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2023 Toronto Mayoral by-election

Who gets your vote for Mayor of Toronto?

  • Ana Bailao

    Votes: 18 16.4%
  • Brad Bradford

    Votes: 3 2.7%
  • Olivia Chow

    Votes: 58 52.7%
  • Mitzie Hunter

    Votes: 2 1.8%
  • Josh Matlow

    Votes: 20 18.2%
  • Mark Saunders

    Votes: 4 3.6%
  • Other

    Votes: 5 4.5%

  • Total voters
    110
  • Poll closed .
There is a real fine line here though. This can easily be turned by many people into a race issue, like we see south of the border. Bringing too much light to this topic can burn everyone.

Sure, but in the most diverse major country in the world; where most of the people affected by low wages and high housing costs are visible minorities, I think there's reasonable space to make the argument, providing its expressed appropriately and with requisite nuance.

1) Its never about where the foreign students come from; its about the sheer volume of foreign students all at once, and the circumstances under which they are coming, which often don't work for them either.

2) Its never about rescinding an offer already made; if a foreign student is here, and wishes to continue their studies here, we made a deal and should abide by it; its about how many permits we issue next year, to people who are not yet here.

3) Its about being honest about the conditions people face when they come here, to them, before they come here (cost of tuition, cost of living, low wages etc.) and letting them make an informed choice about whether to apply. I expect more transparency would cut application numbers significantly.

4) Its about properly funding our colleges and universities and not making them seek out foreigners (actively recruit) solely in order to subsidize their budgets.

5) Its about saying to those same colleges and universities you cannot invite any student onto campus without the reasonable prospect of being able to offer them student housing on/adjacent to campus, should they wish it.

6) Its about disallowing any profit on student housing or meal plans, or education; its one thing to ask foreign students to pay the full cost of their education, its another to ask them to subsidize someone else's.

7) Its about disallowing full-time work by students, while in full-time studies. Its absurd, as it means under-performance and high absence rates from school for which one is paying a proverbial arm and a leg.

8) Finally we need to differentiate student types, broadly, I would put no limit on advanced graduate students coming here. That's a situation that is generally win-win for student and country. I'm less enthused with high levels of under-grads; though I certainly don't wish to unduly cap worthwhile student exchange. But I'm deeply concerned by the issue at Community Colleges which often lack any or any significant student housing, and which frankly don't provide the education quality to justify the sums extracted from foreign students.
 
New Mainstreet poll.

Chow - 35%
Bailao - 16%
Saunders - 12%
Matlow - 10%
Furey - 9%
Bradford - 6%
Hunter - 5%
Brown - 2%


Still an outlier on Bailao, but off 5 since Quito's previous effort.

Mostly consistent except for the distinct rise for Furey and Hunter coming back down again as compared to recent polls.
 
New Mainstreet poll.

Chow - 35%
Bailao - 16%
Saunders - 12%
Matlow - 10%
Furey - 9%
Bradford - 6%
Hunter - 5%
Brown - 2%

While we are still a month until Election Day, I don't think there is any reason to think Olivia Chow isn't going to win this. I'm not happy about a Mayor Olivia Chow... but I've accepted it at this point.
 
Still an outlier on Bailao, but off 5 since Quito's previous effort.

Mostly consistent except for the distinct rise for Furey and Hunter coming back down again as compared to recent polls.

Northern, you said you're an acquaintance with Bradford. Why do you think his campaign is struggling? He has the resources and a who's who of strategists. I provided some theories a few weeks back.
 
Northern, you said you're an acquaintance with Bradford. Why do you think his campaign is struggling? He has the resources and a who's who of strategists. I provided some theories a few weeks back.

We know each other, we're not personal friends; but he's my councillor, I've probably met him 7 or 8 times.

***

I haven't spoken with him since February.

***

I really have no idea what the campaign plan was from day one, because the moves here from the first have just made no sense to me.

The first time I thought he really stuck his foot in it was the budget debate at Council where his slag of Cllr. Bravo was grossly misleading, unreasonable and I don't think was received well even by those on the right.

He just kept going with really suspect choices from there.

The video showing him out eating 'ethnic' cuisine in Scarborough just came off completely wrong, as the worst form of pandering; then he moved on not only pegging to the right, but doing so without really bringing anything to the table.

This is a guy capable of innovative policy, he has been a City planner, has a spouse in the development industry, and has lived in the U.S. (Boston) as well, so he has a decent range of knowledge, irrespective of his natural tack to the centre-right.

But there really isn't any innovative policy irrespective of one's politics.

Additionally, he's alienated his core constituents; alot of them.

Not just w/the NDP bashing or the hard-right tack; but by blocking people on social media left, right and centre and not being responsive to routine, non-partisan constituency issues. Its really very peculiar. I don't see the upside for him.
 
A Facebook friend was railing about Olivia Chow this morning, because they heard Chow say she would work to close the Island airport. This shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone as that has always been her stance, but voters have short memories. Could this be an Achilles’ heel in her campaign? Or a boost?
 
A Facebook friend was railing about Olivia Chow this morning, because they heard Chow say she would work to close the Island airport. This shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone as that has always been her stance, but voters have short memories. Could this be an Achilles’ heel in her campaign? Or a boost?

Have to have another look at where she's polling strongest; but I would generally imagine it would poll slightly favourable in downtown areas vs suburban ones; but I would also say, I think the majority of people in Toronto have never flown out of the airport and its probably more of a shrug to them.

But that's entirely conjecture on my part.
 
I haven’t lived at the waterfront for a few years, but it was definitely a hot button issue. It hasn’t had much press lately so I don’t know if people have just come to accept it, or it’s because it was used so little the past three years thanks to the pandemic. It does seem to be more of a local issue than a city wide issue (friend mentioned above lives on the waterfront). Mostly I am curious as to whether it will be picked up by other candidates or the media or just be a non-starter.
 
We know each other, we're not personal friends; but he's my councillor, I've probably met him 7 or 8 times.

***

I haven't spoken with him since February.

***

I really have no idea what the campaign plan was from day one, because the moves here from the first have just made no sense to me.

The first time I thought he really stuck his foot in it was the budget debate at Council where his slag of Cllr. Bravo was grossly misleading, unreasonable and I don't think was received well even by those on the right.

He just kept going with really suspect choices from there.

The video showing him out eating 'ethnic' cuisine in Scarborough just came off completely wrong, as the worst form of pandering; then he moved on not only pegging to the right, but doing so without really bringing anything to the table.

This is a guy capable of innovative policy, he has been a City planner, has a spouse in the development industry, and has lived in the U.S. (Boston) as well, so he has a decent range of knowledge, irrespective of his natural tack to the centre-right.

But there really isn't any innovative policy irrespective of one's politics.

Additionally, he's alienated his core constituents; alot of them.

Not just w/the NDP bashing or the hard-right tack; but by blocking people on social media left, right and centre and not being responsive to routine, non-partisan constituency issues. Its really very peculiar. I don't see the upside for him.
Everything about his campaign paints him as an insincere opportunist to my eyes, and worse, a smarmy one at that. Very unappealing. Only Saunders is worse, and that's saying something.
 
A Facebook friend was railing about Olivia Chow this morning, because they heard Chow say she would work to close the Island airport. This shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone as that has always been her stance, but voters have short memories. Could this be an Achilles’ heel in her campaign? Or a boost?

Gil seemed to take a hit when he floated the idea.

87% of Toronto residents surveyed hold a favourable opinion of Billy Bishop.
 
Gil seemed to take a hit when he floated the idea.

87% of Toronto residents surveyed hold a favourable opinion of Billy Bishop.

LOL

There's a problem in that survey..........

1685129087941.png


Source: https://www.portstoronto.com/Media/PortsToronto/PortsToronto/Environics-BBTCA-Quant-Report-Deck.pdf

So, only 2/3 of residents are even 'familiar' with Billy Bishop; but a greater percentage have a favourable opinion? LOL

Only 40% of residents surveyed have used the airport, ever.

A number, I think, that still skews high to me, but I digress.
 
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Maybe it's heresy as a progressive and I'm not 100% solid on this opinion, open to other thoughts, but I like the Island airport and think we should maybe maintain it as an important piece of infrastructure as well.

I've only flown out of it once long ago (don't fly often in general) and it sounds like Porter has made the experience much worse since then, but even with that and with the UP, the experience of going to BB seems much more of a controlled comfortable better one that I would be much less anxious and stressed about vs. going to the large scale stressful environment and chaos of Pearson. And more convenient, faster for many depending on where you are. (Even with the UP, many downtown or even in other parts of the city would then have to travel to the UP, which could be replaced by just travelling to BB.)

Yes planes burn a lot of fuel and we shouldn't necessarily be encouraging lots of flying, but planes and flying are going to keep existing and I'm not convinced getting rid of this airport would have a meaningful impact on that front. People would just fly from Pearson. Perhaps local pollution is a significant issue I can't say it isn't. But how does it compare to say, the Gardiner and other car traffic?

Redundancy of having a second airport also seems like it might be a good thing going forward and I'm not convinced ripping it up is advisable from that perspective. From a security and safety perspective even. But also economic.

Maybe I'd be mad about the noise it if I lived close to it, but as someone who doesn't live close to the flightpath tbh I think seeing the planes flying in next to the city on the waterfront is really cool. And the experience of flying into the city to the Island airport and seeing the city on approach/takeoff is also incredible. I live close to trains and a loud bus goes by right outside my window all night. Cities come with noises and machines. But yeah I imagine the noise can bother people. But does it outweigh all the rest?

Could the space be used better as a public space, extension of the island parks connecting it to the city? Maybe, yeah I'm sure there could be some great stuff done there. But also the airport does have its positives and I'm not sure it's an obvious case that we should definitely get rid of the airport. I certainly wouldn't want Olivia Chow to blow up her shot at Mayor and lead to a conservative getting in office out of a promise or idea that she would fight against the Island airport.

Another thing I maybe think but could be convinced otherwise is that the Islands being only ferry-accessible might be a good thing for the Islands and making it accessible directly from the land has its trade-offs and potential issues — but we should have wayyy more ferries/ferry service.
 
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