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46th Canadian General Election

Admiral Beez said:
Why do we post such dismissive at each other? We'd never say such things in a friendly discussion in person, unless we were about to storm out and take our marbles home.
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Lol. I would say it in person, if you know me. But, I also didn't mean it dismissively.
 
Insane.

I can't believe Trudeau is willfully walking into the woodchipper. Presumably, that poll was taken before the Christmas tax break, so that might shift the needle a bit. I don't see how anything in the Liberals' control is going to save them though.
 
Nobody I have spoken to thinks the tax break is a good idea. Obviously everybody is happy to take a little tax break, but it's such obvious short-sighted pandering with no vision or focus that nobody thinks it makes the Liberals look any better.
 
christiesplits said:
Devastating new poll for the Liberals by Mainstreet.

CPC: 47% (+13)
LPC: 17% (-16)
NDP: 17% (-1)
BQ: 7% (-1)
GPC: 6% (+4)
PPC: 4% (-1)
Others: 2%

Via Polling Canada on X
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Numbers like this could put the Liberals in danger even in seats like Toronto Centre and Rosedale. In both of those, the Liberals got around 50% and the NDP 25% so if you half the Liberal result and increase the NDP by a bit, it's all of a sudden competitive. Repeat that in cities like Vancouver, Ottawa, London, Hamilton, St. Catharines, Kingston, KW, Halifax, and you have a bloodbath in the Liberals' urban strongholds.
 
christiesplits said:
Devastating new poll for the Liberals by Mainstreet.

CPC: 47% (+13)
LPC: 17% (-16)
NDP: 17% (-1)
BQ: 7% (-1)
GPC: 6% (+4)
PPC: 4% (-1)
Others: 2%

Via Polling Canada on X
Click to expand...

These breakdowns, though perhaps not representative, are interesting:

- The Liberals have lost the 18-34 cohort but somehow double the percentage of 50+ voters are still willing to stay with them (probably residual memories);
- Where the Conservative support is weakest, Liberal support has instead bled into the other parties (i.e. the NDP, BQ);
- Education and income-wise, the Conservatives are weakest among the uni cohort, and yet also among those making under $75K.
- 12% of Latinos are willing to vote for the PPC (doesn't surprise me) lol

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evandyk said:
Nobody I have spoken to thinks the tax break is a good idea. Obviously everybody is happy to take a little tax break, but it's such obvious short-sighted pandering with no vision or focus that nobody thinks it makes the Liberals look any better.
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Dofo did the same thing, essentially a repeat of the plate renewal refund, and they felt it was worthwhile politically to repeat it.
 
jje1000 said:
These breakdowns are interesting:

- The Liberals have lost the 18-34 cohort but somehow double the percentage of 50+ voters are still willing to stay with them (probably residual memories);
- Where the Conservative support is weakest, Liberal support has instead bled into the other parties (i.e. the NDP, BQ);
- Education and income-wise, the Conservatives are weakest among the uni cohort, and yet also among those making under $75K.
- 12% of Latinos are willing to vote for the PPC (doesn't surprise me) lol

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I don't think you can read much into the racial breakdowns. The reported 0% support among several groups for several parties suggests a pretty small sample. I would say the thing that surprises me most is that PP has the highest support among First Nations, which Trudeau has kind of gone above and beyond to serve more than recent PMs. I don't think PP would be as attuned to the concerns of that community (see Doug ignoring First Nations consultations for 413).
 
evandyk said:
Nobody I have spoken to thinks the tax break is a good idea. Obviously everybody is happy to take a little tax break, but it's such obvious short-sighted pandering with no vision or focus that nobody thinks it makes the Liberals look any better.
Click to expand...
It's a dumb idea, but I'll gladly take the cheque and then vote against the party providing it. Those fools think my vote can be bought?
 
jje1000 said:
- The Liberals have lost the 18-34 cohort but somehow double the percentage of 50+ voters are still willing to stay with them (probably residual memories)
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Probably previous experience under Conservative governments, and a certain expectation as to how politicians are supposed to act.
 
afransen said:
Dofo did the same thing, essentially a repeat of the plate renewal refund, and they felt it was worthwhile politically to repeat it.
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The plate renewal thing was a win for Doug Ford because it fit in with an overarching program of encouraging driving (and congestion) by making it cheaper. This tax break is not obviously focused on anything the Liberals have been talking about or pursuing (not that there is much of a coherent strategy evident at all in the last few years) which is why it looks so dumb.
 
jje1000 said:
- The Liberals have lost the 18-34 cohort but somehow double the percentage of 50+ voters are still willing to stay with them (probably residual memories);
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The LPC has been great for this group (50+). Increased home prices. No cuts touch them. And dental care for retirees. If you're a young person, the LPC has been an absolute disaster for you. The flood of immigrants is driving up your rent, suppressing your wages and making good jobs hard to get.
 
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