2023 Toronto Mayoral by-election

[afransen]

Maybe in the coming decades BB will become moot as short range aviation evolves with autonomy and electrification. Battery advances are just starting to make larger battery powered aircraft feasible. eVTOL has the potential to make the need for a very large downtown airport much reduced.

 

[picard102]

We have a pretty small downtown airport though.

 

[christiesplits]

I think it's of interest to look at the polls from 2014 (via Wikipedia), the last real dog-fight mayoral election, to see where candidates were polling a month before the election. At this point in 2014, it was Tory's election lose. Tory ended up winning with 40% of the vote.

Alternatively, could we see something like 2022 Ottawa mayoral election, where the polling greatly under-reported eventual winner Mark Sutcliffe's support.

 

[Rainforest]

So, only 2/3 of residents are even 'familiar' with Billy Bishop; but a greater percentage have a favourable opinion? LOL

Is that so surprising though? I've never flew from or to the Hamilton airport and am not familiar with that airport, but I have a favorable opinion of the same. Just because more options means more convenience, and often lower prices thanks to competition.

My opinion might be right or wrong, but it would be counted if any pollsters called me about the Hamilton airport.

 

[EBT]

A Facebook friend was railing about Olivia Chow this morning, because they heard Chow say she would work to close the Island airport. This shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone as that has always been her stance, but voters have short memories. Could this be an Achilles’ heel in her campaign? Or a boost?

I believe it could be an Achilles' heel in her campaign *provided* any of her opponents were to raise it as an issue. Commercial flights have been operating out of Billy Bishop for decades now (going back 50 years) and I would bet that a large percentage of Toronto resident's will have at one time or another used the airport and will have had a good experience from the convenience of a downtown airport.

I live downtown and have always preferred flying out of the Island if possible. You have the convenience of a short TTC ride to the terminal (or a short walk if you live near the waterfront!) and a more relaxed experience inside the terminal. I also love the exhilarating views of the Toronto skyline on take-off and landing at Billy Bishop. You don't get that flying out of Pearson! The ONLY problem with Billy Bishop is the lack of destinations!

If I was running against Chow, not only would I make her pledge to shut down Billy Bishop a major plank in my platform, I would also run on extending the length of the runway to allow larger "jets" to operate from the airport. Porter Airlines has a growing fleet of Embraer E-2 airliners that could open up destinations across North America and beyond. For that matter Air Canada could operate it's growing fleet of (Canadian made) Airbus A220's from an extended runway. Past proposals to extend the runway were loudly opposed by the private yacht clubs around the harbor but how many residents of Toronto are fortunate enough to have a yacht moored in the Toronto harbor? I don't have one! Why was this wealthy elite allowed to dictate such an important decision for the rest of us?

The idea of shutting down Billy Bishop is an outmoded idea much like the idea of tearing down the Gardiner Expressway. Perhaps fifty years ago these seemed like good ideas. Fifty years ago few people had experienced the convenience of taking a commercial flight from the Island. Fifty years ago the Gardiner was not boxed in by condo's on both sides rendering it invisible, i.e. out of sight out of mind!

Olivia Chow is a politician whose political positions are rooted-in and stuck-in the 1980's (basically the identical positions of her husband Jack who has been dead for almost 12 years). I can't understand how her platform would resonate with the voters of today. Someone needs to ask Chow how shutting down Billy Bishop airport will solve the problems that Toronto residents are facing NOW! Will it make life better for the thousands of residents whose employment depends on Billy Bishop? Will it make life better for the thousands of downtown residents who currently enjoy the convenience of a downtown airport? Who will benefit and how?

Of course Chow's pledge to close Billy Bishop will only be an Achilles' heel for her campaign if one of her opponents makes it an issue. I would think this would be a perfect issue for Anthony Furey to raise but he strikes me as one of these timid "conservatives" who is afraid to take on any issue that may have a tinge of "controversy" to it. They think it is much safer to just sit on the fence. Who else will make this an issue?

If anyone has a good argument for shutting down Billy Bishop I would love to hear it.

 

[Northern Light]

If anyone has a good argument for shutting down Billy Bishop I would love to hear it.

Lets not go there again.

There's an entire thread here at UT devoted to this very subject. All 340 pages of it.

Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport | ?m | ?s | Ports Toronto | Arup

Matt Elliott has a column in today's Star on the future of the Island Airport.......... https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2022/07/26/jets-at-billy-bishop-airport-pierre-poilievre-might-be-winging-it-but-toronto-islands-need-to-change.html any TLDR for those who arent subscribed?

urbantoronto.ca

Suffice to say there are plenty of credible arguments for closing it; and many for keeping it; feel free to read through them all.

 

[adma]

Of course Chow's pledge to close Billy Bishop will only be an Achilles' heel for her campaign if one of her opponents makes it an issue. I would think this would be a perfect issue for Anthony Furey to raise but he strikes me as one of these timid "conservatives" who is afraid to take on any issue that may have a tinge of "controversy" to it. They think it is much safer to just sit on the fence. Who else will make this an issue?

Conversely, Furey making it an issue could well toxify the issue.

 

[LemonCondo]

Just leave it be. Don't close it, don't extend it. Is that a controversial opinion?

 

[Northern Light]

Just leave it be. Don't close it, don't extend it. Is that a controversial opinion?

Probably not a viable one.

Its likely a choice between extend and close; but go look at the thread I linked for all the detail on the why and wherefore; lets not clog this thread up w/this topic.

 

[Northern Light]

While I don't think all of the below is fair (some of it is); its existence certainly speaks to Brad's Challenges {seen on my FB feed)

Above this was the following caption:

With this photo to the right:

 

[Rainforest]

No sympathy for Mr. Bradford, but surprised that someone bothered to create a poster against a guy who polls in single digits and seems to be reliably stuck there.

It is going to be Chow vs Saunders, isn't it? Perhaps Matlow, or Hunter, or Bailao can make gains and approach the 2-nd place, but not Bradford.

 

[afransen]

I wonder if some of the folks failing to gain traction will drop out and endorse one of the dark horses in the race. It really is a shame that Doug struck down ranked choice ballots.

 

[christiesplits]

I wonder if some of the folks failing to gain traction will drop out and endorse one of the dark horses in the race. It really is a shame that Doug struck down ranked choice ballots.

With less than a month before the election, I anticipate we'll start to see radio and TV ads for the bigger campaigns. This is where fundraising prowess can make a big difference.

I'm on the fence about whether or not we see candidates drop out, especially since we're past the point where names can be taken off the ballot. When Pantalone was far behind the polls in 2010, he didn't drop out. Likewise for Hall, Nunziata and Jakobek in 2003.

The two exceptions might be Matlow and Bradford, both sitting councillors, who could have something to gain by endorsing the winning candidate. For instance, does Matlow get promised the gig of Deputy Mayor by Chow, and likewise for Bradford if he endorses Bailao? If they endorse the wrong candidate, they could lose their preferred committee roles, such as no longer Bradford chairing the planning committee.

One hypothetical (and pretty out there) scenario is Saunders, sitting in third place, endorsing Bailao, at the behest of Doug Ford. Bailao isn't the ideal mayor for Ford, but it's a much better option than Chow. Saunders could be promised a blum gig at a government agency for stepping aside.

 

[Pacer]

I wonder if some of the folks failing to gain traction will drop out and endorse one of the dark horses in the race. It really is a shame that Doug struck down ranked choice ballots.

As the ballots are already printed, the idea will likely not have that much effect of a running candidate endorsing another. It's actually a reason for most to stay in now.

Your absolutely right about ranked choice, as we'd actually get a consensus candidate as our mayor. First past the post should not be our process anymore.

 

[Admiral Beez]

A Facebook friend was railing about Olivia Chow this morning, because they heard Chow say she would work to close the Island airport. Could this be an Achilles’ heel in her campaign? Or a boost?

Your FB friend’s frustration aside, has June 2023 mayoral candidate Chow made a campaign promise to close the airport? When I Google such I find news from back in 2015 that Chow wanted to limit expansion of the airport for jets. I‘m a big fan of flying from Billy Bishop, but I think the omission of jets is reasonable.

At this point I’m assuming the winner will be Chow. In the latest poll, Chow’s got a ~35% lead over everyone else, nearly as much as the next three candidates Bailao, Saunders and Furey combined. Unless Chow does something dumb she’s got this locked. And with the power of incumbency she’ll be our mayor until she no longer wants it - unless she does a Tory and plucks a youngster from the staff room.