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I suspect there's still a few weeks till major combat. But the shaping is really starting to show. First we see that Ukraine is targeting the most skilled personnel and command nodes...

That colonial history plays a part. But also, I don't think most people really understand the extent to which the Soviet Union penetrated the government and society of the newly born Republic of India during the Cold War. Not even most Indians know and understand this history:

Staff college papers are good academic work. But they are not policy or technical discussions and can't use classified material. With that caveat in mind.... Yes, a lot of that discussion is probably still valid. But there are broader considerations, especially in a world where the Chinese...

It's interesting to see the mainstream analyst view get closer to mine: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-china-war-nuclear-submarines-aukus-taiwan-1.6856166

I feel you. I have so many Indian family and friends who guzzle Kremlin propaganda by the gallon. Including terminology like calling it an "SMO". It's exhausting. Small hope that if Ukraine does well, they'll see the light. But I know Russian talking points will be prepared then too. My...

Mostly agree. But I have some isolationist friends and family who have bought into the line that this is all about "globalists" and "the expansion of NATO" and that the Ukrainians are just American puppets. Needless to say that Russian propaganda is deep and exhausting. Especially now that it...

You might be right that we're backed into a corner. But also, none of this is sustainable. It will break eventually, one way or another.

He was called a warmonger and labeled as out of touch for suggesting that confronting and containing Putin should be a priority. There's a lot of folks who cannot get over the imperialism of Iraq and some other US led conflicts to understand that not all wars are the same.

Looking back, this really paints Obama's actions in a different light.

If you're wondering how all these different donations work together. This is a rare and solid thread explaining how linked systems can work. Also, something NATO doesn't much discuss.

https://www.saltwire.com/atlantic-canada/opinion/scott-taylor-if-submarines-are-replaced-who-will-serve-on-them-100856207/

Maybe. But he convinced himself the West and Ukraine were weak. His entire plan was based on: 1) Ukrainians will surrender right away. 2) The West will not provide weapons because they are scared and can be manipulated. 3) The West will drop sanctions and weapons shipments when faced with...

Also, a Russian partisan group just invaded Russia, from Ukraine..... Putin getting a taste of his own medicine:

If anybody wants to understand the utility of the F-16s I highly recommend this thread from a former naval aviator. It's not as easy as most people think. But the possibilities it opens up because of integration with other weapons systems are substantial. Given the right weapons Ukraine could...

Putin never wanted peace. Just wanted territory. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-war-began-putin-rejected-ukraine-peace-deal-recommended-by-his-aide-2022-09-14/

It's real. https://www.npr.org/2022/05/31/1102035346/in-two-photos-see-how-bucha-is-erasing-the-scars-of-russias-invasion And a big part of this is that the Ukrainians see rebuilding as part of their resistance to a Russia seeking to erase their identity and healing against trauma.

Watch this. Really worthwhile. And Theiner knows this game. He was a former staff planner.