2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

[lenaitch]

There's no need to worry. They won't be allowed to takeoff without an airworthiness check. Transport Canada is just as interested in not having a giant crater in Mississauga as you are.

Do you think that Canada (or any country) just lets planes take off without proper checks? Time to put your tin hat away.

Chill, folks. You're not dealing with a complete idiot. My point was the thing has been sitting for 16 months and will need extensive maintenance work by techs who are familiar/certified with the type, have access to any needed parts and have access to the manuals - which likely aren't in English. Then they will need a non-Russian crew who are checked out on the type to come over and fly it. Because they were a non-scheduled specialized carrier, that fleet typically flew with its own maintainers, who have long since gone home.

 

[wopchop]

Chill, folks. You're not dealing with a complete idiot. My point was the thing has been sitting for 16 months and will need extensive maintenance work by techs who are familiar/certified with the type, have access to any needed parts and have access to the manuals - which likely aren't in English. Then they will need a non-Russian crew who are checked out on the type to come over and fly it. Because they were a non-scheduled specialized carrier, that fleet typically flew with its own maintainers, who have long since gone home.

It's a good thing then that Antonov is a Ukranian company. I am sure they will do their best to help the war effort.

 

[kEiThZ]

Reports that the rail line to Crimea (through Southern Ukraine) has been cut. Combined with the destruction of the command HQ a few days ago, I am hoping to see cascading and compounding logistics failures in a 1-2 weeks.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1667893691271266304

 

[DSC]

 

[kEiThZ]

View attachment 484447

The fun is just beginning....

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

It's a good thing then that Antonov is a Ukranian company. I am sure they will do their best to help the war effort.

There is still payback for the destruction of Antonov 225 to be had at some point.

View attachment 484447

Windows in the Russian Federation are bracing for a busy season of "activities".

AoD

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Reports that the rail line to Crimea (through Southern Ukraine) has been cut. Combined with the destruction of the command HQ a few days ago, I am hoping to see cascading and compounding logistics failures in a 1-2 weeks.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1667893691271266304

Same source:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1667920047199735809

AoD

 

[kEiThZ]

The race is on. Russian command is roasted marshmallow. Logistics lines are broken. Ukraine has to at least encircle Tokmak and preferably reach Melitopol before the Russians can fix command and logistics problems.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1667962808976429056

 

[kEiThZ]

Think Ukraine’s Offensive Has Started? Wait for the Heavy Brigades

There’s fighting underway across frontline Ukraine, Ben Hodges says the decisive moment will be when hundreds tanks hit Russian lines.

cepa.org

Good to see heavy hitters saying this. Ukraine is only getting started.

 

[kEiThZ]

I can't even explain how crazy this is. Ukraine just took out the headquarters of the entire command of Russian forces in Southern Ukraine. Putin visited the generals there for Easter. If they actually knocked off the generals and staff officers, their forces could be running around like a chicken with no head.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1667522816927756292

Russians are now starting to provide confirmation of those killed. Starting with a Major General.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1668370629723312128

Also, the Russians are arrogant and never learned from their other lower level command posts getting hit. While the rest of us are furiously writing lessons learned pieces. Apparently, to Russians, intellectual rigour and flexibility and scholarship are not worthy of warriors.....

The Graveyard of Command Posts: What Chornobaivka Should Teach Us about Command and Control in Large-Scale Combat Operations

To fight and win on the modern battlefield in large-scale combat operations, Army command posts must become more flexible, agile, and resilient while not sacrificing effectiveness.

www.armyupress.army.mil

 

[kEiThZ]

Good summary of the last year, for those who like more academic pieces. RUSI is the only professional military and strategic think-tank I pay for. Also, the oldest in the world. And some of the best academic work on warfare and strategic thought.

Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of Its Invasion of Ukraine

Russian tactics are changing as lessons are learned from military failures in the war in Ukraine.

rusi.org

 

[kEiThZ]

A slight divergence into European. Always interesting to me how what's left of the Austria-Hungarian empire lines up with Putin's Russia.

I found this thread and the accompanying article on how Orban manipulates Hungary's electoral system and constitution fascinating:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1668517347865550848

And also an interesting thread on Austria (where I have a few relatives) becoming one of Russia's Trojan horses in Europe:

How Austria became Putin’s Alpine Fortress

For Vienna, neutrality is simply good business.

www.politico.eu

At some point, the EU will really have to deal with countries like this. It's going to be hard to maintain a common front against Russia with these countries constantly placing corrupt political and commercial interests above Continental Security.

 

[Richard White]

A slight divergence into European. Always interesting to me how what's left of the Austria-Hungarian empire lines up with Putin's Russia.

I found this thread and the accompanying article on how Orban manipulates Hungary's electoral system and constitution fascinating:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1668517347865550848

And also an interesting thread on Austria (where I have a few relatives) becoming one of Russia's Trojan horses in Europe:

How Austria became Putin’s Alpine Fortress

For Vienna, neutrality is simply good business.

www.politico.eu

At some point, the EU will really have to deal with countries like this. It's going to be hard to maintain a common front against Russia with these countries constantly placing corrupt political and commercial interests above Continental Security.

The average hungarian is complacent at this point.

Among the older generation he is despised but they still subscribe to the communist way of thinking.

Basically hate the government in private and in public keep your mouth shut.

 

[kEiThZ]

The average hungarian is complacent at this point.

Among the older generation he is despised but they still subscribe to the communist way of thinking.

Basically hate the government in private and in public keep your mouth shut.

I don't buy this. It's still a country where voting would work. And from the looks of it, his gerrymandering would backfire spectacularly if he was actually unpopular.

What you say, sounds very similar to the excuses that Russians make for their country.

 

[Richard White]

I don't buy this. It's still a country where voting would work. And from the looks of it, his gerrymandering would backfire spectacularly if he was actually unpopular.

What you say, sounds very similar to the excuses that Russians make for their country.

Trust me. I'm staying with 60 year old people and visiting a 95 year old woman regularly.

I am quite familiar with their feelings about the government