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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

If anybody wants to understand the utility of the F-16s I highly recommend this thread from a former naval aviator. It's not as easy as most people think. But the possibilities it opens up because of integration with other weapons systems are substantial. Given the right weapons Ukraine could hold actually hold the Black Sea Fleet hostage.

 
I think had Putin understood that Ukraine was an impossible nut to crack he may have reconsidered.
Maybe. But he convinced himself the West and Ukraine were weak.

His entire plan was based on:

1) Ukrainians will surrender right away.

2) The West will not provide weapons because they are scared and can be manipulated.

3) The West will drop sanctions and weapons shipments when faced with skyrocketing energy prices.

All his assumptions were wrong. But now he has no way out that he can accept.
 
Maybe. But he convinced himself the West and Ukraine were weak.

His entire plan was based on:

1) Ukrainians will surrender right away.

2) The West will not provide weapons because they are scared and can be manipulated.
1) Like they did in 2014.
2) Like Trump demonstrated he was and could be.

Trump gave the impression that the US lacked resolve and interest with regards to Ukraine, and perhaps even admired Putin. Obama doing nothing to help Ukraine before Russia’s 2014 invasion did not help either. Without US resolve and action, the Euros would do nothing, looking the other way whilst buying Russian oil. Putin looked at how Obama and Trump did nothing to stop him, and figured Biden was the same. Unfortunately for Putin, Biden is a Cold War warrior.

Everyone always underestimates the USA, we see this buffoonish country beset by school shootings, opioid addictions, federal debt and partisan GOP/Dem broken governance, culture wars, racial violence, illegal immigration, evangelists chasing abortionists and burning books, failures in education infrastructure, and healthcare, etc, etc. But the place can pivot on a dime when poked, as 9/11 demonstrated.
 
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Meanwhile inside Russia,

"We are Russians just like you. We are people just like you. We want our children to grow up in piece and be free people, so that they can travel, study and just be happy in a free country. But this has no place in today's Putin's Russia, rotten from corruption, lies, censorship, restrictions on freedoms, repressions. In that Russia where a person's life means less than an official's wallet. In that Russia where a separate railway is being laid to the residence of the bunker grandfather instead of repairing roads in the regions. In a dictatorial country where children are separated from their parents for calling for peace, and teenagers are given life sentences. It's time to put an end to the Kremlin's dictatorship. Thanks to all those who support us. To everyone who sends us donations and smokes where necessary. Your support is what every day reminds us of our final goal on Red Square [in Moscow]. Be brave and don't be afraid, because we are coming home. Russia will be free!"

 
Brilliant insight...

He was called a warmonger and labeled as out of touch for suggesting that confronting and containing Putin should be a priority.

There's a lot of folks who cannot get over the imperialism of Iraq and some other US led conflicts to understand that not all wars are the same.
 
2) Western guilt leading to moral equivocation and cowardice. We screwed up in Iraq (Afghanistan is debatable). And ever since then, Western powers constantly avoid confrontation for fear of entanglement and escalation. There's also a certain guilt over our past attempt to impose Western morality on the Middle East.
Beyond harbouring Bin Laden, Afghanistan was never our fight. Had the Taliban turned over Bin Laden in 2001 (as GWB was demanding) I’d be good to leave the Afghans to sort out their own lives - without the West invading and occupying their country for two decades. After the West departed, Afghanistan just returned to what it was, what it always was, to its natural state. The Taliban Afghans (more accurately Pakistani-Afghans) defeated the other Afghans. One day other Afghans will overthrow the Taliban Afghans. Violent rule and regime change is their way of life, for centuries.

As for Iraq. I'm glad Chrétien kept us out of that one. Saddam should have played smarter, left Kuwait alone, continued to ally with the West against Iran... he'd still be there today, we'd have no 9/11, GW1, GW2, Arab Spring with its Syrian collapse, no/smaller Arab migrant crisis in Europe. And Canada wouldn't be worse off with the pre-GW1 status quo.

But Ukraine is different. If Russia successfully invades and takes over Ukraine, Canada is at greater risk. For starters, once Ukraine falls, NATO's Eastern European members will be the next target, bringing Canada into a global war with Russia a very short distance away from our northern border. And, the whole reason Canada has a post-WW2 military is to deter and if necessary kill Russians, which is why it's a good idea to supply all the weapons Ukraine needs. They're doing our intended job with our tools, but at no cost (yet?) in Canadian lives. There's no downside to helping Ukraine - these people are the heroes of 21st century Europe. And unlike Afghanistan, when the dust settles, Ukraine will quickly modernize, embrace western liberal democratic values and strive to contribute to the good of the world.
 
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But Ukraine is different. If Russia successfully invades and takes over Ukraine, Canada is at greater risk. For starters, once Ukraine falls, NATO's Eastern European members will be the next target, bringing Canada into a global war with Russia a very short distance away from our northern border. And, the whole reason Canada has a post-WW2 military is to deter and if necessary kill Russians, which is why it's a good idea to supply all the weapons Ukraine needs. They're doing our intended job with our tools, but at no cost (yet?) in Canadian lives. There's no downside to helping Ukraine - these people are the heroes of 21st century Europe. And unlike Afghanistan, when the dust settles, Ukraine will quickly modernize, embrace western liberal democratic values and strive to contribute to the good of the world.

Mostly agree. But I have some isolationist friends and family who have bought into the line that this is all about "globalists" and "the expansion of NATO" and that the Ukrainians are just American puppets. Needless to say that Russian propaganda is deep and exhausting. Especially now that it comes from both the left and the right. And it's non-stop if you're immigrant circles or have family in the Global South. Wears me down. And I don't know how we'll ever deal with these people. Or what happens as their voices (and votes) grow. They are all actively campaigning to cede geopolitics to Putin and Xi based on grievances (real and perceived) against American imperialism.

And even closer to home, it's pretty disheartening to see rhetoric from the Liberals not actually match our donations at such a critical time in the fight for the Ukrainians. The Europeans, at least, are stepping up. I'm honestly worried we won't do enough to rebuild Ukraine after the war, leaving them vulnerable to another round of this.
 
Mostly agree. But I have some isolationist friends and family who have bought into the line that this is all about "globalists" and "the expansion of NATO" and that the Ukrainians are just American puppets. Needless to say that Russian propaganda is deep and exhausting. Especially now that it comes from both the left and the right. And it's non-stop if you're immigrant circles or have family in the Global South. Wears me down. And I don't know how we'll ever deal with these people. Or what happens as their voices (and votes) grow. They are all actively campaigning to cede geopolitics to Putin and Xi based on grievances (real and perceived) against American imperialism.
It's not just people from the global south. My parents escaped from behind the iron curtain and hated Russia for decades. Now they're on Russia's side. They're so anti Communist that they reflexively support anything on the opposite side of the political spectrum, even if that's Putin's Russia. They're deep into a lot of conspiracy nonsense. I'm pretty sure the only thing keeping them in touch with reality is their kids.
 
It's not just people from the global south. My parents escaped from behind the iron curtain and hated Russia for decades. Now they're on Russia's side. They're so anti Communist that they reflexively support anything on the opposite side of the political spectrum, even if that's Putin's Russia. They're deep into a lot of conspiracy nonsense. I'm pretty sure the only thing keeping them in touch with reality is their kids.

I feel you. I have so many Indian family and friends who guzzle Kremlin propaganda by the gallon. Including terminology like calling it an "SMO". It's exhausting.

Small hope that if Ukraine does well, they'll see the light. But I know Russian talking points will be prepared then too.

My worry is that these viewpoints are really piling up on the left and right. How long before the CPC and NDP start demanding we cut all cooperation with Ukraine because it's some American imperialist adventure?
 
I feel you. I have so many Indian family and friends who guzzle Kremlin propaganda by the gallon. Including terminology like calling it an "SMO". It's exhausting.
I find Indians’ support of Russia perplexing. Tsarist Russian would have invaded India if they could have. Indians have far more cultural, economic, political, societal and demographic ties with Britain than they ever had with Russia.
 

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