Sandpit
Active Member
A bright patch of red in Thornhill (Royal Orchard) where the YNSE will swing east and go under homes.
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2022 43rd Ontario general election (June 2, 2022)
- Thread starter W. K. Lis
- Start date
christiesplits
Senior Member
Two observations:
- I’m surprised to see the NDP did well in the Condo Lands, like King West, CityPlace and Liberty Village. While these areas trend younger, they also have a lot of business-finance types and suburban transplants who I don’t typically identity as NDP voters.
- While incumbency is definitely a factor, the Liberals and NDP would still be wise to determine why Scarborough Guildwood and Scarborough Southwest bucked the trend of the Ford wave, especially since both ridings have sizeable ethnic voter bases, which are typically Ford strongholds.
- I’m surprised to see the NDP did well in the Condo Lands, like King West, CityPlace and Liberty Village. While these areas trend younger, they also have a lot of business-finance types and suburban transplants who I don’t typically identity as NDP voters.
- While incumbency is definitely a factor, the Liberals and NDP would still be wise to determine why Scarborough Guildwood and Scarborough Southwest bucked the trend of the Ford wave, especially since both ridings have sizeable ethnic voter bases, which are typically Ford strongholds.
adma
Superstar
In all those cases, in this snoozer of an election, think of it as inertia from 2018. Point blank. Case closed. Had a hundred votes shifted in Guildwood in '18, it'd be a *lot* bluer on the map in '22. (And unlike the blown-away Brampton NDP seats, the present status of the Scarborough seats didn't necessarily feel like a fleeting condition. Even SSW has a Stephen Lewis history behind it.)
Condo lands is a matter of status quo. The downtown NDP seats stayed NDP in much the same way the corresponding wards have stayed NDP, even if in their hearts, a lot of the voters would much rather shift red or blue. Even the so-called suburban transplants can shift with the political climate they're buying into...
christiesplits
Senior Member
This should be a big red flag for the NDP. Despite having a Brampton-raised, Sikh NDP leader, the NDP does not have any federal or provincial representation in Brampton.
adma
Superstar
Though admittedly, untill Jagmeet happened on the radar in 2011, Brampton was hardly the sort of place one would have expected NDP parliamentary representation in the first place. (Even 1990 proved elusive, though more due to uncongenial riding draws--a Bramalea/Malton-centric riding *would* likely have gone NDP that year).
The difference that longer-term baked-in NDP-voting tradition in the 905 can make is embodied by Oshawa remaining NDP under Jennifer French. In Brampton, it was all but a momentary Jagmeet-spurred phenomenon; so it may not be *as* big a red flag as it appears--though it definitely crimps any hopes for a sustained 905 breakthrough. (And TBH if they were serious about consolidating upon their Brampton strength, the NDP should have started working on Mississauga long ago. Like, there was something singularly half-baked about Brampton being an all-by-itself bubble of putative NDP competitiveness.)
Northern Light
Superstar
Ford's new cabinet to be sworn in on Friday.
christiesplits
Senior Member
Spoke to an NDP staffer friend and he said Toronto MPP Marit Stiles is “100% running” for NDP leader.