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2003 Municipal Election: Prediction for Voter Turnout in Toronto



I'm predicting from 45% to 50%. This is based on heavy media coverage and the sudden wake-up call for many regarding civic politics over the recent year.

I still don't think...

1) ...young ppl between 18-25 are going to turn out in droves. They are typically apathetic and really more concerned about themselves--not seeing the bigger picture
2) ....there will be high participation rate for ethnic groups
3) ....many see local politicians to have any real clout. They see the main power in provincial and federal levels.
4) ...many are suffering from "voter fatigue" after the provincial election (more than once every four years is too much for some)
5)...many people even realize there's an election going on. People live outside of the media universe and couldn't care less.

On the other hand...They may head to the polls because they want to see some action on the following (in no particular order):

1) City Hall mismanagement and scandal
2) a need to find a leader with Vision and direction for city of Toronto and the Surrounding Region
3) Healthcare, Education, Transit issues and our funding relationship with upper levels of gov't.
4) Crime (especially from recent events)
5) Homelessness, high poverty levels
6) Waste Management issues
7) User fees-Property Tax, declining community services
8- Gridlock
9) Immigration issues (job placement, support)
10) The collateral damage of bumbling Mel and our city's reputation