Canada and the World

[kEiThZ]

Some urgent procurement:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633861435829919745

Government is soliciting feedback for the defence policy update:

Department of National Defence and Canadian Armed Forces open public consultations on update to Canada’s defence policy to all Canadians - Canada.ca

Today, the Department of National Defence and Canadian Armed Forces announced that they are launching public consultations with all Canadians on the Defence Policy Update (DPU), announced in Budget 2022.

www.canada.ca

 

[Towered]

Meanwhile, Australia is buying nuclear powered subs from the US. They always strike me as more serious when it comes to defense than Canada, and they're a significantly smaller country.

 

[kEiThZ]

Being a long way from their major ally and having a history of major powers in the region invading and bullying them, necessitates a cold hearted seriousness about defence and foreign policy, for Australia.

Canadians, benefiting from free trade and American protection, know that we will never have to put our money where our mouths are. That lends itself to smug sanctimony.

 

[Towered]

The situation in Haiti keeps getting worse:

Loading…

www.cbc.ca

 

[lenaitch]

The situation in Haiti keeps getting worse:

Loading…

www.cbc.ca

Not our problem to solve. Help out with financial aid - sure; but no Canadian boots on the ground. This is a no-win situation, and the US knows it, that's why they won't touch it.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Not our problem to solve. Help out with financial aid - sure; but no Canadian boots on the ground. This is a no-win situation, and the US knows it, that's why they won't touch it.

I am not sure if financial aid at this juncture even makes sense, considering the difficulties the NGOs have on the ground (like who else would you give the funds to?). They need to deal with this on their own.

AoD

 

[lenaitch]

I am not sure if financial aid at this juncture even makes sense, considering the difficulties the NGOs have on the ground (like who else would you give the funds to?). They need to deal with this on their own.

AoD

Good point. There needs to be some level of civil government and/or credible aid agency on the ground. When MCF pulls out, you know it's bad. Regardless, I don't want to see news footage of Canadian soldiers killing locals, and certainly don't want to see ramp ceremonies at Trenton for this perennially failed state.

Maybe the US can waive its Munroe Doctrine and encourage France to wade in. They were the last colonial power.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Good point. There needs to be some level of civil government and/or credible aid agency on the ground. When MCF pulls out, you know it's bad. Regardless, I don't want to see news footage of Canadian soldiers killing locals, and certainly don't want to see ramp ceremonies at Trenton for this perennially failed state.

Maybe the US can waive its Munroe Doctrine and encourage France to wade in. They were the last colonial power.

Honestly, killing locals (i.e. the intrasigents, though a dose of the innocents will inevitably be caught in the crossfire and reprisals) is probably the only way to get this done, but the optics is absolutely terrible. I am more concerned about the spillovers and the potential of a power vacuum that would encourage unfriendly powers to get involved and set up a foothold.

AoD

 

[Northern Light]

Honestly, killing locals (i.e. the intrasigents, though a dose of the innocents that will inevitably be caught in the crossfire and reprisals) is probably the only way to get this done, but the optics is absolutely terrible. I am more concerned about the spillovers and the potential of a power vacuum that would encourage unfriendly powers to get involved and set up a foothold.

AoD

Even just temporarily re-setting Haiti is a huge endeavor; in blood and treasure.

This is no easy task; for anyone.

Particularly when optics are considered, but regardless, really.

I think stabilizing Haiti in a way that achieves long-term success is probably a generational project and tens of billions of dollars, at least, and something that sadly, might well seem like colonialism.

I'm just not convinced, currently, that there is an internal path to stability.

Its certainly not something Canada can embark on alone, or bare primary responsibility for........

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Even just temporarily re-setting Haiti is a huge endeavor; in blood and treasure.

This is no easy task; for anyone.

Particularly when optics are considered, but regardless, really.

I think stabilizing Haiti in a way that achieves long-term success is probably a generational project and tens of billions of dollars, at least, and something that sadly, might well seem like colonialism.

I'm just not convinced, currently, that there is an internal path to stability.

Its certainly not something Canada can embark on alone, or bare primary responsibility for........

Yep - it will be have to be dictatorial and colonial - until the HDI is raised to a reasonable level. Totally antithetical to what Canadians stand for, but that's the unfortunate truth in this case.

AoD

 

[kEiThZ]

Honestly, killing locals (i.e. the intrasigents, though a dose of the innocents will inevitably be caught in the crossfire and reprisals) is probably the only way to get this done, but the optics is absolutely terrible. I am more concerned about the spillovers and the potential of a power vacuum that would encourage unfriendly powers to get involved and set up a foothold.

AoD

Yep. It's distasteful work. But it's getting to the point now where the West basically uses colonialism as an excuse for inaction on slaughter and even genocide.

Not saying we should get involved in power politics there. But we most definitely have the ability to target some large gangs there and to help their police forces (kit, training, mentoring, etc) so that they can restore security. It would be a very complex mission to be sure. Would have to be mostly RCMP led with the military mostly providing security, surveillance, training and intelligence support. But I don't think it's impossible for Canada to do.

It would be expensive though. Just the intervention isn't enough. Haiti needs aid to rebuild and kickstart economic growth. But several hundred million per year is a huge impact on a GDP of $21B. So it's definitely affordable to us.

 

[lenaitch]

Yep. It's distasteful work. But it's getting to the point now where the West basically uses colonialism as an excuse for inaction on slaughter and even genocide.

Not saying we should get involved in power politics there. But we most definitely have the ability to target some large gangs there and to help their police forces (kit, training, mentoring, etc) so that they can restore security. It would be a very complex mission to be sure. Would have to be mostly RCMP led with the military mostly providing security, surveillance, training and intelligence support. But I don't think it's impossible for Canada to do.

It would be expensive though. Just the intervention isn't enough. Haiti needs aid to rebuild and kickstart economic growth. But several hundred million per year is a huge impact on a GDP of $21B. So it's definitely affordable to us.

Mentoring implies a presence in-country. Depending on source, the RCMP is down about 10% in staffing - or about 1500 members, on top of vacancies caused by various leaves. Most other police services that contribute to these missions under the RCMP banner are similarly impacted. Given the culture of the country, any contingent would have to be heavily Francophone weighted. Military security, at least in the early stages, would have to be at least 1:1. You are quite correct that any permanent change would require a generational commitment. I doubt that municipalities and provinces are willing to step up to either the cost or time. Even if just the RCMP at the behest of and funded by the federal government, it would be same provinces and municipalities under contract policing that would bear the cost in reduced staffing.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Yep. It's distasteful work. But it's getting to the point now where the West basically uses colonialism as an excuse for inaction on slaughter and even genocide.

Not saying we should get involved in power politics there. But we most definitely have the ability to target some large gangs there and to help their police forces (kit, training, mentoring, etc) so that they can restore security. It would be a very complex mission to be sure. Would have to be mostly RCMP led with the military mostly providing security, surveillance, training and intelligence support. But I don't think it's impossible for Canada to do.

It would be expensive though. Just the intervention isn't enough. Haiti needs aid to rebuild and kickstart economic growth. But several hundred million per year is a huge impact on a GDP of $21B. So it's definitely affordable to us.

I don’t think we can avoid getting involved in local power politics the moment we get involved - especially given the large Haitian community here and the linkages. Remember the assassination of the previous president and the Canadian Haitian involvement?

AoD

 

[Towered]

Yep - it will be have to be dictatorial and colonial - until the HDI is raised to a reasonable level. Totally antithetical to what Canadians stand for, but that's the unfortunate truth in this case.

AoD

Sadly, I feel that an extended, decidedly un-democratic period of complete martial law is the only way to fix that place.

Perhaps China should take the lead? 🤣

 

[goreckm]

Have we learned nothing? Getting involved in another countries politics is ludicrous. To think we have the answers and can solve these problems with some training, or even military force is such hubris. It should absolutely not be our job to intervene here. Not our problem to solve.

If we want to help people, we should establish a program to bring in a large number of Haitian refugees into our country. That would help them, and be money well spent. Where are the people lined up behind that idea?