no chance they would've won.


I dont think it's fearmongering at all actually. Yes there have been provisions put into place in new infrastructure builds for things such as catenary poles (ie: at Whitby Maintenance facility, Davenport Diamond, etc.) there's still a whole hell of a lot of work to do in order to get anywhere close to electrifying even parts of the network. And the way Metrolinx has been working at their snails pace, do you honestly believe they will get around to completing all that work and then going ahead and procuring whatever equipment they choose, testing it, and running it in the next 25 years?

I think electrification will in some way maintain an internal timeline set out today, but that timeline is planned at least twice as far as they previously thought/stated, and will end up taking twice as long as that, too.

Which I would pin at about 2040. We are literally capable of constructing it, at minimum as a zombie project. I imagine certain features implemented but others not (electric trains with today’s service or whathaveyou) until far later.

We have enough evidence with the current structure of Metrolinx, they are unable to deliver anything on time or on-budget.

*nor within reasonable or even excusable tolerances for both.

Everybody goes overtime and overbudget; we’re talking +30% delays regularly, and things shaping up to +50% on some stuff u/c. And forget budgets.

 

[nfitz]

Yes but he called the election knowing he was going to win.

So did David Peterson in 1990, and remember how that went?

If either of the opposition parties was less feckless, then I don't think it would have been as easy.

 

[afransen]

I recall at the time, polls were saying anyone asides from Wynne would've given the OLP a fighting chance. She was indenial and wouldnt concede until the very end, and at that point it was far too late for them. But yes in regards to the Feds, I agree if it wasnt for Carney there's no chance they would've won.

It would be quite something for a 15 year government to be re-elected, nevermind one as scandal-ridden as the OLP.

 

[PL1]

So did David Peterson in 1990, and remember how that went?

If either of the opposition parties was less feckless, then I don't think it would have been as easy.

The 1990 election was in early September on a beautiful day. The 2025 election was on a day with terrible weather. I'm not sure better weather would have helped the opposition parties, but it likely would have lead to an increase in the number of people voting. Also, in 1990, the media helped whip up the public at the Absolut waste of money for the election. Now, the media does sweet FA, and the public certainly has not punished Ford's lack of fiscal acumen

 

[Urban Sky]

I'm not sure everyone here appreciates just how extraordinarily ambitious (and almost unprecedented, even across the globe!) the GO expansion program is and how much of a gamechanger it will still be for the GTHA and Canada as a whole, even if we only get a few corridors electrified (say, Oshawa-Burlington and Union-Bramalea/Pearson) and equipped with ETCS within the next 20 years. And all of that is happening in addition to the other rail transit projects which are under construction simultaneously right now in Toronto:

• YNSE
• SSE
• Ontario Line
• Eglinton Crosstown (incl. West Extension)
• Finch LRT
• Hurontario LRT

Also, I believe that people here discount how epidemic dramatic cost overruns and delays are not just in Ontario, Canada or North America, but virtually across the globe. BER Airport, Stuttgart 21 and (as a non-transport example) the "Elbphilharmonie" in Hamburg are just the three most prominent examples from my own home country. Bent Flyvbjerg (a Danish researcher teaching in Copenhagen) has dedicated his entire career to teach about these very global failures:

Bent Flyvbjerg - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Megaprojects and Risk - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Frankietls]

The rest of DB that's involved with things like infrastructure and electrification is moving ahead just fine, the events that happened last week should be seen more as a contract rescoping rather than a complete fallout.

DB is not involved in Design & Construction or System. They have exited ONxpress completely, repatriated their expats, some transferred to India. Local hires are laid off.

 

[Sunnyside]

DB is not involved in Design & Construction or System. They have exited ONxpress completely, repatriated their expats, some transferred to India. Local hires are laid off.

This contradicts what many have stated, including news articles. What makes you say this?